How Will Colts Replace Wentz?

NFL Offseason – In these editions of Four Downs, we’ll review the biggest hole on each team in the division and then give a short look at each team’s major free agents for 2022.

Houston Texans

Biggest Need: Defensive Line

The Houston Texans have … a lot of holes on both sides of the ball. While the general answer to this question could just literally be “talent,” I think their most pressing need has to be on the defensive line. Last season, the Texans defensive line was 25th in Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards metric, while only posting an adjusted sack rate of 6.0%. Lovie Smith is the new head coach in Houston, and with his Tampa-2 defense still in place for the Texans, the ability to win with only four pass-rushers is critical. (The Texans were 30th in blitz rate according to Pro Football Reference.) Jonathan Greenard is a solid piece in place already, but the Texans desperately need a franchise pass-rusher to really give the defense some juice.

The free agency pool should have a lot of pass-rushers the Texans could pry away from other teams. Von Miller is a stand-up pass-rusher who can give the Texans some pass -ush help in the short term. For players that are more hand-in-the-dirt, 4-3 edge rushers, Emmanuel Ogbah from the Dolphins is primed for a big contract after standing out on the Miami defense. However, the NFL draft is also loaded at talent at the edge rusher position, starting with Aidan Hutchinson from Michigan and Kayvon Thibodeaux from Oregon. Houston needs talent everywhere, but the defensive line is the most important.

Major Free Agents: WR Danny Amendola, C Justin Britt, DT Maliek Collins, LB Kamu Grugier-Hill, RB David Johnson, CB Desmond King, LB Christian Kirksey, DE Jacob Martin, SS Justin Reid, QB Tyrod Taylor

You see those half-dozen defensive names listed in that subhead? That’s six of the nine men who played more than 600 defensive snaps for the Texans in 2021. Desmond King, Christian Kirksey, Justin Reid, and Kamu Grugier-Hill were all in the top five for Houston in that category. A seventh, Terrance Mitchell, was cut on Wednesday. The closest thing they have to building blocks left under contract are cornerback Tavierre Thomas (638 defensive snaps) and safety Eric Murray (758). Expect an entirely new Texans defense this fall, is what we’re saying. At least their offense mostly looks stable—Justin Britt was a starter at center, but Danny Amendola, David Johnson, and Tyrod Taylor have little to offer these days beyond name recognition.

Indianapolis Colts

Biggest Need: Quarterback

Was there any other way to go with this? The Colts were set to make the playoffs again last year, but were subject to a full helping of Carson Wentz. Wentz on the season was 16th in passing DYAR and DVOA, but dropped to 20th in composite EPA. Wentz didn’t do enough to help a Colts team that largely was the same team that had made the playoffs a year before. Wentz’s turnover-riddled play and questionable decision-making forced the Colts to trade him to Washington.

Now that Wentz is gone, how can they replace him? One quarterback that could be on the move is Kirk Cousins, who would be a substantial upgrade over Wentz. Derek Carr could be another option if the Raiders wanted to start clean. In free agency, Teddy Bridgewater and Tyrod Taylor could be solid options. Either way it goes, the Colts need to upgrade from Wentz if they plan on making the playoffs again with this defensive core.

Major Free Agents: TE Mo Alie-Cox, LT Eric Fisher, LB Zaire Franklin, WR T.Y. Hilton, RG Mark Glowinski, DE Al-Quadin Muhammad, WR Zach Pascal

The trio of Mo Alie-Cox, T.Y. Hilton, and Zach Pascal combined for over a thousand receiving yards in 2021. That may not sound like much, but remember that the Colts were in the bottom 10 with 3,361 receiving yards as a team, and Alie-Cox, Hilton, and Pascal combined for 29% of that total. It’s never good to lose that much production—Michael Pittman can’t do everything by himself. Elsewhere, the Colts are at risk of losing a pair of starters on the offensive line (Eric Fisher and Mark Glowinski) and two more on the defensive front (Zaire Franklin and Al-Quadin Muhammad).

Jacksonville Jaguars

Biggest Need: Wide Receiver

As much as the offensive line for the Jaguars needs to be revamped with the impending free agencies of Andrew Norwell and A.J. Cann, their wide receiver position badly needs an influx of talent. Rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence arguably had the worst supporting cast of receivers in the league this year, exacerbated by the season ending injury to DJ Chark (who is also a free agent). The Jaguars were trotting out Laquon Treadwell and Jamal Agnew as their starting receivers, which led to Jacksonville being sixth in the NFL in drops and creating multiple memes where receivers are running into each other. Treadwell was the only receiver to rank in Football Outsiders DYAR rankings, and he was 54th.

The problem for the Jaguars is that most of the good receivers are getting franchise tagged. Chris Godwin and Davante Adams are off the market, so where does that leave the free agent search? A reunion with Allen Robinson is a possibility, and JuJu Smith-Schuster is also a free agent. The Jaguars have already used the franchise tag on left tackle Cam Robinson, so Chark is likely on his way out of Duval. The good news is this wide receiver draft class is stocked with premium talent, so Jacksonville can address the position there if they wanted to. The most important thing the Jaguars need to do is surround their franchise quarterback with talent to throw the ball to in order for his development to truly begin.

Major Free Agents: RG A.J. Cann, WR DJ Chark, LT Cam Robinson (franchise tag), LG Andrew Norwell, LB Damien Wilson

If there is any upside to Jacksonville’s league-worst 2021 campaign, it’s that they have very few starters entering free agency, especially after they designated Cam Robinson as their franchise player. Compare their situation to that of the Texans, who won only one more game but not must replace massive chunks of their defense before they even think about upgrades. Andrew Norwell would likely be Jacksonville’s biggest loss—though he has not lived up to the All-Pro heights he reached in Carolina, he has started 57 games in four seasons in Jacksonville, including every game in both 2019 and 2021. A.J. Cann, the other guard, started 13 games for the Jaguars every year from 2015 to 2020, but missed 13 games last year with an MCL injury. DJ Chark went over a thousand yards in 2019, but has only 860 yards in 16 games since; he missed 13 games last year with a broken ankle. In his first season in teal-and-black, Damien Wilson started every game, finishing second on the team in tackles and adding 3.0 sacks.

Tennessee Titans

Biggest Need: Offensive Line

This one was pretty difficult. The Titans obviously need more help in the offensive department after finishing 20th in offensive DVOA last season. I went back and forth between a third wide receiver and offensive line, but with the way the Titans are built to win, the offensive line is important. Although it can be argued that their team wasn’t healthy for most of the season, the one group that remained relatively healthy was the offensive line, but they still finished 24th in ESPN’s Pass Block Win Rate and Run Block Win Rate as a team. Most of the problems came from the right side of the line. Football Outsiders measured their adjusted line yards when running off the right end as 26th in the NFL at 3.55 yards per attempt.

This offseason could see some changes to the offensive line, however. Center Ben Jones is an upcoming free agent, and Taylor Lewan’s future is up in the air (although he did say he would consider retirement if the Titans cut him, which could be a possibility). In addition, Rodger Saffold could be a cap casualty after the Titans broke the bank to re-sign Harold Landry.

There are plenty of options the Titans can choose in free agency if they want to replace linemen. Obviously Terron Armstead is the prize of the group, but after him are solid starters such as Trent Brown or Duane Brown at tackle. At guard, Brandon Scherff, Laken Tomlinson, and Andrew Norwell are the top players, while Ryan Jensen is the top name at the center position. With the holes that the Titans have at offensive line and wide receiver, they could opt to sign one of the top linemen in free agency, and address wideout in the draft. The best way for this team to maximize their winning window would be to get a quality lineman in free agency, a veteran who can help them win right now.

Major Free Agents: C Ben Jones, RT David Quessenberry, TE Geoff Swaim

Yup, that’s it. Tennessee re-signed Harold Landry to a big-money contract on Wednesday, and that took care of their most important priority going into free agency. Up next: center Ben Jones, who has missed exactly one start in a Titans uniform since joining Tennessee in 2016. David Quessenberry, best known for surviving a case of Non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma that sidelined him for three years, entered last season with only six starts in the NFL; he started every game in 2021. Geoff Swaim started 16 games, and it’s worth pointing out his top backups, Anthony Firkser and MyCole Pruitt, are also free agents. Beyond that, you’re looking at backup wideouts such as Marcus Johnson and Chester Rogers. And with Landry signed and sealed, there are barely any defensive players headed out the door. Tennessee’s top nine defenders in snaps played in 2021 will return in 2022. Their top defensive free agent is Rashaan Evans, a fourth-year linebacker who started 11 games during the regular season but was a healthy scratch in the playoffs.