Super Bowl LVI: The Last Rams Roundup?

NFL Super Bowl – In this Rams-tastic, super-sized Super Bowl LVI edition of Walkthrough:

• Aaron Donald doesn’t provide many straight answers about his retirement rumors;
• Cooper Kupp and Sean McVay explain how they turned things on in the final drive;
• We roll through some thoughts from the (auxiliary) press box at Sofi Stadium; and
• We look ahead to 2022 with some way-too-early power rankings.

But first …

The Master Rams Plan

“I’m just really pleased to be associated with a group that is not afraid to shoot their shot and take chances on things we feel like is in the best interest of the football team. There are a lot of rolled eyes at us, but we believe in those things and we’re going to do things that we think are in the best interest.”
—Sean McVay, after Super Bowl LVI on the Rams’ roster-building philosophy.

The Los Angeles Rams always knew exactly what they were doing.

They knew they were bucking two streams of conventional wisdom: the old-school “build deliberately through the draft” stream; and the newfangled, analytics-scented “every third-round pick is a nugget of pure gold (and each first-rounder a Hope Diamond)” stream. The Rams didn’t build their Super Bowl LVI-winning roster by exploiting market inefficiencies—Matthew Stafford and Jalen Ramsey, among others, did not come cheap—but by taking a series of well-calculated risks, then mitigating those risks with a clever draft-and-development plan for lower-rung prospects.

Such was the gist of Jourdain Rodrigue’s outstanding midweek feature for The Athletic. Once they achieved some success under Sean McVay, the Rams began to value proven veterans over draft picks: risky, but less risky after a team has already homegrown an Aaron Donald and its system and scheme have proven playoff-worthy. The Rams also altered their draft evaluation focus, emphasizing what McVay and his staff didn’t need (pure speed at wide receiver, in Cooper Kupp’s case) as much as what they needed, allowing the team to find late-round values with useful complementary skills. The draft strategy worked in harmony with the aggressive trading strategy, the whole operation made possible by the synergy between McVay and the front office.

The Rams didn’t merely go all in. They “mortgaged their future” to a degree, but a mortgage is not necessarily a terrible thing. They didn’t settle for Jared Goff just because they had drafted him, developed him to a certain point, and paid him. They threw away the nine-wins-and-hope-things-get-better safety net that too many teams use as a crutch. They married their coaching and player-acquisition philosophies effectively, something organizations which change regimes every three years fail to do.

They also enjoyed remarkable good luck, both with a lack of injuries to their star players and their hit rate with guys who arrived in Los Angeles with high-maintenance reputations.

The Rams needed all superstars on deck in their 23-20 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals in Super Bowl LVI. Odell Beckham scored a touchdown before getting injured. Von Miller provided two sacks. Ramsey had a rough game, but any other cornerback would only have fared worse. And of course Donald, Kupp, and Stafford took charge of the game when the Rams trailed in the fourth quarter. Remove one player from the top of the Rams call sheet and we’re waxing rhapsodic about Joe Burrow in this space. With few exceptions, the stars starred and the scrubs scrubbed.

With the Rams and Buccaneers winning back-to-back Super Bowls using dream team tactics, every NFL middleweight and the Broncos will be lining up to secure a disgruntled Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, or Deshaun Watson in the hope of cutting to the front of the Super Bowl line. Much of the both the analytics and traditionalist community will harumph at such tactics, just as many of us harumphed at the Rams every time they suffered a setback this year. Slow and steady indeed wins some races, but barreling as fast as hell also has its merits. The precepts of analytics dictate that teams must be aggressive on fourth downs, in the red zone, and at pushing the ball down the field in the passing game. Next year’s second-round pick won’t help a team convert today’s fourth-and-3. There’s a delicate balance between this Sunday’s needs and next Sunday’s needs. The Rams and Bucs have now illustrated that the balance sometimes favors the bold.

If Sunday was the last we heard from the Rams—if we are watching the Monday Night McVayCast next autumn, injury luck catches up with them, or the cap eats their roster from the inside out—at least we heard from them. And while their copycats may never copy the secret sauce, they will at least make the next few offseasons interesting.

Player Spotlight: Aaron Donald

What He Did
Pregame reports about Donald’s possible retirement caused a stir. Donald did little after Super Bowl LVI to quash those rumors. But in between, he recorded two sacks, helped the Rams pass rush take over the game in the second half, and made back-to-back big plays to seal the game: a third-and-1 assist on a stuff of Samaje Perine, then the hit that forced Joe Burrow to heave the ball away on fourth down.

What They Said
“When he threw it up, my heart kinda jumped, because I saw that the running back was right there, and thought he was gonna catch it.”
—Donald on his game-saving near-sack.

“He’s different. He’s the truth. He never turns it off: on the football field, off the football field, in the locker room, flying on the plane to games, flying on the plane away from games, working out, in meetings. He was determined for this moment.”
—Von Miller on Donald.

“I’m just in the moment right now. I’m just enjoying this with my family … I’m just gonna enjoy this today, for a couple of days.”
—Donald, surrounded by his children, when asked about retirement.

“He has done everything he can possibly do. But this feeling right here: there’s nothing like it. It’s addictive. Coming to the Super Bowl is one thing, but winning it is different. This feeling is great. It makes you want it more and more and more. He has definitely capped off a great career if he chooses to do that. But this is an addictive feeling and I just can’t see him walking away from this.”
—Miller on Donald.

What it Means
If Donald retires on Monday afternoon, he’s a first-ballot Hall of Famer and the Rams are the second-best team in the NFC West. If he returns, the NFC road to Super Bowl LVII runs through Darnold again.

MVP Spotlight: Cooper Kupp

What He Did
Kupp caught three passes for 40 yards and a touchdown in the first half. Then he disappeared for the third quarter and half of the fourth: Matthew Stafford didn’t even appear to look Kupp’s way on a few series. But the 2021 Offensive Player of the Year returned to the game plan when the Rams needed him most, saving the game-winning drive with a fourth–and-1 jet sweep for 7 yards, then catching four more passes, including the back-shoulder fade from the 1-yard line which provided the margin of victory.

What They Said
“A lot of the third-down situations, they were doubling Coop. Especially once Odell went out, they were able to hone in on him. Matthew and Cooper made the most of their opportunities in the most important and critical times.”
—Sean McVay, noting that the Rams were finally able to get their up-tempo offense on track in the final drive.

“We had a little run alert in and we call the run if we get the look we want to … alert and throw a little fade ball up there. Eli Apple had been playing me pretty well the entire game. He really came up and challenged me. He did a really good job with that. Coverage zero, you got that inside leverage so I tried to weave to his leverage and make him move in a little bit and make him jab one time and be able to give Matthew some room to put the ball where he wanted to. And he made a great back-shoulder throw and I was able to come down with it.”
—Kupp on his game-winning touchdown.

“I’m just so proud of Cooper. All the hard work he has put in year after year, playing for his brothers. … It’s not just this year. A lot of people look at it as just this amazing year by Coop. It has been amazing years. It has been a grind. He tore his ACL three years ago. … He’s the most deserving player, not just this year but all the years he put in with us.”
—Injured receiver Robert Woods, noting that he was pulling a towel down over his eyes for most of the final drive.

What it Means
Kupp and Woods will return next year for a Rams team which—barring some mass retirement—should remain Super Bowl favorites. Beyond that, a Super Bowl MVP award and a ring atop a “triple crown” season and an OPOY award could start to form the backbone of a Hall of Fame portfolio.

Notes from Super Bowl LVI

More-or-less real-time observations from SoFi Stadium…

• The Bengals offensive line played very well for most of the first half. Yes, Joe Burrow was getting the ball out quickly, but he was still doing so from clean pockets, while Joe Mixon had room to run. Aaron Donald was quiet until he finally got Burrow on his skates during the Bengals’ failed two-minute drill before halftime.
   
• The Rams ran the ball on third-and-17 and second-and-15 in the first half. They also ran ineffectively on too many first downs and threw short of the sticks on one third-and-7 situation.
   
• On the other hand, the Rams had great success in their play-action boot game: Cooper Kupp’s touchdown, Darrell Henderson’s catch to set it up, and so forth. As a Football Outsiders reader, you know that the Rams did not really need the handoffs to “set up” the play-action.
   
• Odell Beckham’s injury midway through the second quarter derailed the Rams offense. Suddenly Matthew Stafford was throwing deep shots to Van Jefferson and Darrell Henderson. And of course it was Ben Skowronek who tipped the third-quarter interception to Chidobe Awuzie.
   
• Cooper Kupp failed to get out of bounds on a short sideline route before halftime, forcing the Rams to burn their final timeout.
   
• The halftime show was electrifying in person, though the sound quality could have been better. (Yes, I am complaining about the sound quality of a free halftime show chuck full of hip-hop legends from back when I recognized the songs.)
   
• Third quarter starts. Things escalate suddenly.
   
• The Rams get big plays from Skowronek and Brycen Hopkins during a third-quarter drive, then settle for a field goal after a Cam Akers stuff on second-and-3 and an embarrassing rendition of the Philly Special. Maybe Sean McVay should retire after the game either way.
   
• Bengals three-and-out. Starting to look like the Bengals offensive line, like a preschool class on a rainy day, only has so much “good” in them.
   
• Early in the fourth quarter now. The Rams cannot run the ball (but keep trying), their up-tempo game is a disaster, and they cannot locate Cooper Kupp. Fortunately, the Rams defensive front has gone into 2015 Broncos mode, while the Bengals offensive line has reverted to 2021 Bengals mode.
   
• Heading to the interview area soon. Bengals are on a clock-killing drive up by four with over seven minutes left. Somehow feels like it will work.
   
• I packed up my laptop, hustled down an M.C. Escher nightmare of stairwells, and caught the final two minutes of the game on television from the bowels of the stadium. (Note: this is how many media members experience the end of a Super Bowl.) Ultimately, Zac Taylor’s plan to try to eat up half the fourth quarter failed, Kupp converted a fourth-and-1 on a jet sweep on a day when no other running play would have worked, the Rams finally got their up-tempo offense moving, and they started catching the Bengals in predictable zone coverage. Also, the referees rediscovered their whistles in the final minute. The Bengals failed to covert in a pair of short-yardage situations, and they can point to other missed opportunities—another fourth-down stop on a passing play on their opening drive, a pair of short field goals, two straight three-and-outs when the Rams were reeling early in the third quarter—as the primary reason why they couldn’t quite win a game in which so many things went their way.

How the Cincinnati Bengals can Return to the Super Bowl

The Bengals will likely start their offseason by franchise-tagging free-agent safety Jessie Bates. That will eat up about $13 million of their projected $57-plus-million in cap space. Not to criticize the franchise that suddenly went from a hapless shoestring operation to the smartest folks in the room over the last month, but the Bengals really should have locked Bates down long-term during the season. Riley Reiff, Larry Ogunjobi, and C.J. Uzomah are their other top-priority free agents; Walkthrough guesses they will extend offers to Reiff or Uzomah and let the others walk.

Phase 2 of the Bengals improvement plan involves upgrading the offensive line. One option will be to browse the Saints estate sale in search of a Terron Armstead (moving Jonah Williams to the right or inside) or grabbing a Jaguars escapee like Andrew Norwell. Another option: keep Reiff for stability and dig into a draft that’s fairly deep with linemen capable of playing on the interior; Boston College’s versatile Zion Johnson looked great during Senior Bowl week and should be available when the Bengals select.

It would even be worth the Bengals’ while to engineer a blockbuster trade to either acquire a blue-chip veteran lineman or move up in the draft: protecting Joe Burrow is their absolute top priority, after all, and they are plausibly “one player away” from winning it all. But that’s just not the Bengals’ style.

The Bengals could also use another edge rusher and more depth and versatility in coverage. But they are not going to stay in step with the Bills and Chiefs with defense. Their goal will be to score a billion points and try to hold the other AFC powerhouses to around 900 million.

And finally … 2022 Power Rankings!

As part of a tradition that dates back to past outlets, Walkthrough proudly wraps up its 2021 season and Super Bowl LVI coverage with first-look cocktail-napkin power rankings for 2022!

32. Houston Texans
The NFL franchise that now shows up to work every day in its sweatpants.

31. Carolina Panthers
Watch as Matt Rhule burns future assets to acquire Carson Wentz in a comically flailing and futile effort to keep from getting fired by mid-November.

30. New York Jets
There are two types of Jets offseasons: the type where they undergo a tumultuous regime change, and the type where they cross their fingers and hope they made some sort of progress (despite no real evidence) since their last regime change. This is the latter type of offseason.

29. Jacksonville Jaguars
Doug Pederson will get the Jaguars’ arrow pointed in the right direction as soon as he figures out where Urban Meyer crammed the arrow.

28. New York Giants
The impressive new Brian Daboll/Joe Schoen braintrust would earn the Giants a higher ranking if ownership hadn’t already penciled the 2022 season in as a Daniel Jones Indecision Year.

27. New Orleans Saints
Dennis Allen, Taysom Hill, Cameron Jordan, and 51 discount oil change coupons.

26. Detroit Lions
Two first-round picks and a little more growling should turn a few 2021 covers into 2022 victories.

25. Washington Commanders
Commander Ronnie and the Lost Planet Airmen are docked one spot for that awful new name and at least three spots for having no plan whatsoever at quarterback.

24. Atlanta Falcons
Then again, when a team’s plan at quarterback is “Let’s keep playing (and paying) Matt Ryan until his muffler and tailpipe fall off,” having no plan whatsoever starts to look pretty good.

23. Chicago Bears
This year’s coaching cycle took so long that Matt Eberflus is one of the longest-tenured head coaches in the NFL. That’s a good thing, because he and Ryan Pace Poles are facing a two-year rebuild.

22. Las Vegas Raiders
Time to install the New England Patriots’ winning culture! (Translation: time for Josh McDaniels to just start firing and cutting everyone to prove that he’s in charge!)

21. Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray would approve of this ranking if he saw it, but he has muted the words “Arizona Cardinals” on his Twitter feed.

20. Miami Dolphins
The Garoppolization of Tua Tagovailoa under The Adorkable Mike McDaniel is underway. Phase 1: replace between three and five offensive linemen.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
They’re preparing for the 2020 Patriots/2021 Saints daddy went out for smokes and never came back season, where the defense plays hard, the head coach grimaces with determination, and the team ends up just under .500 due to wishful thinking at quarterback.

18. Minnesota Vikings
“You see? The Buccaneers took a huge risk on Tom Brady and all those veterans, and now they are below us in the power rankings. What does that tell you?”
—Rick Spielman and Mike Zimmer, wherever they are, probably.

17. Denver Broncos
Imagine their fans’ frustration when they are forced to settle for Kenny Pickett after an offseason of dreaming of Aaron Rodgers.

16. Pittsburgh Steelers
Imagine their fans’ frustration when they are forced to settle for Mason Rudolph after an offseason spent dreaming of Russell Wilson.

15. Seattle Seahawks
Imagine their fans’ frustration when they are forced to settle for Russell Wilson instead of … wait a minute.

14. Tennessee Titans
Are you there, Curse of 370? It’s us, the Football Outsiders! Sure, we’ll hold.

13. Cleveland Browns
Their offensive line and running game are great, there’s talent all over the defense, and I am running out of lazy Baker Mayfield gags.

12. Indianapolis Colts
Their offensive line and running game are great, there’s talent all over the defense, and I already used my lazy Carson Wentz gag.

11. New England Patriots
Their offensive line and running game are great, there’s talent all over the defense, and since I ranked them this low I don’t dare use a lazy Mac Jones gag.

10. Philadelphia Eagles
This ranking either represents Russell Wilson/Deshaun Watson and the 2021 Eagles or Jalen Hurts, the 2021 Eagles, and a first-round edge, wide receiver, and cornerback. Either scenario looks pretty darn good on paper.

9. San Francisco 49ers
Lots of folks will pencil in a big leap for the Niners when they move on from Jimmy Garoppolo to Trey Lance. That’s fine. Pencils have erasers.

8. Dallas Cowboys
Their 2022 season should be a repeat of 2021. Which was kind of a repeat of 2018. Which in many ways was a repeat of 2016. Which was something of a repeat of 2014…

7. Baltimore Ravens
Just a team with a former MVP at quarterback, a Super Bowl-winning coach, and one of the most stable front offices in the league. Sure, overlook them just because a comet struck team headquarters this year.

6. Los Angeles Chargers
Do you get the feeling that if we ran the 2021 simulation 10 trillion times that the Chargers would replace the Bengals (and Justin Herbert would be talked about the same way as Joe Burrow) in about seven trillion of them?

5. Green Bay Packers
Look for them to drop one spot every time His Moody Majesty opens his mouth until he delivers his August “I Have Grudgingly Returned” manifesto.

4. Cincinnati Bengals
The rare Super Bowl team that is likely to get better in the offseason. Because they have to.

3. Los Angeles Rams
Drop them three slots if Sean McVay retires and about seven if Aaron Donald retires.

2. Buffalo Bills
They’re not so much a player away from the Super Bowl as one lucky break away from the Super Bowl. Like, you know, a coin flip or something. (Ducks.)

1. Kansas City Chiefs
You can disagree, but you cannot act surprised.