Zimmer Ranks Among ESPN’s Top Coaches on 4th-Down…

It appears that coaches around the league are getting more aggressive.

Tim McManus of ESPN looked at recent trends with coaches going for it on fourth downs, and the data shows they will likely be yet another record number of attempts in 2021.

Coaches are on pace to dial up 838 fourth-down tries in 2021, up from 780 the year prior. (Even if this were still a 16-game season, they’d be on track for 788 attempts.) It will mark the fourth consecutive year a new high has been established.

Not only are coaches going for it more on fourth down, they’re getting better at making those calls that give them the best chance to win. According to ESPN Stats & Information research, the number of fourth-down errors has plummeted each of the past four seasons, reaching a new low of 951 leaguewide in 2020 and on pace for even fewer this season.

The increased application of analytics has changed the game on fourth down. Coaches across the league are being guided by game-management specialists who communicate the probabilities of an upcoming fourth-down try in real time.

With that in mind, ESPN wanted to see where all 32 NFL head coaches ranked in terms of making key fourth-down decisions with their current teams.

ESPN looked at three main pieces of data: total win probability sacrificed through fourth-down errors, difference in expected fourth-down conversion rates vs. actual rates and non-obvious fourth-down error rate.