2022 Defensive Free Agents Led by Von Miller,…

NFL Offseason – We have already looked at the top offensive free agents available this offseason. Now it’s time now to flip to the other side of the ball and talk about the top defenders available.

This year’s crop of defensive free agents is rather oddly distributed. If you’re looking for a star at a high-impact position, you’re in luck—edge rushers and cornerbacks abound. But if you’re looking to fill positions which have traditionally been less valued, at least by analytical approaches, you’re in for a spot of bother, as defensive tackles and inside linebackers are rather thin on the ground. This may actually mean that the big-ticket positions end up competing against each other and driving their price down, while the scarcity of the interior players ends up earning top names a pretty penny.

Edge Rushers

When you factor in players who were tagged before free agency officially started, this year’s edge rusher’s class is the deepest of the bunch. Get out those wallets, because some big names will be on the move.

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Harold Landry had 62 pressures last season, per SIS charting. That led all potential free agents this year, so there was a lot of talk about whether or not the Titans would tag Landry to keep him from hitting the market. The answer is no, they won’t. Instead, they just went ahead and re-signed Landry to a five-year extension; a deal which makes puts him in the top 10 highest-paid edge rushers, at least until the rest of the market resolves. Have no fear, however; there are plenty of other talented options available.

Star Acquisitions

Per SIS charting, there were 55 players with at least 40 pressures in 2021. Eleven of them are free agents this year, even after Landry has been taken off the table. Four of the 27 players with at least 50 pressures are still free agents as well. There are players available who will give defenses a new stud to pin their entire pass rush around.

That’s what the Rams did with Von Miller, after all, and you won’t find them complaining about it. Miller had 25 pressures in just eight games with Los Angeles (to go along with his 22 in seven for Denver), then played a huge role in the Rams’ playoff run to the Super Bowl. Players of Miller’s caliber do not end up available very often, but the Rams really don’t have the room to franchise tag him. They’ll try to extend him, for sure, and Miller is at least interested in returning to Los Angeles, but he’s going to get offers from any team that has two pennies to rub together, and from quite a few who don’t. Miller does have two drawbacks. Firstly, he’s 33 years old, so you don’t want to pay for too long of a deal for when age slows him down. Secondly, he is strictly a linebacker; he does not play on the line with his hand in the dirt. Any defensive coordinator worth his salt can figure out ways to use Miller, but there are still vestiges of the 3-4 LB/4-3 DE split, even now that we generally group them all together as edge rushers.

For some, then, Chandler Jones might be a more appealing option—or at least a strong No. 2 behind Miller, after bouncing back from his 2020 biceps injury with a 51-pressure season in the desert. Jones isn’t the same player he was a few years ago, as age comes for us all, but he’s still one of the top pass-rushers in the game, he can hold up well against the run, and he can be slid all around the line as needed, playing with his hand in the dirt or standing up. Versatility is a virtue in and of itself, and while I’d rather have Miller than Jones, Jones might be easier to work in for teams that primarily use even fronts and/or already have a top pass-rusher on hand.

And we haven’t even gotten to Emmanuel Ogbah (60 pressures) or Jadeveon Clowney (52 pressures) yet, not to mention Randy Gregory (only 43 pressures, but in just 12 games). Each of these players would be a very solid upper-tier pass-rusher, if not quite a defense-changer like Miller would be. They’re absolutely players who could come in as a major option for a significant chunk of defenses and allow everyone else to slide down a rung in the pecking order, improving the entire pass rush by setting up easier matchups up and down the line.

Major Complementary Pieces

The Chiefs picked up Melvin Ingram midseason, and that paid off well for them—both in terms of Ingram looking rejuvenated in Kansas City compared to Pittsburgh, and for letting them end the Chris Jones, Edge Rusher experiment. In a slimmer class, Ingram might be a more highlighted player; as is, his age, health, and the fact he didn’t work out in Pittsburgh bumps him down a rung.

So Ingram instead joins the “good, but with a question mark” tier. That’s a big group of players this year. In no particular order, there’s Haason Reddick (not as good last year as he was in 2020, and needs to be allowed to blitz), Lorenzo Carter (has been a better coverage/run-stopper than pass-rusher), Charles Harris (beware paying for the breakout season!), and Dante Fowler (just 7.5 sacks for Atlanta in the last two years). These are all quality players, but they need to be put into situations which best maximize their talents; they’re less plug-and-play than other big names. Again, these are good names to slot in; they’re just going to be more of the $5 million- to $10 million-a-year guys instead of the $15-plus-million Von Miller tier. I would not be at all surprised if we look back in a year and point out one of these guys as a “how did they get X for so cheap!” great free-agent move.

Can’t Have Enough Pass Rush

Justin Houston, Jerry Hughes, Derrick Barnett, Jason Pierre-Paul, Uchenna Nwosu, and Arden Key are also all unrestricted free agents. At this point, these are all fully rotational guys, but some of them are rotational guys with name value and others are Arden Key. All of them can produce; just try getting them on the cheap.

Potential Destinations

The Denver Broncos could use someone to replace the departed Von Miller. That could include, well, the departed Von Miller, turning his Los Angeles trip into a rent-a-star situation. But that could also include someone such as Chandler Jones—you would think Denver would be willing to spend money to help Bradley Chubb revert to a second pass-rusher, especially now that they’ve vaulted into the realm of contenders with the Russell Wilson trade.

The Broncos are one of a few teams making defensive scheme changes who might require new players to help smooth things over. The Indianapolis Colts are going to Gus Bradley as defensive coordinator. Bradley doesn’t like to blitz, which means you need top pass-rushers to make his system work, and the Colts are pretty much fresh out of those kinds of guys. On the flip side, the New York Giants went with Wink Martindale, who wants to blitz and blitz often—calling Haason Reddick to the white courtesy phone, please.

And, of course, there’s the ongoing NFC West arms race, as teams throw away future draft picks and financial flexibility to try to keep up. The 49ers have been rumored to be kicking the tires of depth-type edge rushers to help support their questionable secondary, and the Seahawks have been linked to a wide variety of pass-rushers to help boost their 29th-place adjusted sack rate. In fact, just assume that every defensive position we talk about here has at least two NFC West teams interested at all times.

Interior Defensive Linemen

There aren’t really any superstars to be found in the trenches this year, though that doesn’t mean there aren’t some high-floor run-stuffers available.

Run-Stuffers

The biggest name available is Calais Campbell, still succeeding as a run-stuffer despite turning 36 in September. Campbell is no longer the player who had double-digit sacks in 2017 and 2018; he now gets 20 or 30 pressures a season as he’s mainly a gap-stuffer and solid tackler, but he still flashes some of the old burst on occasion. He’s strictly a year-to-year guy at this point, but he’s more than just a rotational piece; he was on the field for over 50% of Baltimore’s snaps last season. Age is going to take him eventually, but we’re not at “eventually” yet.

There are other 3- or 5-techniques who are in Campbell’s skill range but may end up costing less than Campbell’s name value. That includes Akiem Hicks, Harrison Phillips, and Folorunso Fatukasi. Campbell had 34 rush stops last season (tackles/assists that stopped a play short of success). Phillips had 35 and Fatukasi had 40, while Hicks had similar numbers prior to last year’s nagging groin injury. In fact, if you’re looking for just a run-stopper specifically, I’d go with Fatukasi, who led all linemen with a 93% run stop rate in 2021, with similar numbers every year he’s been in the league. He’s a zero as a pass-rusher, mind you, but there are few better run-stoppers available, free agency or not.

In second place in run stop rate last year was D.J. Jones at 89%. Jones is also solid as part of a pass rush, even if that’s not his primary function; he ends up with 49 combined stops, third among all defensive tackles last year. Jones is primarily a nose tackle, so he’s not fully competing with a Campbell or a Fatukasi; they’re different sorts of players, and not every team really needs a 0-technique anymore. But for teams that are looking, I’d put Jones at the top of this year’s nose group, right up there with Sebastian Joseph-Day and ahead of guys such as Derrick Nnadi.

Rotational Pieces

There are some big-name players available who are on the back end of their careers, most notably Ndamukong Suh, Sheldon Richardson, and Linval Joseph. Of the three, I’d argue that Joseph has the most left in the tank, with 34 successes last season to Richardson’s 28 and Suh’s 20, but I’d also argue that none of the three are at the level they were in their prime. All three are aging gracefully, but that means they’re still aging.

If you’re not in win-now mode, you may be better off with a B.J. Hill, Maliek Collins, or Bilal Nichols. All offer broadly similar levels of production to those bigger names, but they’re also all 26 years old or younger, and could still improve over the next few seasons.

Possible Destinations

The Los Angeles Chargers ranked 28th in adjusted line yards and 30th in rush defense DVOA, so they could stand to add a run defender or three just to staunch the bleeding. If you’re looking for a destination for Akiem Hicks, it makes a lot of sense—Brandon Staley was on the Bears’ coaching staff while Hicks was there, and there were trade rumors last season linking Hicks to Los Angeles which never panned out.

The Tampa Bay Bucs will need to make some sort of move, considering Suh and JPP are free agents and everyone’s getting old, anyway. Also keep an eye on the Lions and Chiefs, two franchises which are usually not grouped together but are both sitting in the Venn diagram of “significant cap space” and “bottom-five ALY.”

Linebackers

There’s only one major domino to fall at the linebacker position, but it’s a pretty big one.

Cashing In

De’Vondre Campbell was not considered much before 2021. Our old friend Bill Barnwell panned the Cardinals for signing him to a significant deal in 2020, saying that he was stretched against the run and pass, was a marginal player, and had not proven himself as even an average NFL starting linebacker. His signing with the Packers last offseason basically went unnoticed. And then Campbell exploded, making the All-Pro team with a stellar season in Green Bay. It was completely out of character after his first five years in the league (although you can see a slight trend upwards, if you squint). The big question, then: breakout year or fluke? And, perhaps more importantly, are you comfortable paying him Eric Kendricks-type money to find out? If 2021 is prelude, then throw all the money in the world after him. If not, someone’s going to blow a lot of money on a player who has been an interchangeable middle linebacker for years.

All the other top options at the position have questions too, although none of them lead to quite the same range of potential outcomes as Campbell. Alexander Johnson has been under Vic Fangio’s reign for four years, and Fangio makes magic happen with linebackers. Leighton Vander Esch is very good when he has clear room, and not so much when he has to try to get off of blockers. Dont’a Hightower, like nearly all Patriots front seven players, has more value to Bill Belichick than to anyone else. Foyesade Oluokun led the league in tackles, but was in the bottom 15 in stop rate. Frankly, considering the level of competition, I’d take the gamble on Campbell.

Shop Smart

Everyone listed above is probably going to be in the $7-plus-million range, per projections at Over The Cap and Spotrac and various other places on the interwebs. Rather than pay those prices, teams could look for slightly cheaper options who will still get the job done.

The next tier down is led by Josey Jewell, a jack-of-all-trades, master-of-none sort of player who played just 82 defensive snaps last season due to injury. A one-year prove-it deal now that his torn pec has healed could be a steal.

After Jewell, you have solid but unspectacular all-arounders such as Anthony Barr or Kyzir White, coverage specialists like Jayon Brown or Anthony Walker, and run-stuffers such as Ja’Whaun Bentley. Which one you want really depends on the circumstances each defense finds themselves in.

Possible Destinations

With both Denver starting linebackers hitting free agency, the Broncos need to do something at the position. And bringing in Nathaniel Hackett was designed to lure ex-Packers to town, right? De’Vondre Campbell was definitely who we were all thinking about? We’re all on board there? Great.

In less snarky news, a lot of the teams at the bottom of the standings could use a steadying force in the middle of their defense and have the money to spend to find one. Robert Saleh would love to find his Fred Warner for his Jets defense. The Jaguars and Lions each have multiple inside linebackers hitting free agency and need replacements anyway. Lots of potential action down close to the dregs of the league.

Cornerbacks

Teams that need coverage help are in luck, with a number of top-flight players available. Even more so if your goal is to ape Bill Belichick and steal all of his players.

A Couple of Ex-Pats

You could argue the top two cornerbacks available started 2021 on the roster of the New England Patriots, although only one finished there.

It remains surprising to me that J.C. Jackson is apparently going to hit the open market, and in a way which feels like there’s bad blood between him and the Patriots if you read between the lines—Jackson is upset that he’s not getting paid like the Pro Bowl/All-Pro corner he was last season, when he stepped up to be the Patriots’ top cornerback after Stephon Gilmore was gone.

And, speaking of which, Stephon Gilmore is available too! Gilmore and Jackson are, in some order, the top man-cover cornerbacks available, and I expect both to draw pretty heavy bidding wars. Jackson was third in SIS’ points saved metrics, led the league in pass breakups, was second in interceptions, and was in the top 20 in yards per target among qualified corners; it was the best season of his career, but not a massive outlier from years before. Gilmore doesn’t have the full-season numbers from last year due to some nagging injuries and some contract issues with the Patriots, but the 2019 defensive player of the year is still a top-flight player when he’s healthy, which he appears to be now. Each should wind up with one of the 10 largest cornerback contracts when the dust clears—I don’t think either will catch Jalen Ramsey’s five-year, $100-million deal, but they could both clear the Byron Jones/Xavien Howard tier of $15 million or $16 million a season.

Carlton Davis should be roughly in that salary range too, and should be the preferred corner for teams that want to run a zone scheme rather than man-to-man. Davis is a physical corner, for sure, but one of his better attributes is his ability to close in space and break on the ball, making him a great pick for a Cover-3 or Cover-4 team. He never played for Patriots, so he doesn’t really fit the theme of this subhead, but his talent clearly puts him in Jackson and Gilmore’s class, rather than in the throng of talented corners we’re about to talk about.

The Throng of Talented Corners We’re About to Talk About

This year’s cornerback class is deep, so even teams that miss out on one of the top guys can still get significant help.

If you’re looking for a man-to-man player but whiff on Jackson and Gilmore, Charvarious Ward may be your best bet. If Ward’s your best cornerback, you’re in trouble, but he’s a very solid second option. His 6.0 yards per target allowed last year was a career high, and his 67.4% deserved catch percentage was a career best as well, per SIS charting—and he is still only 25 years old. The market on man-to-man outside corners kind of dries up fast after Ward—no offense to a Sidney Jones or the theoretical concept of a healthy Jason Verrett, but Ward seems to be a class above.

But if you’re looking for a corner more comfortable in zone coverage? It’s your lucky day. D.J. Reed, Casey Hayward, Rasul Douglas, Kyle Fuller, Darious Williams, Xavier Rhodes, Levi Wallace—I could go on. These are good starting-caliber players, all of whom are going to be competing against each other and a fairly deep draft class, and that’ll drive prices down. This is honestly one of the better years in recent memory to be needing cornerback help in a big way.

For teams looking for a slot corner, K’Waun Williams probably ekes out a win over Bryce Callahan as the best player available at this point, though Callahan has the longer track record. Beyond them, there are the Chris Harrises and Desmond Kings of the world, both of whom are more than reasonable options.

Patrick Peterson, Joe Haden, Steven Nelson, Donte Jackson, and Robert Alford are all available as well, though all are better complementary options than exciting pickups at this point in their careers.

Possible Destinations

I still imagine Jackson ends up in New England when all is said and done; Jackson does such good work in the Belichick system and the Patriots can’t afford to let him go. I still can’t believe a deal hasn’t been worked out at this point.

Richard Sherman has said that Gilmore wants to go West, which doesn’t narrow things down as much as you might hope. The Chargers, Cardinals, 49ers, and Seahawks all are heavily shopping for cornerback help, and all will be very much in on a potential Gilmore deal. Or a Carlton Davis deal. Or a Casey Hayward deal. In fact, if you have ever played cornerback before at any level, just submit your resume out west and you’ll probably get at least a callback.

But you don’t need to see the Pacific Ocean to be in desperate need of a corner. The New York Jets needed three corners before 2021, gambled on their young players to step up, and now still need three corners. The Patriots will need someone new if Jackson does indeed leave, and could probably use more depth even if he sticks around. The Colts, the Eagles, the Broncos … there’s no shortage of teams with money who need significant secondary help.

Safeties

Every year, it seems like there’s a bumper crop of top safeties available, and every year, it seems like front offices around the league pass on them until the very last minute. 2022 looks like no exception.

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The Bengals went ahead and tagged Jessie Bates, which makes a lot of sense. It makes more sense to work out a long-term deal for him, but applying the tag gives them more time to hash that out. If Bates had slipped through for some reason, he would have been either No. 1 or No. 1A in this year’s class, and the Bengals weren’t going to let that happen.

Top Trio

The Saints somehow found room to tag Marcus Williams a year ago; that won’t happen again. Losing him is going to be a big blow to the New Orleans secondary, but they just don’t have the cap room to bring him back like that—it would have to be a long deal with a ton of money pushed into the future. The Saints can’t afford to lose him; he’s one of the top young safeties in the league and New Orleans’ best cover player. They can’t afford to keep him, as the bill has to come due for all this money pushed into the future at some point, and are you really going to mortgage your future on a safety? The Saints’ loss would be a huge gain for somebody else.

Tyrann Mathieu is available as well, and it looks like he, too, will be wearing a new uniform next season. Mathieu remains one of the most versatile safeties in the league—he played in the box, he played deep, he lined up at slot corner, and even lined up wide on occasion. His overall quality of play hasn’t been quite at his usual level in recent seasons, but even if he doesn’t bounce back to his 2010s form, having a good player who can play any position is a tremendous asset.

I’d group Quandre Diggs in with Williams and Mathieu, though that’s not a universal opinion. Diggs was never a worldbeater in Detroit, but getting to play more of a deep safety role in Seattle’s defense the last two seasons has made him a regular Pro Bowler. He is recovering from an ankle injury, which will likely drop his price tag compared to Williams and Mathieu, but he should be ready to go by June at the latest.

Late Signings

Safeties hang around on the free agent market for months and months, so outside the very top tier of players, you can find values even as minicamps prepare to open.

While the line between free safeties and strong safeties have smudged in recent years, some players still would prefer to be in the box and others would prefer to play centerfield. This year, the class is a little deeper at the free safety position. Marcus Maye, who stepped up in a major way when Jamal Adams left the Jets, is your top name there, but Justin Reid, Devin McCourty, Jason McCourty, DeShon Elliott, Tracy Walker, Xavier Woods, and Kareem Jackson are all available as well.

If you’re looking for someone in the box, I think I’d most prefer Jordan Whitehead, who has done some very solid work as a heat-seeking missile-type for the Buccaneers and is only just turning 25. Jayron Kearse, Jaquiski Tartt, and Jabril Peppers round out the group. If you are strongly opposed to players whose name begins with J, Terrell Edmunds is also available.

Possible Destinations

The Cowboys’ top three safeties—Jayron Kearse, Damontae Kazee, and Malik Hooker—are all pending free agents. It sounds like Kearse wants to come back, but the Cowboys would still need a centerfielder type (like Marcus Maye, perhaps?) to complete Dan Quinn’s defense. In a similar vein, new Ravens coordinator Mike Macdonald could really use someone to replicate Daxton Hill’s versatility from his time at Michigan. That could be Daxton Hill himself in the draft, but the idea of dropping, say, Tyrann Mathieu into that Baltimore defense is intriguing.

The Jets, Lions, and Jaguars could also benefit from a cheap safety as part of the significant defensive overhauls all three franchises need to undergo this offseason. As the safety market tends not to be the most aggressive one in the league, they might have a better-than-average shot at grabbing a better-than-average player at the position.