Zombie Steelers Just Won’t Quit

NFL Week 15 – The Indianapolis Colts gave the New England Patriots a taste of their own medicine on Saturday night, and the whole AFC playoff outlook instantly changed. The Buffalo Bills have renewed hope, the Tennessee Titans are in sudden peril, and the Pittsburgh Steelers refuse to go down until they’re staked through the heart. Walkthrough is about to bring you all of the action.

But first…

Campbell Claus is Coming to Town

Thank you, Dan Campbell, for reminding us this holiday season of the true meaning of football.

Football is supposed to be about toughness, perseverance, never giving up on yourself or your teammates, and playing with pride. It’s easy for those of us at Football Outsiders to scoff when coaches preach such old-fashioned values, because we know that NFL games are won and lost by great quarterbacks and the players and game plans tasked with stopping them, and that championship teams are built by carefully managing and leveraging cap space and draft capital. Slobberknocker football? Bah. Humbug.

But Campbell’s Detroit Lions blew out an Arizona Cardinals team trying to clinch a playoff berth by a 30-12 final score on Sunday. They did it without T.J. Hockensen or D’Andre Swift, two of their only playmakers worthy of that designation. They did it by running between the tackles and by cramming Kliff Kingsbury’s precision-engineered passing game right back in Kyler Murray’s face. It sure looked at times like they did it by wanting it more. It was weird, unexpected and wonderful.

The Lions also threw the Minnesota Vikings’ wild-card bid into doubt two weeks ago. They stuffed a banana in the Steelers tailpipe with a 16-16 Week 10 tie. They take opponents much more talented than they are to the wall nearly every week. And when the pandemic knocked them down in Week 14, they jumped right back up swinging.

The Lions may have cost themselves the first overall pick in the 2022 draft with Sunday’s victory. But whatever the Lions have been using to produce upsets and near-upsets late in this season is worth much more in the long run than the spots of draft order they are giving up to the flailing, stagnating Jaguars or anyone else. That’s not a statement endorsed by analytics, but sometimes you gotta have a little old-fashioned faith.

It’s easy to forget what makes football feel like less like a pastime than an essential part of our lives. It’s not really Tom Brady or Patrick Mahomes; the NBA has more dynamic, multifaceted superstars we can watch two or three times per week. It’s Pop Warner kids covered in mud; high school athletes drenched in sweat; fans of all ages living vicariously and finding inspiration through young athletes as they fight through pain, cope with setbacks, and face down challenges that appear bigger and stronger than they’re equipped to handle without flinching. It’s about satisfying that inner caveman. Or in Campbell’s case, that outer caveman.

So thank you, Dan Campbell, for the thrills, the surprises, and the reminder that it’s OK to not be very good as long as you keep striving with all your might to be better.

Game Spotlight: Pittsburgh Steelers 19, Tennessee Titans 13

What Happened: The Titans dominated the first half, but they led just 13-3 at halftime because they settled for two field goals and Anthony Firkser fumbled away a third-down completion to set up a Steelers field goal.

The Steelers cut the Titans lead to 13-10 on a drive sparked by their signature offensive play—defensive pass interference on a badly thrown ball—and capped by a Ben Roethlisberger goal-line sneak. Three straight Titans turnovers then turned into 31 total yards of Steelers offense to set up three field goals.

The Titans downshifted into Saturday Night Colts gear and tried to run the ball straight through the Steelers’ hearts on the final drive, but Nick Westbrook-Ikhine was stopped just short of the sticks after a catch on fourth-and-7.

Also, the television director kept cutting to shots of Steelers fans waving Terrible Towels every freakin’ time the Titans faced third-and-long. Crowd noise was certainly a factor. But we get it, CBS: Steelers fans love the Steelers, even when they are manufacturing grimy wins on frigid afternoons. Perhaps especially when they are manufacturing grimy wins on frigid afternoons.

What it Means: The Steelers did not play well in this game. At all. Their run defense made D’Onta Freeman look like Derrick Henry. They produced 168 yards of offense. They went 2-of-11 on third downs and looked ugly doing it, with lots of pointless completions well in front of the sticks. Two of the Titans fumbles came after completed passes: not precisely unforced errors, but not a sign of a dominant defense. The Steelers were just lucky to be facing a team forced to feed the ball to Foreman, Westbrook-Ihene, and someone named Racey McMath (the other guy who fumbled after a catch) instead of Henry, A.J. Brown, and Julio Jones.

The Titans still have a sweep of the Colts in their back pocket, and they’re likely to need it to secure the AFC South after losing three of their last four games. They are not a very good football team right now.

In other words, the Titans are still on pace to lose at home in the first round of the playoffs to some opponent such as the Chargers, while the Steelers are still on pace to remain in the wild-card picture until the last moment based mostly on their knack for getting opponents to play down to their level.

The more things change in the AFC, the more they stay the same.

What’s Next: The Titans host the 49ers and Dolphins before wrapping up the season in Houston. They need at least one win in the next two weeks to keep the Colts safely at arm’s length.

The Steelers visit the Chiefs next week. Will a loss finally put them to rest? Probably not. Nothing does.

Game Spotlight: Buffalo Bills 31, Carolina Panthers 14

What Happened: Panthers kicker Zane Gonzalez suffered an injury during warmups. Cam Newton spent the afternoon executing what looked like a six-play game plan, and “Cam dives off tackle” was at least two of the plays. The Bills should have cruised to victory, but they needed some Panthers fourth-down blunders and a late-game garbage-time touchdown to make this closer-than-it-should-have-been game show as a blowout on the scoreboard.

What it Means: The Bills are not being graded on their ability to beat the pathetic Camthers but on their readiness to face the Patriots again. On that curve, they get a C- at best.

Early Bills drives stalled. They needed to get the ball near midfield to score their first two touchdowns. Josh Allen threw a costly interception before halftime. Cam’s QB Power plunges and short RPO tosses were more effective than they should have been. The Bills would have been in real trouble if the Panthers could have kicked field goals or run a game plan longer than a kiddie menu. If the Bills start slowly, execute poorly, and fail to adjust to a run-heavy game plan of routine plays against the Patriots next week, well, we have already seen the results.

The Bills may want you to believe that they recorded a statement win on Sunday. It was really more of a mumble.

What’s Next: Bills-Patriots II: Return of the Mac.

The Panthers face the Buccaneers twice in the next three weeks. And frankly, they deserve it.

Game Spotlight: New Orleans Saints 9, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Happened: The Buccaneers lost an excruciating, infuriating, and potentially devastating game to their most dangerous rival.

The Saints defense once again made Tom Brady look his age, pressuring him into sacks, interceptions, and blooper-reel fumbles. The Buccaneers loss left the Packers all alone as the frontrunners in the race to the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs. But the most troubling news for the Buccaneers came on the injury front: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Leonard Fournette all left the game. The severity of the injuries is unknown.

Also, the Saints stayed in the playoff picture thanks to a TebowMania-worthy performance by Taysom Hill: 13-of-27 passing, 154 yards, 33 rushing yards, three field goals, nine series ending in punts.

What it Means: It’s hard to figure out why the Saints can make Tom Brady look so bad when lesser quarterbacks can often hold their own, especially when the Saints offense gives the ball back so often. Pass pressure is part of the story. So is the Buccaneers’ habit of seeking big plays when they only need 1 or 2 yards—Brady threw low-percentage deep balls on third-and-2 and fourth-and-1 while trailing by six points—while settling for short runs on too many first downs. Whatever the cause, the Bucs looked pathetic against an opponent whose offense consists of zone-read stuff and passing plays where Hill just heaved the ball to a random spot on the field and hoped a receiver would get there.

The Buccaneers have an easy late-season stretch, so their main concerns moving forward are the injuries. Brady cannot play at a championship-caliber level anymore with only Rob Gronkowski to throw to. If the Bucs limp into the playoffs with a depleted playmaker corps, they won’t stand a chance against opponents such as the Cowboys or Packers. Fortunately, they have three weeks to get guys healthy. But a month would have been preferable.

Two straight wins and a soft late schedule put the Saints back in position for the final wild-card berth. If the Rams, 49ers, and Saints end up in the playoffs in that seeding order, finishing second in the conference and getting to wallop Taysom is going to be a real advantage. Though maybe not for the Bucs.

What’s Next: The Buccaneers munch on a Panthers-Jets-Panthers cookie sandwich. The Saints wrap with the Dolphins, Panthers and Falcons. Eat your hearts out, NFC East wild-card hopefuls.

Game Spotlight: Green Bay Packers 31, Baltimore Ravens 30

What Happened: The Packers won another game despite a special teams mini-meltdown. The Ravens lost another game by attempting a two-point conversion instead of kicking an extra point to force overtime. That’s all you really need to know: the rest, while fun to watch, was mostly filler.

What it Means: Walkthrough has been assured by our superiors that we are not expected to defend the analytics underpinning John Harbaugh’s decisions like we’re defending Hamburger Hill. It’s mathematically debatable whether or not he made the right call on Sunday, and we’re not all that invested in that debate; it’s not like the Ravens are being criticized for going for it on fourth-and-inches at midfield or making some other analytically unassailable decision. However the calculations shake out, Harbaugh piled the Ravens’ playoff chips onto two plays in three weeks and watched the wheel spin. Those decisions, not the Ravens’ staggering injury losses, will be what comes to define their 2021 season, especially if the Ravens lose the AFC North or fail to even reach the playoffs. We might have taken that gamble once, but all the probabilistic arguments in the world would not have swayed us to take it twice.

The Packers special teams allowed a long kickoff return, interfered with a punt return, and shanked a punt, among other blunders on Sunday. It wasn’t as bad as last Sunday’s catastrophe against the Chicago Bears, but it’s a weakness that kept the Ravens in the game: that shanked punt, for example, gave them the ball near midfield on their final touchdown drive.

It goes without saying that the Packers need to solve their all-around special teams problem before it becomes the thing that sabotages them in the playoffs.

What’s Next: Lots and lots and lots of debates about the merits of late-game two-point conversions. Then the Ravens visit the Bengals with the AFC North on the line while the Packers host whoever is healthy for the Browns on Christmas Day.

Week 15 Awards

Offensive Line of the Week
The Lions offensive line of Taylor Decker, Tommy Kraemer, Evan Brown, Halapoulivaati Vaitai, and Penei Sewell helped Craig Reynolds rush for 112 yards and held the Cardinals to just two sacks.

The Colts offensive line outplayed the Lions line, but we use these results to highlight Sunday’s games whenever possible.

Defender of the Week
Bengals edge rusher Khalid Kareem earns this week’s honor, in part because we wanted an excuse to mention the 15-10 Bengals victory over the Broncos, but mostly because this play is both heads-up and rather hilarious, right down to the Bengals Twitter account mistakingly assuming that they retained possession:

SO IT’S OUR BALL! WHAT A PLAY FROM @khalid_kareem53

Watch on CBS pic.twitter.com/TMM3AtoKaL

— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals) December 19, 2021

Nothing says Bengals football like one player forcing a fumble, recovering a fumble, returning a fumble, and losing a fumble on the same play, with viewers left baffled about how to interpret what they saw.

(EDITOR’S NOTE: After replay review, it was determined that that Cincinnati had retained possession, but Kareem was down by contact at the 15-yard line.)

Special Teamer of the Week
More from the Bengals: Evan McPherson kicked three field goals, including 53- and 58-yarders, to keep them ahead of the Broncos.

E.J. Speed probably deserves the award over McPherson for Saturday night’s critical blocked punt and touchdown, but again: we try to focus on Sunday’s games. Also, we used up all of our Speed Racer gags the last time Speed was involved in a blocked kick.

Best Supporting Actor in Someone Else’s Highlight
This week’s award goes to the rando running onto the field during James Robinson’s touchdown in the Jaguars’ loss to the Texans. Watch him enter the frame through the back of the end zone at around the five-second mark:

Urban Meyer cares so much about Jacksonville he just had to be back on the field for that first TD pic.twitter.com/kMTJvJUwLf

— Will Brinson (@WillBrinson) December 19, 2021

No, that wasn’t Urban Meyer. It poured for much of the afternoon in Jacksonville. You think Urban Meyer wants to be out in the rain, even when he is supposed to be working? Meyer was at home making money angels on his living room floor Sunday and waiting for some midmajor or broadcast network to toss him a golden parachute.

No, that was actually deposed Panthers offensive coordinator Joe Brady, showing up early for a job interview and demonstrating his eagerness to UNLOCK Trevor Lawrence’s potential by calling a play before he was even hired.

Honorable mention goes to the two fans who nope’d out of catching Christian Wilkins when he leapt into the stands after his Big Man Touchdown, resulting in a 300-plus-pound man folding in half and sinking butt-first toward the ground with glee.

Christian Wilkins with the BIG MAN TD!

(via @NFLUK)pic.twitter.com/LHOMWTBWpx

— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) December 19, 2021

Oh, speaking of Carolina Panthers genius coaches past and present…

Burn This Play!
It’s fourth-and-1. You are whichever of Matt Rhule’s ol’ chums just got promoted to offensive coordinator. Cam Newton is your quarterback. His arm has been a rusty hinge for at least two years, and he barely knows a fraction of the playbook, but he can still barrel straight ahead in short-yardage situations, and the Bills have had trouble stopping him on designed runs for most of the game.

So naturally, you call some doomed RPO screen. Yes, Newton’s throw is hilarious, but an accurate throw might well have been a pick-six the other way because Levi Wallace gets such a good jump on the play.

NFL starting quarterback Cam Newton:

pic.twitter.com/77SgJBnGyb

— Action Network NFL (@ActionNetNFL) December 19, 2021

OK, forget that play. It’s fourth-and-5 at the 10-yard line. A touchdown gets you back in the game. Time to roll the pocket? Threaten some play-action? Do something to make the Bills respect Cam’s legs? Nah. How about a straight drop behind the league’s worst offensive line, allowing Jerry Hughes to easily swat Cam’s pass aside?

On 4th & 4, Newton incomplete turnover on downs#Panthers 8 #Bills 24 Q4 pic.twitter.com/LAtUSIhvY7

— Sports 24/7 (@Sports24x7_) December 19, 2021

Remember when the Panthers started the season as 3-0 sleeper favorites? That was 10,000 years ago.

Frame This Play!
Just as the Bengals social media department was confused by Khalid Kareem’s fumble-fumble, the Jets Twitterer didn’t quite know what to make of this hook-and-lateral:

Hook and…throw it across the field???#NYJvsMIA on CBS pic.twitter.com/MiiiSGw3w4

— New York Jets (@nyjets) December 19, 2021

Walkthrough doesn’t advocate building an offense about overhand laterals thrown from midfield toward the sideline. But the hook-and-lateral has a high enough success rate that teams should probably run it once or twice per year in third-and-long situations. (“Kirk Cousins-to-Justin Jefferson for eight yards on third-and-10, but wait! Jefferson pitches to Dalvin Cook with a full head of steam!”) Instead, Walkthrough has seen perhaps a half-dozen of them in 40-plus years of NFL viewing. Let’s get innovative, coaches!

Burn This Career Decision!
Let’s check in on Frank Gore’s boxing debut against former NBA star Deron Williams:

DERON WILLIAMS SHOVED FRANK GORE DOWN 😮

(via @ShowtimeBoxing)pic.twitter.com/CvJpUUxX2r

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) December 19, 2021

The rest of the brief bout was less lopsided, with Williams winning by a split decision. But do we really want to see a beloved tough-guy running back and likely future Hall of Famer “boxing” by hugging his opponent around the thighs before being tossed out of the ring like a drunk out of a strip club?

Gore says he had “fun” against Williams. Some dudes are just built different, especially dudes who play running back into their 30s. Gore can do what he wants with his life, but Walkthrough will be rooting for him to retire to a life of leisure, not whatever the heck that was.

Covid Szn 2021

As you may have heard, the NFL faced a sudden surge of COVID positives early last week. That surge escalated throughout the week to the point where teams such as the Browns and Washington had so many players unavailable that they were signing guys off the street and inserting them directly into their projected starting lineups.

Faced with some patently ridiculous and potentially dangerous competitive imbalances, the NFL decided to take action. One of two things happened next. Either:

• The pragmatic NFL and NFLPA shrewdly made a compromise which delayed three games until Monday and Tuesday so some of the asymptomatic players on the most depleted teams could return to the field, in exchange for relaxed testing protocols for vaccinated, asymptomatic players; or
   
• The sinister NFL and NFLPA nefariously made a compromise which delayed three games until Monday and Tuesday so some of the asymptomatic players on the most depleted teams could return to the field, in exchange for relaxed testing protocols for vaccinated, asymptomatic players.

Whether you believe the first or second version of events depends upon your rooting interest and your general level of cynicism about the league’s motives, the collective bargaining process, or human nature itself. At any rate, there are four games scheduled for Monday and Tuesday night. Walkthrough won’t preview them here because we have no clue who will be available for them.

It’s easy to criticize how the NFL and NFLPA handled the last 96 hours or so. A little too easy. Yes, the league’s response was haphazard. Yes, the relaxed protocols may increase the risk of COVID spread in locker rooms, though it sure feels a little late to close that barn door based on our national statistics and projections. Yes, the Eagles, Seahawks, and Raiders lost potential gimme wins and now face short weeks in preparation for Week 16. Yes, ticket holders were inconvenienced.

Now, let’s hear any and all solutions that would satisfy everyone: players, owners, union leadership, fans of all 32 teams, television networks, epidemiologists, etc. Bring on the workable proposals!

Umm, yeah, the teams that broke protocols should have forfeited. And then the league should have added Week 19 in late January to reschedule games if neither team was at fault. And those games should only be postponed if, um, the fourth-string quarterback is required to start, but not the third-stringer. Oh, and testing should be daily for vaccinated players with no symptoms! Not for teachers, first responders, or (heaven forbid) sportswriters: I don’t want a swab jammed up MY nose every morning when I feel fine and have had three shots. Just football players! And then the league should do something something something to ensure that none of this impacts the playoff schedule…

Not so easy now, is it?

No one wants games to be forfeited, even if some team “broke the rules.” (All 32 teams have probably broken some rules over the last five months). No one but the most hardened homers wanted to see the Raiders or Eagles face a glorified version of Bishop Sycamore. Extending the season by a week might only have moved make-up games into the peak (per many models) of the current COVID surge.

As for the decreased testing: it jibes with both some of the expert opinions I have read and with how most of us are living our daily lives. The NFLPA performed a 180-degree turn on its testing agenda, but that’s because leadership A) didn’t have the support of its constituency when it comes to daily testing for the vaccinated; B) may have been grandstanding on that plank of their platform for long-range bargaining purposes; and C) is probably in the same place most of us are as we navigate through the latest surge.

Are the NFL or NFLPA above criticism? Of course not. But in the span of about 48 hours, the league and union were resoundingly criticized for not postponing games, then postponing them, then making a compromise that prevents future postponements. Sometimes, the same people leveled all three criticisms, even the contradictory ones. And many of those same critics, after accusing the NFL of all manner of callous or dangerous skullduggery, spent Saturday night and Sunday cheering for touchdowns. At some point, ceaseless knee-jerk NFL IS EVIL criticism just sounds like shrill, self-indulgent, freshman-dormitory, Stick-it-to-the-Man posturing, adding little to the discussion of complex, serious issues.

None of us have all the answers or knows for sure what the next month or two will bring, in football and in everyday life. Most of us are guessing, compromising, adjusting on the fly, and hoping, just like the NFL and NFLPA. And come Tuesday night, whether you think the league’s decisions were fair or unfair, safe or unsafe, chances are you will probably be glued to your television, just like me.