September 7, 2026

Tom Brady’s bad night causes MVP odds to tighten

2 min read
New Orleans Saints v Tampa Bay Buccaneers




New Orleans Saints v Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Getty Images

Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady remains the betting favorite to win the NFL MVP award, but the trend is definitely not his friend.

Sunday night’s shutout loss to the Saints, only the third zero-point outing of Brady’s career, has caused him to drop, via PointsBet, from -170 to +120 to secure the prize. Meanwhile, Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is closing fast, with Sunday’s win at Baltimore pushing him from +550 to +160.

That makes sense. If the Packers secure the No. 1 seed in the NFC, it will be very difficult to not vote for Rodgers.

Meanwhile, Colts running back Jonathan Taylor is making a move. He’s now fourth on the list, at +1400. (Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has gone from +1200 to +1000.) If Indy wins the AFC South, is Taylor the MVP?

The biggest free fall belongs to Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray. Last Monday, he had +900 odds. Intervening losses to the Rams and the lowly Lions have sent him to +3300.

I remain intrigued by Rams receiver Cooper Kupp at +10000. If he sets the single-season reception and/or yardage record and if the Rams win the division, does he get votes? Ultimately, he may end up splitting them with quarterback Matthew Stafford.



Tom Brady’s bad night causes MVP odds to tighten



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