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NFL Week 16 – Week 16 is the heart of the fantasy playoffs. And while weather conditions are forecasted to be milder than usual so close to Christmas day at the various NFL venues, matchups are poised to play a major role for fantasy players this week. COVID continues to hit NFL teams hard, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see more players forced to sit and more games postponed until Monday or Tuesday. However it shakes out, check our weekly projections for frequent updates that will tell you how even backups turned starters can expect their venues, weather, and opponents to affect their fantasy potential.

The following tables feature the players with the best and worst matchups of the week. Each listed player shows a true-talent (TT) ranking that represents how I would rank him with a perfectly neutral game context. Then, that ranking is adjusted by adding the context of the venue (Ven)—home and road and dome and outside—the forecasted weather (Wea), and opponent tendencies (Opp). The line beneath those rankings shows how much those contextual factors move projected PPR fantasy points. That total (Tot) number gives you a comprehensive estimate of how many fantasy points the player will score this week more or less than his typical total.

You can see our full weekly projections with projected stats, matchup adjustments and fantasy points by subscribing to FO+.

Quarterbacks

Dak Prescott and Kyler Murray have suffered some poorly timed fantasy performances in the lead up to and start of the fantasy playoffs. Prescott has thrown for fewer than 250 yards and exactly one touchdown in three straight weeks, and Murray has just one touchdown versus three interceptions since he returned from a sprained ankle. But if you survived those letdowns, I would stick with those players. Prescott’s slump has coincided with a three-game road trip, and the Cowboys quarterback has averaged 7.0 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road in recent seasons, the third-biggest split among current starters and one that make sense for a quarterback who plays his home games in a dome stadium. Back home this week and playing a Washington defense ranked 27th in pass defense DVOA, Prescott seems likely to provide a vintage performance. I have him 11th at the position this week. Meanwhile, Murray has a similar home benefit. And while his opposing Colts are a top-10 overall defense by DVOA, they are a better matchup for a quarterback in fantasy than reality. That’s because their defense is dramatically better against the run (third in DVOA) than the pass (16th). Unsurprisingly then, the Colts cut run plays by 12% per game but increase passing touchdowns by 24% per attempt. All told, Murray jumps from eighth in true talent to fourth at the position this week.

Best DraftKings Values: Matt Ryan ($400 underpriced at $5,400), Justin Herbert ($200 underpriced at $7,200), Matthew Stafford ($100 underpriced at $6,700)

Best FanDuel Values: Dak Prescott ($400 underpriced at $7,400), Matt Ryan ($300 underpriced at $6,800), Justin Herbert ($200 underpriced at $8,400)

Perhaps lost in the disappointment of the Chargers’ loss to the Chiefs last Thursday night was Justin Herbert’s ascent to the No. 2 quarterback in fantasy scoring this season. He may still not have the name recognition of Patrick Mahomes or Tom Brady, but Herbert deserves similar consideration in fantasy and doesn’t quite have it this week with second-tier $7,200 and $8,400 salaries in DraftKings and FanDuel despite a plus matchup with the Texans in their dome in Houston. Keep riding Herbert until the daily platforms catch up.

Mac Jones and Josh Allen are set for their rematch just three weeks after the former’s Patriots won with three pass attempts. That extreme total will reasonably make one consider whether any member of the Patriots passing game deserves fantasy consideration. And while I attribute the degree of that radical game plan to sustained winds close to 30mph, I still wouldn’t expect passing fireworks in 41-degree temperatures and winds in the low teens in Foxboro this Sunday. The Bills and Patriots rank second and third in pass defense DVOA; they cut passing yards by 18% and 10% per attempt and passing touchdowns by 44% and 12% per attempt; and they increase interceptions by 62% and 95% per attempt, respectively. The matchup drops Jones to 31st at the position this week, ahead of only Zach Wilson. And while Allen does not fall from his typical No. 1 ranking that is buoyed by his rushing, he projects to lose 1.8 fantasy points because of the matchup and makes for less enticing DFS option because of it.

Worst DraftKings Values: Aaron Rodgers ($1,100 overpriced at $7,600), Baker Mayfield ($600 overpriced at $5,600), Davis Mills ($300 overpriced at $5,500)

Worst FanDuel Values: Aaron Rodgers ($400 overpriced at $8,300), Justin Fields ($300 overpriced at $7,000), Baker Mayfield ($200 overpriced at $6,700)

Aaron Rodgers and Baker Mayfield will face off on Christmas day—if their Packers and Browns can avoid another COVID crisis. And while both quarterbacks can be thankful that Green Bay has a mild forecast of 32 degrees and light wind, neither justifies his daily salaries in this spot. That’s more of a true talent concern for Mayfield, who has thrown for fewer than 250 yards in each of his seven games since he injured his shoulder, with just nine passing touchdowns in that span. For Rodgers, it’s more complicated. He is top-five in true talent, and the Browns are a neutral opponent as a small cutter of passing yards and small promoter of passing touchdowns and interceptions. But Rodgers doesn’t enjoy the same home benefits as most quarterbacks in fantasy. He has averaged just 0.2 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road in recent seasons. And with comparable fantasy scorers such as Kyler Murray and Matthew Stafford playing in domes this weekend, Rodgers suffers by not seeing the same boosts to his projected fantasy scoring. If you want to bet on Rodgers this weekend, I would stick to futures bets for MVP or for a Packers Super Bowl win.

Running Backs

Austin Ekeler is a top-five true talent running back. He would obviously be a bad player to lose for fantasy playoff games if COVID kept him sidelined this weekend. But the Chargers play a Texans team that ranks 27th in run defense DVOA, that increases run plays by 15% per game, and that increases rushing yards and touchdowns by 15% and 39% per attempt. It’s such a good matchup that fantasy players could trust backup Justin Jackson as an RB2 if Ekeler couldn’t go.

Best DraftKings Values: Jonathan Taylor ($2,300 underpriced at $8,800), Antonio Gibson ($2,100 underpriced at $5,900), Ronald Jones ($1,700 underpriced at $5,100)

Best FanDuel Values: Ronald Jones ($1,900 underpriced at $5,400), Antonio Gibson ($1,200 underpriced at $6,800), Devin Singletary ($1,000 underpriced at $5,800)

With Leonard Fournette already on injured reserve, there’s no uncertainty the Bucs will need a backup runner. And even thought the team added Le’Veon Bell to potentially complicate its backfield, Ronald Jones should have tremendous daily value at just $5,100 and $5,400 in DraftKings and FanDuel. Jones may have taken a back seat as Fournette developed into a capable receiving back, but Jones has never stopped being an efficient runner. His 63.4% rushing success rate ranks third-best of backs with 50 or more carries this season. Even if he catches just a few passes, Jones is primed for a big workload. He saw 19 or more touches in the four games Fournette missed in 2020.

Like the other members of this week’s worst matchup list, Devin Singletary has a top-20 true talent ranking. He has earned that with 10 and 23 touches the last two weeks and with season-high 82% and 93% snap shares while teammate and normal backfield committee member Zack Moss has been a healthy scratch. But the only game Moss has played in the last month was the Bills’ Week 13 game against the Patriots, their Week 16 opponent. And those Patriots rank sixth in run defense DVOA and cut rushing touchdown rate by 61%, the most in football. Singletary drops to 19th at the position even assuming Moss is out. Ideally, I would have a different back as my RB2. But even if I didn’t, I would make a backup plan in case the Bills decide to activate Moss for this specific matchup.

Worst DraftKings Values: Chuba Hubbard ($1,000 overpriced at $5,400), Rashaad Penny ($600 overpriced at $5,500), Ezekiel Elliott ($600 overpriced at $7,200)

Worst FanDuel Values: Darrell Henderson ($900 overpriced at $6,900), Najee Harris ($900 overpriced at $8,400), James Conner ($400 overpriced at $7,100)

Darrell Henderson and Rashaad Penny were two of the biggest running back disappointments of Week 15. But since they played each other on Tuesday after a COVID postponement, their daily prices this week fail to capture an increasing pessimism. Henderson seems to have lost his starting job to Sony Michel, who out-touched him 20 to eight on Tuesday. And while Penny maintained his new starter role with a 57.9% carry share that was 16th-highest at the position last week, he performed predictably worse with a flip from a plus rushing matchup against the Texans in his Week 14 breakout to a minus one against the Rams in Week 15. This week’s Bears opponent is more neutral. They rank 22nd in run defense DVOA and increase run plays by 9% per game. But they also cut rushing touchdown rate by 23%, and the Seahawks could crowd their backfield with Alex Collins and Travis Homer poised to return from their COVID absences. All told, I rank Penny 38th at the position this week. But he’s priced in the top 30 in both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Wide Receivers

Russell Gage and Amon-Ra St. Brown may surprise you as members of my true-talent top 20 wide receivers. But the former player ranks ninth at the position with a 26.5% target share since Calvin Ridley stepped away from the team in Week 8. And the latter ranks fourth at the position with a 34.3% target share the last three weeks, a timing that coincides with star tight end T.J. Hockenson’s season-ending thumb injury. I’m trusting both players even in my fantasy playoffs, and I feel even better about them facing each other’s underwhelming defense. The Lions and Falcons rank 26th and 30th in pass defense DVOA, the former is a top-six booster of No. 1 and slot receiver yards by 39% and 11% per target, and the latter is a top-11 booster of No. 1 and slot receiver touchdowns by 20% and 26% per target.

Best DraftKings Values: Laquon Treadwell ($1,100 underpriced at $3,500), Antonio Brown ($1,000 underpriced at $4,900), Gabriel Davis ($600 underpriced at $4,700)

Best FanDuel Values: Gabriel Davis ($1,000 underpriced at $5,300), A.J. Green ($500 underpriced at $5,900), Laquon Treadwell ($500 underpriced at $5,300)

Josh Allen threw 30 pass attempts in the Week 13 windstorm. But the Patriots still rank third in pass defense DVOA and may boast the best secondary in the sport. I cannot claim this is a good matchup for Gabriel Davis. But his likely workload increase and previous history of production with extra targets has him among my favorite wide receiver DFS values in any case. Emmanuel Sanders returned to practice this week but remains an uncertainty for Sunday with a knee injury. And Cole Beasley will miss the game after testing positive for COVID. Davis should be Allen’s No. 3 receiver this week at the very least. And despite a normal non-starting role, Davis has led all receivers with 50 or more targets with 12.0 touchdowns and 9.9 expected touchdowns per 100 targets since he entered the league in 2020. Davis projects for the biggest loss at his position of 1.0 PPR points with his matchup this week. But assuming Sanders and Beasley are both out, he clings to a top 30 ranking and maintains standout daily value at just $4,700 and $5,300 in DraftKings and FanDuel.

DJ Moore hasn’t suffered the decline in targets I feared when the run-focused Cam Newton took over as the Panthers quarterback. Moore has 10, 10, and 11 targets the last three weeks and ranks ninth at the position with 9.5 targets per game since Newton’s first start in Week 11. That justifies a No. 17 true-talent ranking, but Moore falls from there for matchup concerns even before considerations that his team could try another unpromising quarterback platoon with the now-healthy Sam Darnold. The Buccaneers are not the same defensive behemoth they were in 2020, but they still rank fifth in pass defense DVOA even with their injuries in the secondary. And they cut No. 1 receiver yards and touchdowns by 18% and 14% per target. I still have Moore as a back-end WR2 ranked 20th at the position this week. But you may find better options such as Russell Gage and Amon-Ra St. Brown on your waiver wires.

Worst DraftKings Values: Terry McLaurin ($1,400 overpriced at $6,500), DeVonta Smith ($1,200 overpriced at $6,000), Darnell Mooney ($1,100 overpriced at $5,400)

Worst FanDuel Values: Terry McLaurin ($800 overpriced at $7,000), Darnell Mooney ($600 overpriced at $6,100), Donovan Peoples-Jones ($500 overpriced at $5,800)

Terry McLaurin may owe his Week 14 Cowboys blanking to a concussion that limited him to a 49% snap share. But even as he has played unencumbered in Weeks 12, 13, and 15, McLaurin has produced just nine total catches and 124 total yards. Washington’s pass offense has hit a wall. And even assuming that normal starter Taylor Heinicke can play after he cleared the COVID list on Thursday, McLaurin faces a difficult matchup in a Cowboys defense that ranks first in pass defense DVOA and that cuts No. 1 receiver yards and touchdowns by 26% and 44% per target. McLaurin is a special talent, but his circumstances do not justify his top 20 DFS salaries this week.

Tight Ends

Evan Engram has been remarkably consistent with between four and six targets in all but one game this season. But it’s interesting to note that his Week 7 outburst with eight targets came when his three receiver teammates Sterling Shepard, Kenny Golladay, and Kadarius Toney were sidelined. Golladay will play in Week 16, but Shepard is done for the season with a torn Achilles, and Toney remains a question mark after missing the last month with quad and oblique injuries and then COVID. If Engram ends up a top-two Giants target by default, he could threaten TE1 value even with the team’s uncertainty at quarterback. His division-rival Eagles may be the best opponent for tight ends in fantasy. They increase tight end yards and touchdowns by 10% and 67% per target, and they are one of just three teams to allow double-digit tight end touchdowns this season.

Best DraftKings Values: James O’Shaughnessy ($600 underpriced at $3,200), Evan Engram ($500 underpriced at $3,400), Ricky Seals-Jones ($300 underpriced at $3,200)

Best FanDuel Values: Pharaoh Brown ($500 underpriced at $4,400), Evan Engram ($300 underpriced at $5,000), Ricky Seals-Jones ($100 underpriced at $5,000)

James O’Shaughnessy is another conditional option at the position. Since his return in Week 12, the veteran tight end has seen a 14.6% target share that ranks 19th at the position and makes him a similar underrated TE2 option to his seasonal predecessor Dan Arnold. The complication is that Arnold came off of injured reserve this week, and the Jaguars now have the option to activate him in any of their next three games. Watch for the final injury reports on Sunday, but if Arnold remains out, the O’Shaughnessy is a compelling daily play at just $3,200 in DraftKings.

Hunter Henry may seem impossible to bench a week after he scored two touchdowns and raised his season touchdown total to nine, the most at his position. But consider how matchups may have influenced Henry last week. The Colts are a 16% increaser of tight end touchdown rate and brought the Patriots to a dome, where players at the position tend to increase their touchdown rates by 3% even on the road. Henry won’t have those same benefits this week at home and facing a Bills defense that cuts tight end touchdowns by 27% per target. It doesn’t disqualify him as a fantasy option, but Henry drops from 14th in true talent to 16th this week at the position. I might reserve him for two-tight end leagues.

Worst DraftKings Values: Mike Gesicki ($1,400 overpriced at $5,400), Hunter Henry ($1,000 overpriced at $4,700), Foster Moreau ($800 overpriced at $3,600)

Worst FanDuel Values: Foster Moreau ($800 overpriced at $5,200), Hunter Henry ($700 overpriced at $6,000), Mike Gesicki ($500 overpriced at $5,900)

Mike Gesicki has a 19.1% target share that ranks him seventh among tight ends for the full season. But Gesicki seems likely to have benefited from alternating injuries and absences from top-two Dolphins receivers Jaylen Waddle and DeVante Parker. Those wideouts have played together just twice since Week 5, but they are poised to do so again this weekend after Waddle cleared the COVID list. Gesicki seems unlikely to lose the bulk of his typical target share, but even a subtle drop to the 5.5 targets I’m projecting makes him a poor option at his top-10 DFS prices. And that seems especially true this week facing a Saints defense that cuts tight end yard and touchdowns by 24% and 46% per target, both top-four in football.