Oklahoma, Texas A&M Look To Avoid Upsets in…

NCAA Week 11 – With just a few short weeks until the selection of the four playoff teams, the College Football Playoff rankings have become crucial as contenders jostle for position. Nine of the 10 teams in the Power 5 with zero or one losses are in the top 10, with undefeated Cincinnati also joining the fray. While there’s an outside chance that a team could soar from outside that group to the playoff—perhaps if No. 11 Texas A&M wins out and upsets Georgia for an SEC title, or if No. 12 Wake Forest wins out in convincing fashion—the main postseason frontrunners are lined up neatly at the top.

The SEC leads the way behind an unusually dominant No. 1 Georgia and an unusually troubled No. 2 Alabama, but the Big Ten sends the largest contingent, with No. 4 Ohio State, No. 6 Michigan, and No. 7 Michigan State all in play if they can maintain one-loss records. Rivals No. 8 Oklahoma and No. 10 Oklahoma State have mirror-image schedules, with the Sooners now facing down their toughest stretch while the Cowboys cruise towards Bedlam. No. 3 Oregon and No. 5 Cincinnati are their conference’s sole representatives in the top 20, and independent No. 9 Notre Dame fills out the lineup. It’s a remarkably crowded assortment of teams: notably, this is the first Week 11 ranking with just one undefeated in the top four since 2016. That means there’s plenty of room for new names to pop up as high as No. 2, with every team except the Bulldogs looking susceptible to defeat.

The field is bound to narrow, though, and several games this week should help clarify who has a shot. Michigan will look for a key win over Penn State to establish themselves as a clear threat in the Big Ten East, while Ohio State hopes to avoid an upset by a dangerous Purdue team. Oklahoma enters their harrowing stretch run with a visit to 7-2 Baylor as Oklahoma State looks to shut down an opponent that has derailed their seasons in the past in TCU. Texas A&M will attempt to bolster their résumé and keep the pressure on Alabama with a showdown against Ole Miss, and Wake Forest attempts to keep the ACC’s unlikely playoff chances alive in their return to conference play. Some contenders are heavy favorites and others are fighting for their lives, but in all likelihood, one or two will fall this Saturday.

As the drama of the playoff chase rises further, we’ll check in with five of the top contenders as they try to hold off upset bids, then throw in a visit to the Mountain West for a decisive division duel. From the coasting Bulldogs to the long-shot Aggies and Demon Deacons, plenty of the playoff hopefuls are facing down critical tests in the final month of the season.

All times are listed as Eastern.

Michigan (-1.5) at Penn State—Saturday, 12 p.m. (ABC)

Nine weeks into the season, we still don’t know quite what Michigan is. The Wolverines dazzled against an out-of-conference slate whose strength has proven tough to nail down (Western Michigan, Washington, and NIU), but they have struggled with inconsistency against Big Ten foes. The offense fell asleep at the wheel during a second-half shutout at the hands of Rutgers, but the defense was able to pull a 20-13 win out of the fire. A fairly decisive 38-17 win over Wisconsin, which has since climbed its way into the rankings, righted the undefeated Wolverines’ course, but the defense fell off the map against Nebraska long enough to necessitate a late turnover for the victory. Still yet to play a team with a ranking at the time of the game, Michigan looked set to deliver a statement win over rival Michigan State, but a 16-point lead evaporated in the final 20 minutes, and it was the Spartans who emerged from the fray with their perfect record intact (though only for one more week).

The missed opportunities and squandered playoff paths from the Michigan State game are emblematic of the Jim Harbaugh era, but the season isn’t over yet. The Wolverines are still 8-1, ranked No. 6 in the latest CFP top 25, and have at least two more chances to prove themselves against quality competition. For a team which has come so far, however, their résumé is still remarkably thin, which makes this meeting with Penn State particularly important. While the committee spurned the Nittany Lions in this week’s top 25, they noted that beating them is still a sign of quality, and for a team whose current best wins are Wisconsin and NIU, they’re a win worth taking.

Michigan does everything pretty well—generating offensive explosiveness aside—but their swarming second-level defense is the star of the show. Linebackers Josh Ross and Nikhai Hill-Green and nickelback Daxton Hill are the team’s leading tacklers, and their reliability makes the Wolverines’ defense one of the best in FBS. In addition to the obvious defensive numbers, Michigan also gains a significant edge by shortening opponents’ drives: their offense averages 5.97 plays per drive (29th), while their defense allows only 5.06 (22nd). And when you throw in a special teams unit that ranks third in FEI, Michigan gets a huge head start in field position, averaging an offensive start at their own 32 (ninth) and a defensive start at their opponent’s 26 (11th). That difference raises expected touchdown rate by over 10%, and on the whole, it’s good for a boost of about 0.2 points per drive—over two points per game from field position alone. Michigan’s short defensive series are a gift that keeps on giving.

Penn State extends drives well, averaging 5.95 plays apiece (33rd) and, critically, starts more of them than almost anybody else. The Nittany Lion’s 110 total drives rank 11th in the country, which puts them in the company of some offenses that … frankly, aren’t very good. Oklahoma State (116), Illinois (113), Iowa (111), New Mexico State (109), and Arizona (108) are among the worst offenders, and as a group, teams with at least 108 drives average 0.19 EPA per play, below the FBS average of 0.22. There are any number of explanations for these offensive woes, but in Penn State’s case, the primary problem is fairly obvious: their rushing attack has fallen off the face of the earth. Since their fateful loss to Iowa in early October, the Lions have played three games and have yet to top 100 rushing yards or 3.0 yards per carry. Against Ohio State, they averaged just 1.1 yards per carry, their lowest such mark in a game since 2017, and ran for just 33 yards, their worst performance since 2014.

While the rushing corps wasn’t exactly world-beating before its recent stretch, Penn State’s recent results—losses to Illinois and Ohio State, an escape from Maryland in which the Terrapins managed a fourth-quarter tie—reveal how much the offense has struggled without a dependable run game. Noah Cain, who was tabbed as the team’s primary running back in his return from injury this season, has underwhelmed, having rushed for over 50 yards just once this year. While secondary options such as Keyvone Lee and John Lovett have flashed potential, they haven’t appeared or produced consistently enough. Facing an opponent whose only loss came to a team with a 197-yard, five-touchdown rusher, Penn State will need more to topple the Wolverines. On the upside, the passing game is clicking under veteran quarterback Sean Clifford like never before, and as his health continues to improve, his dual-threat ability should come to the fore. If the Lions can successfully employ their solid passing attack, they might find a spark to inspire their run game in pursuit of an unlikely upset.

Watch for:

• Can Cade McNamara continue a solid run (8.9 yards per attempt, 4 TD, 1 INT in his last two games) against Penn State’s top-tier pass defense (third in EPA)?
• Will Blake Corum (778 yards, 6.0 yards per carry, 10 TD) be healthy enough to play and fill out the Michigan rushing tandem alongside Hassan Haskins (829 yards, 5.0 yards per carry, 11 TD)?
• Can Penn State disrupt a stout Michigan defensive line (1.8% sack rate, first in FBS) behind star defensive end Arnold Ebiketie (46 tackles, 13.5 tackles for loss, 6.5 sacks)?

FEI Outright Pick: Michigan by 5.3

Oklahoma (-6) at Baylor—Saturday, 12 p.m. (FOX)

On a surface level, Oklahoma’s offense looks just as good as ever. The Sooners are averaging 42.9 points per game, ranking fifth in the nation—right in line with their last two seasons (42.1 and sixth in 2019, 43.0 and sixth in 2020). But the road to Oklahoma’s offensive success has been bumpy, featuring their first games with 23 or fewer points since 2016, a remarkable quarterback switch, and a scoreless first half against 1-8 Kansas. While the Sooners have scored at least 35 points in five straight games, inconsistency has marked their performance this season. Against Texas, they sputtered behind Spencer Rattler, scoring just seven points with a pick and two punts in the first quarter. But with Rattler benched for backup Caleb Williams, the same offense came alive in the second half, flipping a 41-33 deficit into a 48-41 lead in just 15 seconds. A convincing 52-point showing followed against TCU, and the problem seemed solved … until the Sooners took over 40 minutes to score on the Jayhawks. The offense again rallied to score 28 points in the last 15 minutes and change, but the concerns were clear to see.

Baylor’s excellent defense will be the best Oklahoma has faced by a wide margin. Unlike Texas, which allows 7.8 more points per game in the second half than the first (128th), the Bears’ defense holds up well, allowing 0.5 fewer points (70th). And unlike Kansas, which allows an FBS-worst 46.4 points per game, Baylor is solid on the whole, surrendering only 22.2 points (32nd). It wouldn’t be impossible for the Sooners to claw their way back after a slow start, but it would certainly be more difficult. Putting in a full four quarters will be critical.

Establishing early offensive success shouldn’t be difficult for the Sooners—they rank ninth in rushing success rate and tenth in passing success rate. Their 67 scoring opportunities are tied for fourth in FBS and first in the Power 5, and their 5.21 points per opportunity lead the nation. Oklahoma puts in methodical drives like nobody else, but they struggle to deliver big plays to give their offense an extra gear. The Sooners rank 75th in overall explosiveness and 88th in passing explosiveness, easily the most apparent difference between this year’s offense and those of recent seasons. Unsurprisingly, this weakness was on full display against Nebraska and West Virginia; in those low-scoring debacles, Oklahoma totaled just four explosive plays on 132 plays from scrimmage (a rate of just over 3%). But this part of the Sooners’ attack has taken a significant step forward under Williams, as they have put up 23 explosive plays in their last three games (14%).

Baylor’s defense, while generally very good, has failed to limit explosiveness this season, allowing 1.29 EPA per successful play (122nd). But the Bears also have something that Williams’ recent opponents haven’t: a sound run defense. Texas ranks 92nd, TCU 117th, Kansas 130th, and Texas Tech 79th in rushing success rate allowed, but Baylor is all the way up at 11th. Explosiveness is still a problem in the run game—the Bears rank only 82nd in that stat—but on the whole, they can hold down the trenches fairly well, and a limited run game isn’t something Williams has really contended with yet. Kennedy Brooks (802 yards, 6.1 yards per carry, 9 TD) has been one of the best running backs in the nation and has created ridiculous amounts of extra yardage—rushing for 177 yards after contact against Texas alone, for example. He doesn’t get shut down often, but when he does, it has often opened the door to one of Oklahoma’s nail-biting escapes. Brooks’ lowest rushing total on the season (17 yards) came in that slugfest with West Virginia, and Nebraska (75 yards) and Kansas (79 yards) also prevented him from dominating on the ground.

Still, that’s easier said than done. Brooks can seriously punish a defense that struggles to contain him up front, and Oklahoma’s line is only getting better. To stifle the Sooners’ offense, the Bears will need to close off explosiveness from a pair of stars who can put an opponent on their back foot with just one play. Both Oklahoma’s offense and Baylor’s defense, while imperfect, are among the best in football, and they’re both set to take on their toughest matchup yet with Big 12 title hopes at stake.

Watch for:

• Can Baylor running backs Abram Smith (1055 yards, 7.3 yards per carry, 11 TD) and Trestan Ebner (601 yards, 6.0 yards per carry, 1 TD) beat a solid Oklahoma run defense?
• Will the Bears’ offensive line be able to hold off the pass rush of Nik Bonitto, Isaiah Thomas, and Perrion Winfrey (combined: 74 tackles, 23.5 tackles for loss, 14 sacks)?
• What can the Baylor secondary do about big-play threat Marvin Mims (605 yards, 23.3 yards per catch, 4 TD) without loosening coverage overall?

FEI Outright Pick: Baylor by 0.9

Georgia (-20) at Tennessee—Saturday, 3:30 p.m. (CBS)

By some metrics, Tennessee provides the most impressive test Georgia’s defense has faced this season. The Volunteers are averaging 38.2 points per game, making them one of only two teams to rise from below 25 points per game last year to over 35 this year. By comparison, Georgia hasn’t faced a scoring offense ranked higher than 36th—but those numbers are deceiving, on account of how ridiculously good the Bulldogs’ defense has been. Without their dismal efforts against that unit, Arkansas would rise from 36th to 17th in scoring offense, Missouri from 44th to 26th, Auburn from 47th to 27th, and Florida from 56th to 38th. While Tennessee’s offense has impressed, they wouldn’t the first to have their wings clipped by the Bulldogs.

While the Volunteers’ advantage of pure strength is something of a mirage, they do pose a challenge Georgia hasn’t faced yet. Each of the Bulldogs’ last five opponents sits near or above the FBS average in time of possession: Arkansas 67th, Auburn 81st, Kentucky 15th, Florida 41st, Missouri 68th. But Tennessee ranks dead-last in that stat, holding the ball for just under 24 minutes per game. That’s a product of several things—including a defense that allows the fourth-most plays per drive and an offense that has found a groove in the passing game—but the most obvious cause is John Heupel’s tempo offense, similar to the one he employed at UCF. The Volunteers’ hurry-up ability was on full display last week as they held the ball for a staggeringly low 13:52, yet scored 45 points in a narrow victory over Kentucky.

It remains to be seen if Georgia’s defense can be genuinely challenged—they have only allowed five touchdowns and 59 points across nine games. (That’s fewer points than their offense scored against just Vanderbilt, for reference.) But if one of the greatest units of all time can be said to have a weakness, it would be in explosive plays. The Bulldogs’ defense ranks first in overall EPA, ninth in rushing EPA, and first in passing EPA, as well as first in success rate, second in rushing success rate, and first in passing success rate. But explosiveness is a different matter: Georgia allows 1.14 EPA per successful play (52nd), 0.91 per successful rush (30th), and 1.35 per successful pass (63rd). Some of that has to do with sample size, considering the Bulldogs have only faced 104 successful plays outside garbage time, but it’s the closest thing to a problem they have.

Whether the Volunteers can make that matter will largely rest on the passing game. Virginia Tech transfer Hendon Hooker has been a massive improvement over original starter Joe Milton, but it remains to be seen if his excellent performance against Kentucky was an outlier or a sign of more big plays to come. Where Tennessee has generated the most reliable highlights, however, is on the ground. Jabari Small and Tiyon Evans have swapped the starting role back and forth due to injuries and performance, but both were knocked out of the game against the Wildcats, which may have led to Hooker’s showstopping night. Heupel has discussed their potential returns with cautious optimism, but it’s uncertain how much the Volunteers can lean on a generally-solid run game.

That could put the weight of the game on Hooker’s shoulders against the Georgia secondary, hardly an enviable position. As mentioned before, the Bulldogs lead the nation in opponent EPA per pass (-0.13) and passing success rate allowed (26.0%) behind a legion of excellent defensive backs, from Lewis Cine (40 tackles, six pass breakups) to Christopher Smith (17 tackles, two interceptions). There’s no doubt in this case: this group will be Hooker’s strongest opponent to date. With Georgia facing the last threat to its hopes of an undefeated regular season, the Volunteers will hope to overcome a historic defense and give their rival a run for their money.

Watch for:

• If Tennessee’s offense is able to keep Georgia at arm’s length, can Stetson Bennett (11.8 yards per attempt, 14 TD, 4 INT) continue to impress?
• How much will the Bulldogs lean on their prodigious rushing room, with five different players having taken at least 30 carries this season?
• Can the Volunteers win the line of scrimmage for a potentially-lacking rushing attack against a towering Georgia defensive line?

FEI Outright Pick: Georgia by 20.2

Texas A&M (-2.5) at Ole Miss—Saturday, 7 p.m. (ESPN)

About 800 miles southwest of Athens, the second-best scoring defense in the nation is hitting its stride in the final stretch of a tough SEC slate. Texas A&M may have struggled early in the conference schedule—allowing 20 points to Arkansas, then 26 to Mississippi State, and finally 38 in a landmark win over Alabama—but Mike Elko’s unit retooled against middling Missouri and South Carolina teams, and it produced one of the finest defensive efforts of the season against Auburn, holding the Tigers to a season-low three points. That critical win lifted the Aggies to 4-2 in the conference, and if they win out and there’s an upset in the Iron Bowl, it’d be enough to punch their ticket to Atlanta for the conference title game.

Texas A&M isn’t home-free yet, though. Aside from that decisive rivalry showdown between Alabama and Auburn, the Aggies will also have to dispatch a pair of difficult SEC West foes. A resurgent LSU awaits at the end of the regular season, but the biggest obstacle to Texas A&M’s postseason aspirations is right before them. Ole Miss is also 7-2 and 4-2 in the SEC, and while earlier losses have effectively doomed their title shot, they still have plenty to play for. Their acclaimed offense has scored at least 20 points in every game, ranking fourth in EPA per play and fifth in explosiveness, and they could be in position to make a New Year’s Six bowl for the first time since the tenure of Hugh Freeze (whose Liberty Flames just lost to Texas A&M 27-14).

As good as the Rebels’ offense has been, though, it has gone concerningly quiet as their recent games have progressed. Ole Miss managed just a field goal apiece against Auburn and Liberty in the second half, which let the Tigers pull away to win by 11 and could have let the Flames come back to pull an upset. The Rebels haven’t scored over 10 points in a second half since a back-and-forth 52-51 win over Arkansas more than a month ago. Matt Corral hasn’t been bad, but he averaged only 7.9 yards per attempt with a touchdown and an interception against LSU and Auburn, and a return to form against Liberty (12 yards per attempt, one touchdown) was accompanied by a season-low six rushes due to a lingering injury from the Auburn loss. The rushing attack, meanwhile, has been merely excellent rather than transcendent, averaging 211 yards per game in the last month compared to 260 before (305 outside of the Alabama game). Jerrion Ealy delivered a highlight-reel 70-yard touchdown run in the first minute against the Flames, but across the rest of the game, Ole Miss gained just 72 yards and four first downs on the ground.

Ole Miss evidently has the talent to reach greater offensive heights, but the individual pieces just aren’t clicking consistently. But if there’s a mismatch when the Rebels have the ball, perhaps they can create another when the Aggies take over. The Ole Miss defense has been difficult to pin down this season, but their recent games do seem to show improvement. Tennessee, LSU, Auburn, and Liberty averaged only 22 points on the Rebels, far better than their debacles against Alabama (42 points) and Arkansas (51). At the heart of this surprising rise have been a pair of pass-rushing stars: lineman Sam Williams (42 tackles, 12 tackles for loss, a school-record 10.5 sacks) and linebacker Chance Campbell (74 tackles, 10.5 tackles for loss, six sacks). The season numbers for the defense still aren’t pretty, but things are trending in the right direction, and this group has adeptly kept Ole Miss from disaster during some of their recent offensive droughts. The team’s nine sacks (the Rebels’ most since 2008) and three interceptions (their most in an FBS game since 2016) led the win over Liberty, and the defense could star again if it can get to Aggies quarterback Zach Calzada.

Texas A&M has subsisted on its strong rushing attack over the last three games, totaling 283, 290, and 219 yards on the ground compared to just 148, 187, and 192 through the air. Calzada hasn’t been disastrous—6.8 yards per attempt with four touchdowns and two interceptions in that span, which is acceptable enough—but unless he has another miracle game like the one against Alabama, the offense is up against a fairly low ceiling. The Aggies have a potential path to an SEC West title, a conference championship game, and maybe even a spot in the playoff, but they’ll need an offense firing on all cylinders to make it that far, and this meeting with a swiftly improving Ole Miss defense should set a benchmark for their final games.

Watch for:

• With Isaiah Spiller (873 yards) and Devon Achane (706 yards) taking 59 and 46 carries across their last three games, respectively, will the Aggies be able to use them frequently?
• How much weight will Ole Miss put on their top rushing trio after a fairly light game against Liberty (three carries for Henry Parrish, seven for Snoop Conner, 10 for Ealy)?
• Can the Rebels finish drives against a tenacious Texas A&M red zone defense (15th in scoring rate allowed)?

FEI Outright Pick: Ole Miss by 1.5

North Carolina State at Wake Forest (-2)—Saturday, 7:30 p.m. (ACCN)

Wake Forest’s remarkable rise to the top of the ACC—somewhat diminished after a shootout loss to North Carolina last week—has unfortunately led to underappreciation of some other unlikely leaders in the conference. With preseason favorites Clemson (6-3), North Carolina (5-5), and Miami (5-4) all behind the eight ball, an unlikely quartet have taken the top spots in each division. Over in the Coastal, Pitt and Virginia have some of the best offenses in football, which will face off in a must-watch duel next week. The Demon Deacons have been another high-scoring surprise, but their competition in the Atlantic is an exception. North Carolina State is quietly 7-2 and has won six of its last seven, all behind a defense allowing just 16 points per game (sixth in FBS).

It’s uncertain how long the Tigers will stay down, though, which adds another layer of stakes onto this pivotal in-state showdown. It has been over a decade since a team aside from Clemson and Florida State managed to win the division, and there’s no telling how long the title could be out of reach if Dabo Swinney’s squad recovers after this season. For two teams with championship droughts dating to 2006 (Wake Forest) and 1979 (North Carolina State), this could be a once-in-a-generation opportunity for glory. That’s not something to be taken lightly at programs that have historically struggled to gain the spotlight.

The Wolfpack have made it to this point by employing a fantastic shutdown defense. Already starting the average drive with 77 yards to go (the best field position of any defense in FBS), North Carolina State forces short drives by allowing a mere 30.4% success rate, third-lowest in the nation. The Wolfpack allow opponents to convert just 27.3% of third downs (third) and gain just 35.7% of available yards (ninth). When the game plan works, it works to perfection, as it did in a 27-21 win over Clemson earlier this year. In that game, North Carolina State allowed the Tigers to create first downs on just five of their 37 early downs, and on 25 passing downs, they allowed just seven successful plays. The Wolfpack consistently put their opponent behind the sticks and capitalized, and the result was a low-scoring victory that now carries immense weight, with North Carolina State sitting at 4-1 in the ACC—just between 5-0 Wake Forest and 5-2 Clemson.

But few teams thrive when behind schedule like the Demon Deacons. When facing passing downs, as they do on 28% of plays, Wake Forest averages 0.59 EPA per play (eighth) and a 36.4% success rate (fifth). With the rock-solid Sam Hartman (9.5 yards per attempt, 27 TD, 5 INT, 4.6 yards per carry) at the helm, the Deacons convert 51.6% of third downs (fifth) and gain 66.4% of available yards (second). And once again, when that offense works, it delivers. In a hectic 70-56 win over Army, Wake Forest managed a 70% success rate on 10 passing downs, gained a preposterous 94% of available yards, and allowed a tiny 8% stop rate. Of course, the Black Knights put up numbers that were nearly as ridiculous, but the Deacons’ rough defense didn’t catch up with them—until last week, when it allowed 24 fourth-quarter points in that loss to North Carolina.

Something has to give when these elite-under-pressure units clash, but what? If North Carolina State is to win this particular battle, they’ll need to pressure Hartman, whose collective passing is the cornerstone of Wake Forest’s dynamic offense. The Deacons’ offensive line has only allowed front seven havoc on 6% of plays, the third-lowest in FBS, but the Wolfpack have one of the best defensive fronts in college football. Run-blocking (fourth in line yards per carry, second in power success rate) has been more of a strength than pass-rushing (86th in sack rate, 30th in havoc rate), but North Carolina State has a solid line that could give Wake Forest trouble, especially with their slow-moving offensive scheme that frequently puts Hartman in potential harm’s way.

As for Wake Forest, they’ll look for a mismatch in big plays. North Carolina State’s imposing defense is solid in all facets, but explosiveness is something of a weakness—they rank 60th overall and 70th in passing—and Hartman is talented enough to take advantage, though he hasn’t gunned for big gains very often. If the Deacons can keep moving the ball downfield on his superb third-down play, however, they’ll be set up to take bigger risks on early downs and potentially break the game open with some huge passes. Getting one over on either the Wake Forest offense or the North Carolina State defense is a tall task, but one of these teams will pull it off just enough to put themselves in the lead of the topsy-turvy ACC Atlantic chase.

Watch for:

• Can Wake Forest (2.1 takeaways per game, tied for sixth in FBS) get takeaways from the stalwart Wolfpack (0.6 turnovers lost per game, second in FBS)?
• Will the Deacons be able to neutralize North Carolina State’s field position behind punter Ivan Mora (43.4 yards per punt) and kick returner Ja’Sir Taylor (30.0 yards per return)?
• How often will Hartman go to top targets Jaquarii Roberson (848 yards, 17.0 yards per catch, 8 TD) and A.T. Perry (845 yards, 20.1 yards per catch, 10 TD)?

FEI Outright Pick: Wake Forest by 6.7

Nevada at San Diego State (-3)—Saturday, 10:30 p.m. (CBSSN)

Few divisions have produced as tangled a web as the West in the Mountain West, where Nevada and San Diego State are currently tied in first with 4-1 records. Both took their sole conference loss against Fresno State, but the Bulldogs’ losses to Hawaiʻi and Boise State have opened the door for either the Wolf Pack or the Aztecs to go on and win the division. The chase won’t be quite over after this week—if Nevada wins, they’ll need to navigate Air Force and Colorado State, while San Diego State would need to beat UNLV and Boise State—but this meeting should leave one team in the driver’s seat either way.

Nevada has been solid on both sides of the ball, but their offense will have the best competition, which makes quarterback Carson Strong and running back Tao Taua a key duo. Strong isn’t the most efficient quarterback—he’s only averaging 7.8 yards per attempt this year, and has surpassed 10.0 in a game just once—but you can’t argue with results, and with some 355 passing yards per game (plus 25 touchdowns to seven interceptions), he certainly has those. Against Fresno State, he set career-high marks in passing yards (476) and completion percentage (80.3%), and he’s easily capable of breaking off big plays, even against the Aztecs’ daunting defense. Only two teams in FBS have passed more than Nevada, and there’s no reason for them to stop now.

One of the benefits of that extreme Strong-centric style is the decreased workload on the run game, which has been awfully thin this year. Taua (527 yards, 5.2 yards per carry) has been solid, but secondary rusher Devonte Lee has slipped from 5.2 yards per carry last season to 2.8, and third-stringer Avery Morrow has barely seen any action at all. The Wolf Pack haven’t pressed this group into service often thanks to Strong’s high passing rate, which has kept the lack of depth from being as much of a problem as it might if they couldn’t pass so much. The offense is far from perfect, but it’s solid enough for a group leaning so heavily on one player.

On the other hand, that fact also makes it exceedingly clear what San Diego State will seek to do on defense. The Aztecs’ defense will look to disrupt Strong and most likely put forward a heavy pass rush against a fairly immobile quarterback and a weak offensive line. To take down Nevada, they’ll need to get the offense off script as often as possible, and like everything else, that starts with Strong. Cameron Thomas (47 tackles, 13 tackles for loss, 6.5 sacks), one of the best defensive players in the conference, will be at the heart of the front seven in that attack.

Depending how effective the Aztecs can be, Strong might be called upon to scramble out of the pocket, something the pro-style quarterback typically doesn’t attempt. While he excels at making plays under pressure, he still clearly prefers the stability that Nevada’s offensive line can afford. But there’s only so much the Wolf Pack can do, and Strong will at the very least need to avoid sacks, which have been a chronic problem this season—Nevada allows three per game, 106th in FBS. When the offense can move downfield reliably, the Wolf Pack have found success, but negative plays must be avoided at all costs. They doomed Nevada against Fresno State, when the Bulldogs racked up five sacks and 11 tackles for loss, and they could be the key for San Diego State as well.

Some of the best players in college football will face off in a momentous match, and whether the dynamic Aztecs or the explosive Wolf Pack come out on top, there are sure to be fireworks as two of the best teams in the Mountain West duke it out. With Nevada seeking their first-ever title in the MWC and San Diego State hoping to open Brady Hoke’s second stint on a high note, both will have to finish the season strong to claim their conference championship.

Watch for:

• After 24 carries for just 3.2 yards apiece against Hawaiʻi, will San Diego State give Greg Bell a less intense workload without many other rushing options?
• Can the Nevada secondary (1.4 interceptions per game, tied for third) score picks off of Lucas Johnson (5 TD, 3 INT) or Jordon Brookshire (2 TD, 1 INT)
• With Matt Araiza (51.9 yards per punt) in hot pursuit of the single-season record for yards per punt, how conservative will San Diego State be on fourth-down calls?

FEI Outright Pick: San Diego State by 2.6

FEI Picks: Week 11

FEI’s picks ATS in Week 9: 1-5

FEI’s picks ATS in 2021: 27-33

Preston’s picks ATS in Week 9: 1-5

Preston’s picks ATS in 2021: 30-30