Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson Face Off in the MVP…

(On an island … somewhere.)

CREEPY VOICE OVER INTERCOM: Greetings. You have all agreed to play the Most Valuable Player Award Squid Game. You will win untold riches and glory if you can win the simple children’s game called Hot Potato. Simply carry the trophy across the finish line and you win.

PATRICK MAHOMES: Sounds simple enough. Let me just pick this sucker up and … woah (pupils dilate). Who am I? What team do I play for?

CREEPY VOICE: Did we mention that we coated the trophy with a powerful psychotropic substance which causes instantaneous madness?

MAHOMES: I’m seeing five Travis Kelces and zero defensive backs. Let me just close my eyes and toss this sucker over my shoulder like a bride throwing her bouquet.

DAK PRESCOTT: Caught it! Now to … woah. Mike McCarthy’s coaching is starting to make sense. Time to run some really dumb plays on fourth-and-short, then panic as soon as we fall behind. But don’t worry: I WILL COME BACK FROM THIS!

DERRICK HENRY: Never send a quarterback to do a running back’s job. I’m immune to powerful drugs. And curses. Just (Achilles tendon snaps) gotta keep (ACL snaps) pushing toward the finish line (timing belt snaps).

TOM BRADY: This challenge clearly calls for teamwork. Team: do work.

THE BUCCANEERS ROSTER: (passing the trophy along a line) All we own, we owwwweeee Tom.

BRADY: Excellent! All we have to do is get past the Saints…

DREW BREES: Hi. Retirement is fun. What do you think of my hair implants?

BRADY: No! I cannot bear to come face-to-face with my mortality! Drop the trophy! Drop the trophy!

JOSH ALLEN: I got it! Groovy. I wanna do stupid stuff now.

BILLSMAFIA: Don’t worry Josh. We have formed a coalition to protect you. We smuggled grenades onto the island to blow up the social media mentions of anyone who claims you are having a bad year.

ALLEN: Derp derp derp. Sack. Interception. Regression to the mean.

BILLSMAFIA: It’s working! Josh’s MVP odds remain +350 no matter how terribly he plays! Keep betting your life savings on a lost cause, Bills fans!

ALLEN: (Sees a defender in a No. 41 jersey.) Hey look! It’s Other Josh Allen! There’s no harm in tossing the trophy to myself, right?

BILLSMAFIA: No!!!!!

MATTHEW STAFFORD: Yoink.

SEAN McVAY: You are I have an inseparable bond, Matthew. We’re practically a married couple, working together no matter what. Let me carry the trophy most of the way.

STAFFORD: But you chose me specifically because you didn’t want to be forced to carry the load. Let me throw ridiculous hero balls from my own end zone.

McVAY: That was a pick-six! Now you need me more than ever! Let me design an offense entirely out of empty-backfield sets that offers you no pass protection!

STAFFORD: That was another pick-six! We have been ironically lulled into working against each other! We’re pulling the trophy apart! Whoops!

(Trophy bounces at Lamar Jackson’s feet.)

Le’VEON BELL: When I was a much younger man, before my family was torn apart by greed, we won many games of Hot Potato. We simply needed to pool our resources around one flawed but compelling hero who has been held back by a system blind to his true gifts.

LAMAR JACKSON: Truss?

Le’VEON: Truss.

KYLER MURRAY: I don’t think Lamar’s gonna last long, and I will be there to scoop the trophy up once I am healthy. But say, has anyone seen Aaron Rodgers?

CREEPY VOICE: Aaron Rodgers was eliminated with extreme prejudice in our previous stage: Follow the Leader.

JUSTIN HERBERT: That does it. I am fed up with this game! I demand to know what nefarious individual is twisted enough to turn the NFL’s best players into a bunch of ineffectual knuckleheads who are plagued by mysterious injuries, ridiculous turnovers, and unnecessary behind-the-scenes dramas!

CREEPY VOICE: (Silence.)

HERBERT: This whole game smacks of one individual’s dark projection of his own staggering insecurities. I demand that you show yourself!

CREEPY VOICE: (Silence.)

HERBERT: What happened to you? Did you fall just short of this award once? Did your failure scar you? Worse, did someone else’s success scar you? Has your life tumbled into mediocrity and misery since? Am I telegraphing the punchline enough?

CREEPY VOICE: (Silence.)

(In a control room faraway, a shadowy figure removes his fencing mask.)

CARSON WENTZ: N’yah, ain’t I a stinker?

(Oh, and if Gridiron Heights comes out with a similar gag this week, remember: they learned from the best.)

Best. Cardinals. Team. Ever.

Chandler Jones may have broken the Cardinals’ official all-time sack record when he passed Freddie Joe Nunn with his 67th Cardinals sack on Sunday. But he did not break the franchise’s real record.

Curtis Greer recorded 69.5 sacks for the St. Louis Cardinals from 1980 through 1987. Unfortunately, 19 of those sacks are unofficial, because they occurred prior to 1982. Pro Football Reference now lists those sacks, which were mostly compiled by historians John Turney and Nick Webster. The Turney/Webster sack lists have been available for decades and have been trusted by those of us who dabble in football research for a long time. They should be thought of as official stats, and Jones should wear a Greer tee-shirt under his jersey when he passes Greer in a week or two.

Anyway. Jones’ rise through the Cardinals’ all-time defensive leaderboards got me thinking of where the 2021 Cardinals may rank among the best Cardinals teams of all time. Here are the top five Cardinals teams of since 1983, per DVOA. A longer list is just a click away for FO+ subscribers!

1) 2021 Cardinals: 34.3% DVOA (1)

2) 2015 Cardinals: 30.2% DVOA (2)

3) 1984 Cardinals: 16.9% DVOA (6)

4) 2009 Cardinals: 14.2% DVOA (10)

5) 2013 Cardinals: 12.6% DVOA (10)

You probably remember the 2015 Cardinals well, though not as well as you think: Carson Palmer, Bruce Arians, Larry Fitzgerald, Tyrann Matthieu, a 13-3 record, and a knee-capping by Cam Newton and the Panthers in the NFC Championship Game. Do you remember that Chris Johnson was their leading rusher? Dwight Freeney their leader in sacks? It was a delightful season, but not one that rings through the annals of history.

The 2013 Cardinals were a beta version of the Arians-Palmer team, but with Rashard Mendenhall as the leading rusher and John Abraham as the old sack guy. They went 10-6 but failed to reach the playoffs. When a team like that ranks fifth in nearly 40 years of history, your franchise has struggled a bit.

I remember the 1984 Cardinals well, because they were Eagles-killers and I was a middle schooler with nothing to do but think about football back then. Wide receiver Roy Green was one of the best players in the NFL in the mid-1980s. Quarterback Neil Lomax was the Derek Carr of the era, quietly producing efficient seasons that few folks cared about. Running back Ottis Anderson would go on to fame with the Bill Parcells Giants a few years later. Stump Mitchell, the Austin Ekeler of his day, now has a glorious beard and coaches the Browns running backs. Greer produced 14.5 sacks in 1984, while E.J. Junior was an All-Pro at linebacker. They were fun to watch if they weren’t beating your favorite team, but they finished just 9-7 because they shared a division with teams coached by Parcells, Joe Gibbs, and Tom Landry.

The 2009 Cardinals went 10-6 the year after they reached the Super Bowl. The 2008 Super Bowl team actually had a negative DVOA; as you may recall, they finished the season 9-7 and went 2-6 down the stretch — including a 47-7 snow loss to the Matt Cassel Patriots, one of the worst games in DVOA history — then got magma-hot in the playoffs.

Any serious list of the Best Cardinals Teams Ever should probably put the Kurt Warner-Fitzpatrick-Anquan Boldin Super Bowl team at or near the top, because taking the Steelers to the wall in the Super Bowl counts for more, from a historical significance standpoint, than cranking out a high DVOA rate. But again, the 2021 Cardinals don’t have to do all that much more to reach the summit of a mountain capped by a team that finished 9-7.

A few historic teams are worth noting. The 1974-through-1976 Cardinals would merit less than a footnote in NFL history if not for the fact that Don Coryell coached them. Those teams went a combined 31-11 but 0-2 in the playoffs. They finished 10th, fifth and third in offensive net yards with Coryell, quarterback Jim Hart, and 1970s standouts at the skill positions such as Mel Gray and Terry Metcalf, who may or may not be related somehow to DK Metcalf. Coryell’s influence on the NFL’s tactical history is undeniable. But none of these teams deserve consideration for the best in Cardinals history over the Super Bowl squad or the 2015 team.

Of course, there are the 1947 Chicago Cardinals, who won the NFL Championship, and the 1948 Cardinals, who finished 11-1 but lost the championship game to the Eagles in a Philly snowstorm. I would take the 1947-1948 teams more seriously if they boasted more historical greats than coach Jimmy Conzelman and all-purpose threat Charley Trippi. The 1925 Cardinals also allegedly won an NFL championship, but the current team probably would not lose to the Hammond Pros or Pottsville Maroons.

So what must the 2021 Cardinals do to earn the mantle of Greatest Cardinals Team Ever? Win the Super Bowl, obviously. Reaching the Super Bowl would also probably be sufficient. A 13- or 14-win season and a trip to the conference championship game would spur debate among those who might care to debate such things.

What the 2021 Cardinals must do, if they fail to win the Super Bowl, is find a way to sustain success. The best Cardinals teams burn brightly for a year or two, then fizzle. The Cardinals could really use a sustained run near the top of the standings like the ones the Packers, Seahawks, Steelers, and Ravens have enjoyed, a “Kyler Murray-Kliff Kingsbury Era” worthy of the name. Nothing like that has ever happened in the organization’s 100-year history.

It’s far too early to tell if that is destined to happen. But based on the 2021 season thus far, it would be a lot of fun to witness.

TebowMania: 10 Years After

Throughout November (and possibly beyond), Walkthrough will look back on what was happening when Tim Tebow took the NFL and nation by storm—and forced Football Outsiders to defend analytics against a tidal wave of magical thinking—10 years ago this week.

The read-option was totally new to the NFL back in 2011.

That’s hard to believe 10 years later, when everyone from Justin Fields to Daniel Jones to Josh Allen to Ryan Tannehill is expected to execute a designed running play now and then. But allowing a quarterback to do anything but run a sneak, a rare goal-line draw, or a naked bootleg was controversial in 2011. NFL wisdom still dictated that REAL quarterbacks operated strictly from the pocket and would shatter like porcelain swans if used as rushers. The NFL was also just coming out of the brief Wildcat fad: read-options were fine for backup quarterbacks or moonlighting running backs or cornerbacks, but not for the precious starter.

Cam Newton had some success with designed runs as a rookie in 2011, but you know how these things go: read-option tactics needed an Elvis Presley, not a Little Richard. Tim Tebow made designed runs acceptable for Middle America, or at least for the NFL’s coaching fraternity, which is full of the kind of men who fell asleep watching Green Acres on television, even in 2011.

Tebow completed 2-of-8 passes for 69 yards and one touchdown and went 9-43-1 rushing in a 17-10 victory over the Chiefs on November 13, 2011. The video highlights and our Audibles at the Line coverage illustrate just how glorious the performance that led to that stunning statline really was. The cutup also shows Tebow running quarterback power for a touchdown. The Audibles crew, like many commentators at the time, was still trying to catch up to the language of designed quarterback runs.

Aaron Schatz: Curious about this game. When people say that Tim Tebow is running “the option,” I assume that means read-option plays, where the quarterback sticks the ball in the belly of the back from the shotgun and then either gives it or pulls it out. Are they running any conventional speed option where the back and quarterback both go around the edge?

Mike Tanier: The option thing is our colleagues talking out their butts. Remind me to flesh this out later, but it is a mix of choice read-option plays, power runs, and a lot of scrambles.

Vince Verhei: I have seen at least one old school option pitch play. Tebow pitched it, and it gained 1 yard.

At halftime, Denver has four pass plays, all incomplete. They have 28 rushes for a 6.0-yard average. Six different runners have carried the ball, and each is averaging at least 4.0 yards a carry. Four of them have at least one 10-yard run. They’re also ahead 10-0, so they may not throw the ball at all in the second half.

Danny Tuccitto: Having a two-score lead at halftime is John Fox’s wildest dream. Over-under on number of Tebow passes in the second half: 6.5. Any takers?

Vince Verhei: I will absolutely take the under on that.

Tom Gower: 6.5? Up 10? I would have thought more like 3.5, but with a higher average since there’s a chance that if they go over, it’s because they have to throw.

Mike Tanier: I kept assuming I missed a complete pass by the Broncos. Glad I didn’t.

Vince Verhei: At the end of the third quarter, Tebow is now 1-of-7 for 13 yards. His leading receiver is somebody named Matt Willis.

This is a good time to remind everyone that John Fox once won a game with a quarterback who went 4-of-7 for 32 yards.

Ben Muth: Tebow plays awful for 50 minutes, waiting for the Chiefs to lower their defenses, and then he unleashes a strike to Eric Decker for a long touchdown. As long as the Broncos never play anyone good, I’m convinced he can make it as a starter in the NFL.

Danny Tuccitto: Let it be known that, with six minutes left, Tebow has thrown four passes in the second half. The under is looking pretty solid, but the over-under doesn’t seem to be as outlandish as initially perceived.

Vince Verhei: Tebow finishes with one of the more awesome statlines you’ll find: 2-of-8 passing, 69 yards, one touchdown … 102.6 rating.

Comparing him to some other quarterbacks today: Tony Romo had more touchdown passes (three) than Tebow had completions. However, Tebow had more incompletions than Romo (also three).

On the other hand, Michael Vick completed less than half his passes for 8 yards per completion, with a pair of interceptions, so I think Tebow’s safe from the bottom of Quick Reads.

Finally, remember that this is what Tebow looks like against Kansas City, the 22nd-ranked pass defense (by DVOA). On Thursday night he plays the Jets, No. 1 in pass defense DVOA. I. Cannot. Wait.

Mike Tanier: The Raiders game plan [from two weeks earlier] included a handful of simple read options: the play where Tebow either hands off inside to [Willis] McGahee or keeps it and runs off end. It is often called quarterback choice or quarterback read in the video games. There were not that many of them, but several were very effective, in part because Tebow runs well, in part because the Raiders were horribly undisciplined trying to stop it.

That said, many of Tebow’s rushing yards in that game came from scrambles, and they used many conventional run and pass plays. The story got warped into “the Broncos are running the option” by folks who only watched the highlights and looked at the stats.

This week’s game plan was more option-specific, with a lot of counters and some triple-option stuff. And of course, the effectiveness amounted to 17 points against a so-so defense.

Vince Verhei proved to be correct: when he wrote Quick Reads the next day, Tebow only merited a brief mention, not the coveted bottom spot in the feature:

Tebow’s 56-yard touchdown pass to Eric Decker was worth 43 DYAR. As a runner, he had plays of 10 and 19 yards, plus a 7-yard touchdown.

Tebow finished 14th in DYAR that week, which is remarkable: one deep pass and some productive runs pushed him ahead of Philip Rivers, Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco, Sam Bradford, and other quarterbacks who had garden-variety poor games. While we spent most of our Sunday afternoons hooting and laughing at Tebow’s exploits, DYAR and the novelty of Tebow’s game plans forced us to at least pause and consider the notion that the Broncos were on to something.

For Football Outsiders, that pause was brief. But much of the rest of the football world was itching to get swept up in a cultural phenomenon.

The real takeaway from the early stages of TebowMania was that designed quarterback runs could be a healthy supplement for an NFL offense. Soon Newton, Robert Griffin, Colin Kaepernick, and Russell Wilson would take that ball and run with it, so to speak, and Lamar Jackson would thrive in a highly evolved form of a read-option offense eight years later.

But in November, 2011, it was the messenger, not the message, that was about to attract all of the attention. And then some.