Matt Ryan Trade Hurts Both Falcons and Colts

NFL Offseason – The Matt Ryan era for the Atlanta Falcons is all over but the spending. In the aftermath of the organization’s pursuit of Deshaun Watson, the Falcons have traded Ryan to the Indianapolis Colts in exchange for a third-round pick in the 2022 draft, per multiple reports.  

The Falcons are expected to absorb a staggering $48-million dead cap hit after Ryan’s departure, which was hastened by the team’s very public attempt to acquire Watson. Ryan will replace Carson Wentz, who wore out his welcome in Indianapolis after one season and was traded to the Washington Commanders two weeks ago. The Cleveland Browns, of course, acquired Watson in exchange for three first round picks, some loose change and a heavily restructured $230-million contract on Friday.

So yeah: big, expensive, fascinatingly-regrettable decisions all around. But let’s focus on Ryan, the Colts and the Falcons.

Matt Ryan Trade: Impact on the Indianapolis Colts

Ryan, who turns 37 years old in May, ranked 21st in DVOA and 19th in DYAR last season while throwing for 3,968 yards (his lowest total since 2010) and 20 touchdowns (lowest since his rookie season in 2008). Ryan’s DVOA of -4.8% was the lowest of his career and only his second career season below league average. 

Ryan’s decline in 2021 was precipitated in large part by the departure of Julio Jones and the absence of Calvin Ridley for most of the season. The Falcons also faced the third-toughest defensive schedule in the NFL. That said, it takes rose-colored Dirty Bird sunglasses and some post 28-3 trauma to suggest that Ryan is not in decline. 

Colts head coach Frank Reich will likely dust off a version of the old Philip Rivers playbook for Ryan – who, like Rivers, cannot really move off his spot in the pocket anymore – and is likely hoping for Rivers-like results. Rivers threw for 4,169 yards and 24 touchdowns for the 11-5 Colts in 2020, finishing 12th in DVOA in his final NFL season. Ryan should be capable of one more year of similar numbers, if not a similar win-loss record: the Colts still have holes to fill at wide receiver and left tackle but no first-round pick and little cap space (thanks in large part to Wentz) to fill them with.

In other words, the Colts remain in the “Pricey Veteran of the Year” holding pattern they became trapped in when Andrew Luck retired. 

Matt Ryan trade: Impact on the Falcons

The Falcons will be carrying roughly $40 million in dead money cap charges for Ryan and Julio Jones this year and an additional $24 million or so next year. Josh Rosen, AJ McCarron and all-purpose guy Feleipe Franks are the only quarterbacks on the active roster. The third-round pick the Falcons received in return for Ryan was practically a tow-away fee. The Falcons spent years painting themselves into a corner by adding extensions and prorations to the back of Ryan’s contract while never drafting a potential successor, then set the room they were painting on fire by pursuing Watson. But at least Arthur Smith and Terry Fontenot are now mercifully free to begin rebuilding in earnest, starting with the likely selection of Liberty’s Malik Willis, Pitt’s Kenny Pickett or Cincinnati’s Desmond Ritter with the eighth pick in April’s draft, followed by a 2022 season of eating ramen while paying down the credit cards.

And while we roast the Falcons for … well, just being the Falcons, let’s not forget that Ryan was the greatest quarterback in franchise history. He led the Falcons to six playoff appearances and two NFC Championship games. Little of the blame for the Super Bowl LI collapse can be placed on him. Ryan deserved better than being cast as one of the jilted spouses in the Watson soap opera.

The Falcons needed a fresh start, but replacing Ryan won’t be easy.
 

Matt Ryan’s early KUBIAK projections @fboutsiders

On ATL: 559-4198-22.4-11.5 (20th QB)
On IND: 520-3823-21.4-10.4 (27th QB)

Ryan won’t have to carry a J.Taylor-led IND offense like he did ATL’s. And while that might be bad news for fantasy, it should improve his playoff odds.

— Scott Spratt (@Scott_Spratt) March 21, 2022