Los Angeles Rams Sign WR Allen Robinson

NFL Offseason – The Los Angeles Rams have bolstered their receiving corps, signing former Chicago wide receiver Allen Robinson to a three-year, $46.5 million contract that includes $30.7 million guaranteed. While neither the total value nor the APY of that deal is particularly notable, $30.7 million guaranteed would be the eighth most for any receiver in the league at the moment; we’ll have to wait and see exactly how the contract is structured to see just how much the Rams are planning on paying for Robinson.

Robinson has always been one of the trickier receivers to analyze. He has one season in the top 20 in DYAR or DVOA in his career, all the way back in 2015. He had just 18 DYAR and a -9.3% DVOA last season. Since he entered the league in 2014, he’s not in the top 15 in yards, receptions or touchdowns; his 7.5 yards per target and 58.3% catch rate are serviceable but nothing particularly noteworthy. Taken out of context, and Robinson’s a solid player, but nothing to write home too much about.

Then you realize his primary quarterbacks have been Blake Bortles, Mitch Trubisky, Nick Foles, Chase Daniel and Andy Dalton, and you realize that putting up the numbers he has over the course of his career has been a minor miracle. For most of his career, he’s leapt off of the tape – a nightmare to cover, always reliable, able to bail out terrible quarterback play with sure hands and better ball-tracking skills. It’s worth noting that 2021 was a significant down year for Robinson, but his past track record is good enough to make him arguably the best receiver to change teams this offseason.

He’ll play with the best quarterback in his career in Matthew Stafford, with the best offensive mind of his career in Sean McVay. The fit with the Rams is an interesting one. It’s not that wide receiver wasn’t a need for Los Angeles; it’s just a minor surprise that they made a big splash signing like this. They have a pair of receivers coming off of torn ACLs – Robert Woods and free agent Odell Beckham, who they reportedly are still interested in re-signing, even after the Robinson deal. Perhaps this signing is an indication that the Rams are worried about the health of those receivers going forward, and they need someone else in the lineup. Or maybe they saw all the money they weren’t going to spend on Von Miller, and decided going five wide with Robinson, Woods, Beckham, Cooper Kupp and Van Jefferson is absolutely terrifying. Either/or.

Allen Robinson Overall Impact: If Robinson rebounds from his off season, he’s at worst a top-15 receiver. Bringing him in gives Woods time to shake off the rust and Beckham to recover from his injuries; you could do much worse in September and October than having Allen Robinson and Cooper Kupp running routes. More weapons for Stafford’s big arm, as is the Rams’ want. And if the Rams opt not to go after Beckham going forward, Robinson slots very well into the role of X receiver without any fuss.

Allen Robinson Fantasy Impact: You would hope Robinson would do a little better than his 38-410-1 line from a year ago in McVay’s offense. He was WR12 in both 2019 and 2020, and that would seem to be the floor for his potential in 2022 with Stafford as his quarterback. Except, how many balls are there going to be to go around? Even if Beckham doesn’t re-sign, keeping volume up for Robinson, Kupp and Woods is going to be a challenge, and will likely ding their fantasy numbers at least a little bit.

Allen Robinson’s early KUBIAK projections @fboutsiders

70-884-6.0 (29th WR)

Robinson will have more teammate competition from Kupp and Woods in LA even if Beckham doesn’t re-sign. But Robinson should still enjoy better fantasy production in 2022 with Matthew Stafford as his QB.

— Scott Spratt (@Scott_Spratt) March 17, 2022