Taylor, Colts Top Weak Fantasy Slate

NFL Week 17 – With byes in Week 14, the recent explosion of omicron COVID cases, and now the NFL changing its policies on the required absences of positive tests, these fantasy playoffs have been an incredible mental challenge. Congratulations if you made it to your fantasy title games. In an effort to help you secure that one last win, what follows are the projection adjustments and my explanations for the players with the best and worst Week 17 matchups. Good luck!

The following tables feature the players with the best and worst matchups of the week. Each listed player shows a true-talent (TT) ranking that represents how I would rank him with a perfectly neutral game context. Then, that ranking is adjusted by adding the context of the venue (Ven)—home and road and dome and outside—the forecasted weather (Wea), and opponent tendencies (Opp). The line beneath those rankings shows how much those contextual factors move projected PPR fantasy points. That total (Tot) number gives you a comprehensive estimate of how many fantasy points the player will score this week more or less than his typical total.

You can see our full weekly projections with projected stats, matchup adjustments and fantasy points by subscribing to FO+.

Quarterbacks

As a proponent of quarterback streaming in fantasy, I was disappointed that championship week didn’t yield a bunch of attractive matchups for the effort. And even some of the few that exist are complicated by COVID or injury considerations. I might have considered Carson Wentz or Derek Carr dodging the cold winter weather in the former’s dome stadium, but the unvaccinated Wentz could miss the start after a positive COVID test and Carr has not thrown two touchdowns in a game since Week 10 and may still be without his best receiver in tight end Darren Waller. Even with the matchup boosts, Wentz and Carr rank just 15th and 16th at the position this week. Hopefully you have an every-week starter if you made it this far in your fantasy seasons!

Among that set, I’ll highlight Dak Prescott since his five-game slump from Weeks 11 to 15 featured as many interceptions as touchdowns and knocked him out of my top 10 in true talent at the position. But I’ll also note that he suffered that fall in a stretch of four of five games on the road, and Prescott has averaged 7.2 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road in recent seasons. That’s the second-highest home/road split among current starters and makes sense for a quarterback that plays his home games in a dome. As the No. 5 pass defense by DVOA, the Cardinals are a sterner test than the 27th-ranked Washington pass defense that Prescott lit up for 330 yards and four touchdowns last Sunday. But in net, the projections still boost him to a top-10 ranking at the position this week, and I think if anything that undersells Prescott with the dramatically more extreme venue benefits he has seen over an extended period in Dallas.

Best DraftKings Values: Trey Lance ($1,700 underpriced at $4,800), Taysom Hill ($1,100 underpriced at $6,000), Dak Prescott ($500 underpriced at $6,800)

Best FanDuel Values: Trey Lance ($1,300 underpriced at $6,400), Taysom Hill ($500 underpriced at $7,700), Dak Prescott ($500 underpriced at $7,400)

Assuming they both play, the running quarterbacks Trey Lance and Taysom Hill are likely the only ones I would consider over top talents such as Prescott or Justin Herbert in daily formats. Hill may have disappointed even before his COVID absence without a touchdown in Week 15 in Tampa Bay, but he still has exactly 11 carries in all three of his starts for the Saints this season. I believe he has a higher fantasy floor than his reputation. That said, Lance is the more compelling daily option. For one, he’s dramatically less expensive at just $4,800 in DraftKings and $6,400 in FanDuel, I believe because his salaries were set before news broke that normal 49ers starter Jimmy Garoppolo had injured his thumb. For another, we really don’t know what we’ll get from Lance as a starter. He played almost exactly six quarters in Weeks 4 and 5 and ran a Lamar Jackson-like 23 times. But head coach Kyle Shanahan has lauded Lance for his improvements in practice, and so I feel like I’m mostly guessing with our projection of 30.1 passes and 8.9 carries this week. Consider the risk in traditional and head-to-head matchups. But Lance should be an enticing option in the biggest contests, even if he is more difficult to stack with his receivers than a traditional pocket passer would be.

Joe Burrow went off for 525 passing yards and four touchdowns on Sunday and restarted the debate of whether he or Justin Herbert has the brighter future. But in case you missed Vince’s invaluable Quick Reads on the subject, consider the circumstances. The Ravens were decimated by defensive injuries even before COVID robbed them of their last starters in the secondary. Burrow didn’t pop as a standout matchup boost for me last week because the projection’s opponent adjustments rely on longer periods of time and are therefore slower to react to a wave of injuries. But to my mind, they rightly see Burrow’s Week 17 Chiefs opponent as a matchup downgrade, especially with a forecasted kickoff temperature of 31 degrees with sustained winds of 15mph and gusts to 29mph in Cincinnati this Sunday. The Chiefs dug a deep hole in the first month and a half of the season that their 16th-ranked defensive DVOA has yet to fully escape. But the opponent adjustments underscore their defensive improvements. After peaking as about 25% increasers of both passing yards and touchdowns per attempt, the Chiefs have pulled their Week 17 defensive adjustments to neutral or slightly better. And they are downright unfriendly to runners as 38% cutters of rushing touchdowns per attempt. There isn’t the depth of appealing quarterback options to kick Burrow lower than 13th at the position this week in fantasy. But he may not be the slum-dunk starter that last week’s outburst would suggest, especially if you snagged a Taysom Hill type as injury insurance.

Worst DraftKings Values: Joe Burrow ($600 overpriced at $6,900), Russell Wilson ($400 overpriced at $6,200), Taylor Heinicke ($200 overpriced at $5,300)

Worst FanDuel Values: Taylor Heinicke ($500 overpriced at $6,900), Joe Burrow ($300 overpriced at $7,700), Russell Wilson ($200 overpriced at $7,300)

This isn’t an issue in traditional formats, where even a Tua Tagovailoa falls short of typical fantasy relevance. But in daily formats, where player values are relative to their salaries, three teams are reportedly considering quarterback platoons this week. The Panthers have already done that dance a few times this season, but this week’s expected version with Sam Darnold as the primary player is a fantasy disqualifier with Cam Newton likely to rob him of his red zone scoring opportunities. But the Giants and Washington are new to the game. And while I can’t picture a league deep enough for either a full-time Mike Glennon or Jake Fromm to crack a fantasy lineup, Taylor Heinicke could have made some deeper-league sense playing an Eagles defense that is better against the run (12th in DVOA) than the pass (21st). That isn’t the case now. Be sure to avoid Heinicke with Kyle Allen poised to see some snaps as a 2022 tryout.

Running Backs

Rashaad Penny has had two tremendous performances and one terrible one in his new turn as the Seahawks starter, and matchups undoubtedly account for some of that unevenness. Penny ran for 272 combined yards and three touchdowns when facing the Texans and Bears, ranked 26th and 24th in run defense DVOA, but he managed just 39 yards and failed to score against the top-four Rams run defense. I’m not sure that trend bodes well for Penny in the long run, but it lends me confidence this week when the Seahawks face another porous run defense. The Lions rank 28th in run defense DVOA and boost rushing yards and touchdowns by 7% and 81% per attempt. It isn’t quite enough to jump Penny to an RB2 this week, but his 25th-place ranking should land him in plenty of fantasy champion lineups as a priority flex option.

Best DraftKings Values: Jonathan Taylor ($3,000 underpriced at $9,000), Dare Ogunbowale ($1,100 underpriced at $5,100), Darrel Williams ($1,100 underpriced at $5,800)

Best FanDuel Values: Dare Ogunbowale ($1,100 underpriced at $5,500), Darrel Williams ($1,000 underpriced at $6,200), Ronald Jones ($300 underpriced at $7,000)

Dare Ogunbowale and Darrel Williams pop as standout DFS values with their normal starters James Robinson and Clyde Edwards-Helaire out injured. But neither is without risk. Ogunbowale dominated the Jaguars backfield in both snaps (82%) and touches (19) after Robinson went down last week, and the team lacks other appealing options with just Nathan Cottrell, Ryquell Armstead, and now Mekhi Sargent on their roster. But the Jaguars also face a Patriots defense ranked eighth in run defense DVOA that cuts rushing touchdowns by 54% per attempt, the most in football. And while the Bengals boost rushing touchdown rate thanks to a weaker pass defense that creates red zone opportunities, they are much tougher against the run (seventh in DVOA) than the pass (22nd) and cut run plays by 16% per game because of it. Meanwhile, Williams could face some competition from teammates Derrick Gore and Jerick McKinnon. Gore out-touched Williams 15 to 14 last week, albeit on a small snap share (28% versus 42%) and in a blowout of the Steelers. And the Chiefs activated McKinnon from injured reserve. None of that scares me off of Ogunbowale and Williams at their prices, but I probably wouldn’t put both of them in every lineup I play this weekend.

Rex Burkhead was a popular waiver recommendation after he gouged the Chargers for 149 yards and two touchdowns last Sunday. And although it cannot explain away an unexpected game script, that matchup does account for Burkhead’s outlier efficiency. The Chargers are dead -ast in run defense DVOA. Burkhead will have a more difficult test in a 49ers defense ranked second in run defense this Sunday, and that seems likely to matter more for him than it would for backs on other teams. That’s because the Texans have by far the worst adjusted line yards on offense in football. And unsurprisingly then, Burkhead has not bested 41 rushing yards in any of his other games this season, including in the previous five when he took 18, 12, 8, 11, and 16 carries. His 41st ranking at the position assumes teammate David Johnson’s return, which looks less likely after the latter back landed on the COVID list this week. But even if Burkhead maintains his recent bell-cow role, he’s likely to disappoint his fantasy managers.

Worst DraftKings Values: Damien Harris ($900 overpriced at $6,600), Ezekiel Elliott ($400 overpriced at $7,100), Myles Gaskin ($300 overpriced at $5,100)

Worst FanDuel Values: Alvin Kamara ($1,600 overpriced at $9,200), Damien Harris ($1,100 overpriced at $7,400), Myles Gaskin ($600 overpriced at $5,900)

Ezekiel Elliott and Alvin Kamara continue to be every-week starts in traditional formats. But recent changes in their circumstances have made both players unappealing at their top-10 DFS salaries. Elliott has been playing through a knee injury for much of the season, and it has shown in his drop from 19.7 touches per game and 2.1 yards after contact per attempt the first eight weeks to 14.6 and 1.6 the last eight weeks. And although Kamara has fully recovered from his own knee injury, he has seen just five, six, and four targets the last three weeks with Taysom Hill and Ian Book at quarterback. That’s a far cry from the 6.8 targets Kamara averaged over the first four years of his career.

Wide Receivers

The top matchup list for receivers will likely surprise you if you focus on opponents such as the Cardinals and Broncos (ranked fifth and 16th in pass defense DVOA) and the Chargers that, while in the bottom 10, are still markedly worse against the run and therefore promote run plays by 15% per game. But if you look at the adjustment breakdowns, you’ll see that these boosts are driven by venues. Domes increase receiver yards and touchdowns by about 7% and 8% per target whether at home or on the road. And those benefits should stand out even more by comparison to the receivers stuck outside in winter weather such as the Falcons, Bills, Giants, and Bears players stuck with below-freezing temperatures and the Jaguars, Patriots, Eagles, and Washington receivers facing 55% chances of rain.

The lack of elements could boost rookie Chargers wideout Josh Palmer into the top 30 at the position this week and make him one of the best daily values at the position. He has played 87% and 97% of snaps and seen seven in six targets in a pair of spot starts for Keenan Allen and Mike Williams in Weeks 14 and 16. But keep an eye on the news. Williams was originally ruled out for both Weeks 16 and 17 as an unvaccinated positive COVID tester. But the NFL’s new testing policies would allow the veteran to return this week if he cleared his symptoms, a possibility that would return Palmer to a non-factor in fantasy.

Best DraftKings Values: Antonio Brown ($2,500 underpriced at $6,100), Cooper Kupp ($1,000 underpriced at $9,500), Zay Jones ($800 underpriced at $3,900)

Best FanDuel Values: Zay Jones ($600 underpriced at $5,100), Jerry Jeudy ($300 underpriced at $5,700), Christian Kirk ($200 underpriced at $6,400)

The question of whether Antonio Brown had remained in football shape over a 10-week absence this season was quickly and definitively answered on Sunday with 10 catches and 101 yards on 15 targets. Brown most likely owes those extreme totals to injuries to teammates Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, but Godwin is out for the season and Evans saw his recovery from a hamstring injury compounded by a positive COVID test this week. Brown will likely be the lone member of that standout trio on the field this Sunday, and he has a full-season average of 9.5 targets per game in any case. That’s top-10 among wide receivers and more than justifies his $6,100 DraftKings salary that ranks just 21st-highest.

Lions rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown has exploded for 12, 12, 11, and 11 targets the last four weeks and may prove to be a fantasy-league winner. His 11.5 targets per game in that stretch trail just WR1s in Justin Jefferson, Cooper Kupp, and Chris Godwin and have enticed me to project a similarly high total of 9.6 targets this week that lands him in the back end of my PPR WR1s in true talent. But I can’t claim I’m not nervous, especially with the Lions traveling to the winter wonderland Seattle has surprisingly become this December. A temperature pushing 40 degrees should save St. Brown from the snow that the Bears played in last Sunday. But Seattle will still be cold and faces a 78% chance of rain wind gusts to 20mph. Those conditions will encourage the Lions to run the ball. And while the Seahawks have been more efficient run defenders (ninth in DVOA) than pass defenders (28th), they have also been the No. 1 boosters of run plays per game at 20%. The dramatic decline of their offense has allowed other teams to build leads and run to suit their game scripts. And if the Lions enjoy similar success this Sunday, St. Brown may fall a bit short of his recent standard of fantasy productivity.

Worst DraftKings Values: Brandon Aiyuk ($1,400 overpriced at $5,900), DK Metcalf ($1,400 overpriced at $6,500), Terry McLaurin ($1,200 overpriced at $6,200)

Worst FanDuel Values: Terry McLaurin ($1,000 overpriced at $7,000), Allen Robinson ($500 overpriced at $5,500), DK Metcalf ($500 overpriced at $6,600)

Allen Robinson has maintained a palatable 21.1% target share this season. That just misses the top 30 among wide receivers, but it lands him between fantasy performers such as CeeDee Lamb (21.6%), Chris Godwin (21.5%), Hunter Renfrow (21.1%), and DeAndre Hopkins (21.0%). Robinson’s fall from fantasy grace owes a lot to a transition from a more traditional pocket passer to Justin Fields, whose 27.1 pass attempts per game in his healthy starts are close to eight fewer than an average passer. And I suspect Brandon Aiyuk will take a similar hit with the 49ers poised to start their dual-threat rookie Trey Lance. As discussed, my Lance projection of 30.1 pass attempts is a guess. But he threw just 29 attempts in his lone start in Week 5 and faces a Texans opponent the 49ers could likely dispatch with almost exclusively run plays. I don’t think it’s worth the risk in DFS, where Aiyuk remains expensive at $5,900 in DraftKings.

Tight Ends

Noah Fant has not taken the third-year leap many expected of the former first-rounder. But he can’t blame opportunities. His 18.3% target share is 10th-highest at his position. Fant’s issue, for at least fantasy purposes, is a lack of touchdowns. And although his meager total of three scores matches his 2.8 expected touchdowns based on the location and air yards of his targets, Fant should enjoy a better chance of finding the end zone this weekend. His opposing Chargers are the No. 1 increaser of tight end touchdowns per target at 79% and are tied with the Eagles for the most touchdowns allowed to the position (12).

Best DraftKings Values: Tyler Kroft ($800 underpriced at $2,700), Mo Alie-Cox ($700 underpriced at $2,900), Cameron Brate ($700 underpriced at $2,900)

Best FanDuel Values: Mo Alie-Cox ($400 underpriced at $4,600), Jared Cook ($400 underpriced at $4,900), Tyler Kroft ($400 underpriced at $4,600)

As much as I like Fant’s matchup this Sunday, he does not match players such as Tyler Kroft, Mo-Alie Cox, and Cameron Brate for DFS value relative to their low salaries. That’s because the latter set should benefit from extra opportunities because of teammate injuries. Ryan Griffin went on injured reserve with a knee injury this week, and that leaves the Jets with just Kroft and a yet-to-be-targeted rookie in Kenny Yeboah at tight end. Kroft’s five targets and 86% snap share in Week 16 were both season highs. Jack Doyle suffered knee and ankle injuries on Sunday that pushed Alie-Cox to his season high of a 90% snap share, as well. And while Brate remains a clear second tight end behind Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay ran more two-tight end sets with Godwin and Evans out in Week 16 and should do the same against a Jets team this week they will likely try to bully with a run-oriented game plan. A bet on Brate is a bet on a possible touchdown, but I expect a few extra swipes at that apple compared to usual this week.

Kyle Pitts may have disappointed some fantasy players with his single touchdown this season. But his proximity to 1,000 yards and recent improving trend from 26 to 48, 61, 77, and 102 yards the last four weeks has likely convinced many players to trust him in fantasy. I fully endorse that trust in traditional formats. With 4.8 expected touchdowns, Pitts has suffered the biggest touchdown shortfall at his position and will likely see better luck going forward. But for DFS consideration, you should not expect that increasing yardage trend to continue. Last week’s Lions were 17% increasers of tight end yards per target, and this week’s Bills are 14% decreasers, sixth-most in football. It’s not enough to knock Pitts from his fifth-place true talent rankings, but I would temper my expectations for the talented rookie this week.

Worst DraftKings Values: George Kittle ($2,000 overpriced at $7,100), Mike Gesicki ($1,400 overpriced at $5,300), Kyle Pitts ($1,000 overpriced at $5,900)

Worst FanDuel Values: George Kittle ($1,100 overpriced at $7,100), Mike Gesicki ($700 overpriced at $5,900), James O’Shaughnessy ($300 overpriced at $5,100)

It is easy enough to avoid a WR3 such as Brandon Aiyuk in daily fantasy. But George Kittle has been the No. 2 PPR scorer at his position since he returned from a calf injury in Week 9. And there may not be many other elite tight end options this week with Darren Waller dealing with knee and back injuries and now on the COVID list. I won’t insist that you leave Kittle out of your contest lineups. But it wouldn’t be surprising for Kittle to be the biggest fantasy loser of the 49ers’ switch to Trey Lance at quarterback. Beyond the expected decline in pass attempts, a run-heavier approach could cost the versatile Kittle extra pass routes if he stays in more to block. I’m projecting 6.7 targets for Kittle this Sunday, still a top-tier total for such a fantasy-unfriendly position. But as the No. 3 salary in both DraftKings and FanDuel, Kittle may not be the no-brainer daily start he usually is.