Rams Winning Despite Pitiful Ground Game

NFL Conference Championship – The least valuable running back of the championship round, Sony Michel, plays for the L.A. Rams. The least valuable running back of the divisional round, Cam Akers, also plays for the L.A. Rams. The least valuable running back of the wild-card round plays for Pittsburgh, but Akers and Michel were still pretty bad, finishing with negative DYAR between them. Week after week, the Rams get nothing out of their ground game. But they’re winning anyway, and now their passing attack, defense, and special teams have carried their impotent rushing offense to the Super Bowl.

The Rams’ rushing totals through three playoff games are putrid: 97 carries for 283 yards and a 2.9-yard average, with as many fumbles (two) as touchdowns. Yet somehow the details make things even worse. The two touchdowns were both third-and-1 goal-line sneaks by Matthew Stafford, but even including those plays Los Angeles has struggled in short yardage, converting on only eight of 16 runs with 1 or 2 yards to go. (League average success rate on those runs was over 70% this season.) As a team, they have run for 14 first downs with six runs of 10 yards or more while being stuffed for no gain or a loss 25 times (and no, that does not include kneeldowns). On first-and-10, they have been stuffed more often they have gained the 5 yards necessary to count as a successful play, 11 to 10. Overall, the Rams have gained successful yardage on runs only 31% as the team, a lower rate than any team had in the regular season (the Texans were last at 34%).

Both Akers and Michel have negative rushing DYAR this postseason. So do Jake Funk and Cooper Kupp (a combined 3 yards on three carries). Even Stafford, despite his two scores, has just 8 DYAR after being stuffed on sneaks by both the Cardinals and 49ers. By our numbers, L.A.’s best runner this postseason has been Van Jefferson, who has all of one carry for 15 yards.

Put it all together and the Rams have a rush offense DVOA of -44.4% this postseason, the worst playoff run on record for any Super Bowl team since 1983. (If you missed the news, we recently added team playoff DVOAs to all of our seasonal pages—you can see the Rams and the rest of the 2021 playoff field here.) They are threatening to break the mark of another Rams team, though that one played in Missouri, not California. But good news, Rams fans: that team went on to win a championship.

Yes, the 1999 Rams won three playoff games and a Lombardi Trophy while running for a total of 111 yards. They had a postseason rush offense DVOA of just -28.3%. At least they got a touchdown in there on Marshall Faulk’s 1-yard plunge against Minnesota in the divisional round. That puts them ahead of the Giants one year later, who had zero rushing touchdowns in three playoff games, including a 41-0 shoutout of Minnesota when Kerry Collins threw for five scores. But it was Kurt Warner, Isaac Bruce, and Torry Holt who won a Super Bowl for St. Louis, not Faulk the runner. (Faulk the receiver was a big asset, catching 13 passes for 175 yards and a score.)

Three other teams here won Super Bowls despite their lousy rushing attack, and all are historically memorable. The 1985 Bears had an all-time great defensive postseason performance, surrendering a total of 10 points in three games with a defensive DVOA of -75.0%. The 2015 Broncos won the Lombardi Trophy in Peyton Manning’s final year. And the 2016 Patriots needed the biggest comeback in Super Bowl history to escape with an overtime win.

Three of the 10 teams in this table played in Denver, as Manning and John Elway both made a habit of getting to the Super Bowl despite spending a lot of time handing off and watching their runners get tackled for no gain. (One of Manning’s Colts teams also makes an appearance.) The ironic thing about this is that the Broncos also had the best rushing attack of any Super Bowl team, as Terrell Davis’ 1998 club ran 112 times for 549 yards (a 4.9-yard average) with seven touchdowns, eventually beating Atlanta 34-19 in the Super Bowl.

To be fair to the Rams, we’re dealing with inherently small sample sizes, and a big game against Cincinnati in two weeks could take them off this table entirely. And the Bengals, for their part, won the AFC tournament despite some subpar run defense—4.7%, second worst of all playoff teams. Cincinnati has only given up one rushing touchdown in the playoffs, but the Raiders, Titans, and Chiefs each averaged at least 5.0 yards per carry against the Bengals, combining for 382 yards in 65 carries over the three games.

Football is often a game of matchups. And the Super Bowl could be decided by this battle between the easily resistible force and the conveniently movable object.