WR Slot vs. Wide – Week 3
5 min read
If you need a WR start after a lackluster Week 2, you’ve come to the right place! I’ll be your pilot all season, highlighting my favorite WRs using our proprietary data. Let’s dive into my favorite WR starts and sits for Week 3 using Wide Receiver Fantasy Points Scored Slot vs. Wide and our Defense Slot vs. Wide data.
The Slot vs. Wide chart breaks down how many fantasy points a wide receiver has scored from the slot versus out wide, while the defensive chart shows where opposing WRs are finding fantasy production against each defense. By comparing the two, we can identify some intriguing alignment-based matchups for Week 3.
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Starts
- Player: Chris Olave
- Opponent: vs. Raiders
Through two games, guess which defense is allowing the highest percentage of its WR fantasy points through the slot? You guessed it—the Raiders, who are one of two defenses allowing 50% or more of their WR fantasy points from the slot. I’ll admit the Ryan Miller touchdown skews the number a bit, but I’m not ignoring what the data is telling us.
Olave is averaging the fourth-most fantasy points from the slot among WRs this season and has amassed double-digit targets in both games. With the Raiders struggling to contain slot production, I’m expecting another healthy target workload for Olave and another top-10 WR finish.
- Player: Jalen Coker
- Opponent: at Cleveland
The Panthers’ passing offense has been rolling through two weeks and now gets a favorable matchup against the Browns, who are allowing the second-most fantasy points to WRs overall and the most fantasy points to slot receivers. Cleveland has allowed roughly a 60/40 split between outside and slot WR production, giving Coker a clear path to production.
Coker is the only Carolina WR averaging fantasy points from the slot, and he’s seeing a healthy nine targets per game. Whether Bryce Young finds him inside or outside, Coker should once again have enough volume to give us a legitimate shot at another double-digit PPR performance.
WR3 Starts (WRs ranked outside the top 25)
- Player: Emeka Egbuka
- Opponent: vs. Vikings
To my surprise, Egbuka has yet to crack the top 25 at WR despite stepping into a much larger role following the departure of Mike Evans. I think that changes this weekend against Minnesota.
The Vikings are allowing 38.8 fantasy points per game to WRs lined up outside, the most in the league. Egbuka leads the Bucs WRs with 11 targets and has generated 83% of his fantasy production from out wide, putting him in an excellent position to attack Minnesota’s biggest defensive weakness. The matchup and usage are both pointing in the right direction. Fire up Egbuka as a WR3 with plenty of upside.
- Player: Rashod Bateman
- Opponent: vs. Cowboys in Rio de Janeiro
The Cowboys have allowed 34.5 fantasy points per game to WRs lined up outside, the second-highest mark in the league behind Minnesota. Bateman, meanwhile, has generated 83% of his fantasy production from out wide, creating one of the biggest alignment-versus-defense mismatches on the Week 3 slate.
I’m going back to the well with Bateman, especially with Zay Flowers dealing with a hamstring injury. Bateman exploded for nine targets, seven receptions, 88 yards and a touchdown in Week 2 while playing 93% of Baltimore’s offensive snaps.
The Ravens-Cowboys matchup also carries a 52.5-point implied total, the highest on the Week 3 slate. Did I mention Bateman averages 16.5 PPR points per game when he sees seven or more targets? Get him in your lineup!
- Player: KC Concepcion
- Opponent: vs. Panthers
All the talk in the fantasy community is about Denzel Boston, and deservedly so. However, when digging into the numbers, Carolina is allowing 49% of its WR fantasy points through the slot, the third-highest rate in the league.
That’s important when evaluating Cleveland’s WRs because Concepcion is generating 71% of his fantasy production from the slot. That creates a sneaky alignment advantage against a Panthers defense that has struggled to contain receivers working inside.
In what could be a high-scoring matchup, I can envision Concepcion seeing his highest snap count of the season while also setting a new high in targets. If that happens, his best performance of the rookie season could be coming in Week 3.
Sits
- Player: DK Metcalf
- Opponent: vs. Bengals
Metcalf has generated 100% of his fantasy production from out wide through two games. Unfortunately, Cincinnati has allowed just 10.4 fantasy points per game to perimeter receivers, the lowest mark in the league. The way the Steelers’ passing offense is trending, it’s hard to have faith in Metcalf even with Michael Pittman Jr. set to miss his second game.
With Pittman sidelined, you’d think there would be more opportunity for Metcalf, but the matchup and his alignment make this a difficult spot. I’m looking elsewhere if I have a comparable option with a better Week 3 matchup.
- Player: Michael Wilson
- Opponent: at San Francisco
Despite all the attention surrounding Marvin Harrison Jr., Wilson has quietly emerged as the Cardinals’ de facto WR1 in terms of opportunity. Unfortunately, he finds himself in a difficult matchup against San Francisco.
Through two games, Wilson has generated 100% of his fantasy production from out wide, while the 49ers have allowed just 11.4 fantasy points per game to outside receivers. The Cardinals’ offense features Trey McBride heavily, creating a difficult path to consistent production. Unless you’re desperate for a big play, I’m looking elsewhere in Week 3.
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