Super Bowl LVI First Look: Bengals, Rams, and Tom…

NFL Conference Championship – The Los Angeles Rams overcame a 17-7 deficit, their usual sampler platter of self-inflicted mistakes, and three years of bad mojo in a 20-17 victory over the San Francisco 49ers. The Cincinnati Bengals delivered an overtime 27-24 upset that was both stunning and completely in character for both them and the self-destructive Kansas City Chiefs.

Let’s kick off Walkthrough with a closer look at the participants in Super Bowl LVI. After that: Fickle Tom Brady, coaching carousel stuff, and awards!

NFC Champions: Los Angeles Rams

How the Rams Got Here
The Rams went all in. All. The. Way. In. Arm down the garbage disposal to the elbow to fetch the wedding ring way in. No food or drink for 24 hours before this invasive medical procedure way in.

And now they are one game away from coming out the other side. Sunday’s victory wasn’t artful, but they benefited from huge plays by both their big names (Cooper Kupp: 11-142-2) and their allegedly thin bench: reserve tight end Kendall Blanton caught five passes for 57 yards in relief of injured Tyler Higbee; backup linebacker Travin Howard (filling in for Ernest Jones, who was filling in for Kenny Young) hauled in the game-winning interception.

The Quarterback: Matthew Stafford
A stalwart Detroit Lions expatriate with Hall of Fame talent, a Ring of Honor resume, and a blooper reel that makes Carson Wentz wonder why he’s the one who is always getting picked upon.

Rams Offense
The Rams led the NFL in 40-plus-yard pass plays (18) and led all playoff teams in interceptions thrown (18). No team comes close to emptying its backfield as often: 182 regular-season pass attempts from an empty backfield, 19 times in the first two playoff games. Kupp is the explosive playmaker, while Odell Beckham Jr. is now more of a possession guy working underneath: way to break casting tendencies, guys!

Rams Defense
Great at stopping deep passes (second in DVOA) and outside runs (best in the league in adjusted line yards around left end, second around right end). Merely average when stopping runs between the tackles and short passes over the middle, which is why the 49ers gave them fits on Sunday and the last 321 times they faced each other.

The Rams field two Hall of Famers (Aaron Donald and Von Miller), a perennial Pro Bowler (Jalen Ramsey), and quality starters Leonard Floyd and (when healthy) Taylor Rapp, plus an inspirational statue of Eric Weddle in the secondary, but there’s not a lot of talent beyond that.

Rams Special Teams
Brandon Powell has taken over return chores and provided a huge boost down the stretch and in the playoffs. It’s worth mentioning now that Johnny Hekker is 14-for-23 passing for 186 yards, one touchdown, and 13 first downs in the regular season, with one 12-yard fake punt against the Saints in the 2018 playoffs.

Bottom Line
The last three seasons can be interpreted as Sean McVay and the organization’s concerted effort to avoid all the mistakes that doomed them in Super Bowl LIII. They are no longer settling for Jared Goff at quarterback. They are no longer tactically or financially committed to a Todd Gurley-type (yes, Gurley still counted against the cap this year, but it’s the Super Bowl now, so whatever). Sean McVay no longer needs to win every chess match to generate points, which is a good thing after watching him squander timeouts and challenge flags on Sunday.

These Rams, flawed as they are, look more like the Greatest Show on Turf Rams than the 2018 team that met a miserable fate against the Patriots. These Rams are also almost custom-built to beat their next opponent: Donald to spearhead the pass rush against a shaky offensive line, Ramsey to neutralize Ja’Marr Chase, Stafford-to-Kupp-and-Friends to match Joe Burrow and the Bengals big play for big play. All the Rams must do is eliminate the weighty mistake clusters that often plague them in big games.

Then again, that’s what the Chiefs thought both times they lost to the Bengals.

AFC Champions: Cincinnati Bengals

How the Bengals Got Here
The Bengals drafted college teammates Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase, added them to a roster that already had some impressive skill position talent, and put together what looked like a fun little wild-card team.

Then everyone on the Ravens got hurt, Ben Roethlisberger collapsed into a pile of desiccated bones, and Baker Mayfield was swallowed whole by the narrative goblins. Then the Bengals beat a Raiders team with no coach and a Titans team with no clue in the first two playoff rounds. Finally, the Bengals overcame a 21-3 deficit thanks to multiple Chiefs goal-to-go meltdowns and other mistakes (plus brilliant play by Burrow and others) for a stunning 27-24 overtime victory and the right to go to the franchise’s third Super Bowl.

The Quarterback: Joe Burrow
He’s the inheritor of early Tom Brady’s unflappable working-man charm, not to be confused with latter-day Brady’s privilege-marinated one percenter, but at least not a bloviating, overaged dormitory know-it-all like Aaron Rodgers charm.

Burrow looked a little like the young Brady on Sunday: finding his secondary targets, staying cool in a collapsing target, and distributing clutch passes to everyone from Tee Higgins to Samaje Perine. Now let’s hope he doesn’t veer too far in the less-relatable international pretty boy direction…

JB9 😏 pic.twitter.com/Fw9stNB3lB

— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals) January 31, 2022

Too late.

Bengals Offense
Two true outcomes: long gain or sack, with some Joe Mixon handoffs mixed in so everyone can catch their breath.

The Bengals finished second to the Rams in 40-plus-yard pass plays in the regular season (16) but third in sacks allowed (53). Burrow also had a high interception rate early in the season but has only been picked off twice in his last six games, including Sunday.

Bengals Defense
Jessie Bates, D.J. Reader, Trey Hendrickson, and Chidobe Awuzie are excellent. Everyone else … well, they’re here, aren’t they?

The Bengals defense ranked 31st on first downs, 28th in the red zone, 24th in first halves, and 25th against both deep passes and passes over the middle during the regular season. That’s not the profile of a typical Super Bowl participant, let alone a Super Bowl winner.

Bengals Special Teams
Rookie kicker Evan McPherson has been outstanding, with another game-winner and a 52-yarder in the fourth quarter against the Chiefs. For a team that appears to be built entirely out of playmaking receivers, the Bengals don’t get much from their return game. Chris Evans is currently handling kickoffs, Trent Taylor punts, and both are adequate.

Bottom Line
The Bengals have tasted like cookie dough all season. Sure, it’s delicious. But is it fully baked? It took a squishy schedule and an improbable amount of Burrow-to-Chase CGI highlights to get this far. Expecting them to continue down the same path has grown more unlikely every week. Yet it keeps happening every week. As Aaron Schatz tweeted on Sunday, the Bengals recorded the third-lowest DVOA of any Super Bowl participant since 2003. It’s hard to be a longtime Football Outsider and feel great about the Bengals’ chances against the Rams.

The 2007 Giants, who rose from 9-7 semi-relevance to pull off the greatest Super Bowl upset since the days of bell bottoms, are the Bengals’ aspirational figures. Zac Taylor is no Tom Coughlin by a long shot (Taylor’s play calling was low-key terrible for much of Sunday), the Bengals front four cannot hold a candle to Justin Tuck and company, and no, Joe Burrow isn’t quite peak Eli Manning as an all-around quarterback just yet. But if any team is as likely as the 2007 Giants to pull off a Super Bowl upset because some rando catches a game-changing pass against his helmet, it’s the 2021 Bengals.

The Way of the Househusband

Tom Brady wants to retire on his own terms. He also didn’t want to overshadow Sunday’s games or Super Bowl LVI, at least more than a little tiny bit.

So when Adam Schefter and Jeff Darlington broke the news that Brady was planning to retire on Saturday afternoon, Team Brady fired all of their photon torpedoes: an angry missive from agent Don Yee, some “we don’t know nuttin'” quotes from the Buccaneers, even a staunch denial from dear ol’ Papa Brady.

Way to not overshadow anything, Tom! And sending proxies to angrily snarl at the media all weekend ain’t exactly going out on your own gracious terms, either. Instead of filling the airwaves and Internet with glowing hosannas about your magnificence, we’re now all speculating about a silly little parlor drama.

Brady is not just a person. He’s a mini-corporation married to a larger multinational corporation. He cannot just wake up, brush his teeth, tell Giselle “It’s time,” send an email to Jason Licht and post a thank you on Instagram. He has an agent, publicists, TB12 people, and others who must all be in the loop. And then there are Giselle’s battalions of handlers: there are magazines none of us read in languages few of us speak eager to report on what’s next for the international tastemaker now that her arm candy isn’t blundering off to places such as Indianapolis or Charlotte for business a few times per year. What’s coming isn’t a retirement but the abdication of a throne, as well as the launch of a new brand: Tom Brady, GOAT Househusband. (A Walkthrough anime parody is sure to come soon). Preparing for such events takes time and human resources.

The retirement news got leakier as the in-the-know circle widened late last week. My guess is that Brady planned an official announcement for this week’s lull before the Super Bowl rush. Schefter and Darlington got enough confirmed sources to beat Brady to the punch. Had they not done so, some fashion paparazzo would have. Brady didn’t get the exact flavor of retirement fawning he wanted, but the problem with becoming part of one of the most glamorous couples on earth is that lots of people are paying attention to your every move.

So now, Brady will either:

• Retire as planned, but procrastinate about announcing it until after the Super Bowl to justify Saturday’s full-court press; or
• Play one more full year of a grueling and dangerous sport in his mid-40s, against his own inclinations and the obvious desires of his spouse, simply to spite a few over-eager media insiders.

Brady will probably officially retire on about February 16, a few days after the Super Bowl but far enough in the future to make it appear that he really was carefully considering his options this weekend. But there’s a 10% chance he does the spite thing. He is Brady, after all. And he could waltz onto the field wearing a World’s Greatest Dad baking apron next year and still win the NFC South.

Eliminati

Let’s take one last look at the two teams eliminated on Sunday and set the stage for what’s to come for them in 2022.

San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers self-improvement plan seems simple enough:

• Step One: Foist Jimmy Garoppolo off on some franchise that believes in Quarterback WINZ. It doesn’t have to be Matt Rhule and the Panthers, though it’s probably Matt Rhule and the Panthers. Barring that, just cut Garoppolo: his 2018 contract was front-loaded for just this eventuality.
• Step Two: Develop Trey Lance.
• Step Three: Get healthier/better at cornerback.
• Step Four: Win Super Bowl LVII.

Kansas City Chiefs
Each year, the Chiefs slip a teensy bit further from a championship. They also look more and more vulnerable to their own excesses: Chiefs fans must be a little worried about Patrick Mahomes’ awful decision-making—and Andy Reid’s hinky play calling—near the goal line before halftime and at the end of regulation.

There will be hand-wringing about the Chiefs’ l-l-legacy among the folks who fret about how Sunday’s results will be interpreted in 10 years, even though such folks typically have no memory of anything which happened 10 years ago. Sunday’s results aside, the Chiefs will remain in an AFC arms race with the Bills (and, perhaps, the Bengals) for the next few years. Their offseason goal will be to maintain their nucleus, including free agent Tyrann Mathieu, while adding quality reinforcements at cornerback and making sure the run defense doesn’t give up the farm. Their offense needs a few screws tightened, not an overhaul.

Carouselambra

If NFL teams keep making semi-logical head coaching hires and sound/socially-responsible general manager hires, it’s really gonna mess up my content model: all Walkthrough really knows how to do is criticize and shame. With that in mind, Walkthrough now provides both actual opinions and reasons for extreme pessimism for each of this cycle’s hires and (at press time) hot rumors.

Giants Hire Brian Daboll as Head Coach
Actual Opinion: Becoming a Bills satellite organization makes much more sense these days than becoming a Patriots satellite organization or becoming a 2007-2011 Giants tribute band again, especially since the 2007-2011 Giants were just a 1986-1990 Giants tribute band in the first place.

Reason for Extreme Pessimism: John Mara sounds convinced that Daniel Jones is Eli Manning. Daboll and Joe Schoen are probably shrewd enough to realize that Jones is neither Eli nor Josh Allen. Prepare for extreme meddling.

Vikings Hire Kwesi Adofo-Mensah as General Manager
Actual Opinion: A deserving candidate of color? Check. An analytics dude? Check. Someone from Cherry Hill, New Jersey? CHECK. Damnit! I want to rip the increasingly incestuous relationship between the Vikings and Browns, a pair of organizations that present themselves as forward-thinking but keep fielding wild-card-caliber old-timey running-and-defense teams, but I just. Cannot. Do it.

Reason for Extreme Pessimism: Walkthrough cannot tell at this point if Jim Harbaugh is a Super Bowl-caliber NFL head coach or the shape-shifting Skrull that assumed the identity of a Super Bowl-caliber NFL head coach and hopes no one notices that he’s just performing a broad caricature of the real guy.

Broncos Hire Nathaniel Hackett as Head Coach
Actual Opinion: Solid hire. Hackett is allegedly the one quasi-authority figure on earth that Aaron Rodgers likes and respects, so naturally Broncos fans are stoked about the possibility of getting Rodgers in a package deal. And yes, it could happen: the salary cap logistics and other details are workable.

Reason for Extreme Pessimism: If a Rodgers deal goes down, imagine how His Royal Victimhood will react when Hackett, his former therapy pet of a coordinator, is suddenly forced to play the bad cop once in a while.

If a Rodgers deal doesn’t go down, who the heck will quarterback the Broncos?

Bears Hire Matt Eberflus as Head Coach
Actual Opinion: the Eberflus/Ryan Poles coach/GM combo looks solid enough; Luke Getsy, another LaFleur-flavored chip off the Shanahan-McVay block, is a reasonable choice to serve as Justin Fields’ developer.

Reason for Extreme Pessimism: Eh, the Bears should climb back to the middle of the pack quickly enough. As for the Colts, Frank Reich’s Indianapolis staff has undergone significant brain drain in the last two years: first Nick Sirianni on the offensive side of the ball, now Eberflus. That would be nothing to worry about if the Colts were coming off a 12-win season and had a stable quarterback situation. But of course that is not the case.

Raiders Zeroing in on Josh McDaniels as Head Coach, Dave Ziegler as GM
Actual Opinion: Handing the organization over to a pair of Patriots hangers-on makes more sense than handing it over to a pair of TV guys, but not by much.

Reason for Extreme Pessimism: Here’s Walkthrough’s early odds on how the McDaniels era ends:

• McDaniels quits in a huff after two seasons: 40%
• McDaniels quits in a huff after two weeks: 20%
• McDaniels quits in a huff two hours after he’s announced, forcing Mark Davis to pivot to his second choice: Josh McCown’s golden retriever: 10%
• McDaniels and Ziegler draft the way McDaniels and Brian Xanders drafted for the 2009-2010 Broncos, making Mike Mayock look like Jimmy Johnson with precognition: 10%
• Chaotic Vegas power struggle that turns into Martin Scorcese’s last great feature film: 10%
• Three more years flirting with a wild-card berth while McDaniels simultaneously praises and low-key negs Derek Carr and the Raiders compete with the Texans for the ever-diminishing trickle of veteran talent from Foxborough. In other words, not much difference from the Gruden-Mayock regime, except with ex-Patriots instead of Clemson alum: 9%
• Actual success: 1%

Walkthrough Awards

With only two games to discuss, let’s keep this quick.

Offensive Line of the Week
The Bengals offensive line looked like it was going to be overwhelmed in the first quarter on Sunday. But they stabilized enough to help Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, and Samaje Perine help themselves: Burrow was only sacked once, Mixon rushed for 88 yards, and Perine delivered two big plays on screen passes. So let’s hear it for the much, much-maligned unit of Jonah Williams, Quinton Spain, Trey Hopkins, Hakeem Adeniji, and Isaiah Prince. They’re heading to the Super Bowl! Let’s hope they don’t “Last Year’s Chiefs” it up!

Defender of the Week
Sam Hubbard walks away with this award for a pair of sacks on the final Chiefs drive that took them from the Bengals’ 4-yard line back to the 26-yard line (and nearly doomed the Chiefs when Patrick Mahomes coughed up the football).

Special Teamer of the Week
Mitch Wishnowsky gets this award for pinning the Rams at the 3-yard line and 11-yard line on punts. Special teams ace Trent Sherfield gets honorable mention for downing the first of those punts. Yes, the Rams drove 97 yards for a touchdown after that first punt, but they were stopped on downs in the second, and the Rams only have so much quality execution per week in them.

Best Supporting Actor in Someone Else’s Highlight
Check out Mecole Hardman chewing up the scenery after this fair catch:

And the Oscar goes to … Mecole Hardman pic.twitter.com/yEJ4KNbnk8

— Jason McIntyre (@jasonrmcintyre) January 30, 2022

It’s the split-second delay that really sells it. Hardman looked like the toddler who falls down, then looks around to see if grandma is watching before deciding whether or not to cry.

Honorable mention goes to Taybor Pepper for intervening uselessly in the Jalen Ramsey-Robbie Gould beef.

Jalen Ramsey getting in the face of … Robbie Gould? 😐pic.twitter.com/SiS0jdU5a8

— 49ers on NBCS (@NBCS49ers) January 31, 2022

“Imma protect my kicker! Imma … wait, I’m the long snapper. I’m even more replaceable. Never mind.”

And finally, 49ers guards Laken Tomlinson and Daniel Brunskill execute textbook pulling and blocking technique on this play. Unfortunately, they pull and block each other.

Deebo is bailing the hell out of some of these guys. The guards ran into each other on first down because they both pulled pic.twitter.com/e0UBUBSuvl

— Justis Mosqueda (Tank 2022 Thought Leader) (@JuMosq) January 31, 2022

Burn This Play

I mean, c’mon Chiefs…

What a stop by the @Bengals defense to end the half! #NFLPlayoffs #RuleTheJungle

📺: #CINvsKC on CBS
📱: https://t.co/dKNUFkxkbU pic.twitter.com/Rxtmq9cnBt

— NFL (@NFL) January 30, 2022

Unseen after that catastrophe: Patrick Mahomes trying to call for a timeout. The Chiefs were out of timeouts. Mahomes almost certainly knew that. But after that decision, he had to do something with his hands.

Super Bowl and Senior Bowl coverage

Dramamine? Packed. Clean COVID tests? Acquired. Draft prospect lists? Collated. Appetite for barbecue? Never absent.

I’m headed to Mobile, Alabama, for Senior Week first thing Monday morning. Look for updates and analysis in Walkthrough and on the @FBOutsiders and @MikeTanier Twitter feeds. It’s all part of our expanded 2022 draft coverage here at Football Outsiders. Not only will you be getting QBASE, Playmaker Score, and the other tools you know and trust, as well as Derrik Klassen’s exclusive deep prospect dives, but also all the scouting reports, analysis, and interviews that I provided for Bleacher Report and other outlets in the past. Plus: the FO Forty, not one but two in-depth lists of the top prospects, both overall and at the skill positions.

Next week, Walkthrough is headed to Los Angeles to cover Super Bowl LVI! Again, look for a mix of the type of coverage you have come to expect from Football Outsiders with the sort of work I used to provide elsewhere, including reporting from the big game itself.

These are my first big reporting junkets since before the pandemic, and I am stoked to be hitting the road again. Be sure to follow along, both over the next two weeks and throughout draft season!