Jordan Love, Taysom Hill, and the GTM Backup QBs

Here at Football Outsiders, we like to say that there are three classifications of NFL starting quarterbacks:

• The quarterbacks a team wins because of: Tom Brady, the “immunized”-but-unvaccinated Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes when he’s not turning the Chiefs offense into a performance art installation.
   
• The quarterbacks a team can win with given a strong supporting cast: Kirk Cousins will echo throughout history as the exemplar of this type.
   
• The quarterbacks a team can win despite of if that team has some other outstanding qualities, a soft schedule, and/or good luck. This group is a churning mass of fading starters and scuffling prospects best exemplified right now by Sam Darnold.

Those classifications are such simple and handy shorthand, and so many contenders have been forced to turn to Jordan Love/Geno Smith/Trevor Siemian/Taysom Hill/Cooper Rush types in recent weeks, that Walkthrough is proud to unveil three all-new classifications of NFL backup quarterbacks:

• Get you through a month;
• Get you through a game;
• Get you under the cap.

A “get you through a month (GTM)” backup is more-or-less a Win Despite starter who lost his job. Andy Dalton is a GTM backup. So is Nick Foles. GTM backups have legitimate value as insurance policies for contenders or placeholders while rookie prospects develop; the fact that the Bears are hoarding two of them speaks volumes about their mismanagement, as if further volumes needed to be spoken.

Mitch Trubisky is a GTM backup: the Bills could clearly hover around .500 for a few weeks if he were thrust into the lineup and played at about his 2019-2020 levels. The Bears, after all, had a winning record under Trubisky for his entire career. There were some wacky trade-deadline rumors about Trubisky fetching a hefty price from some needy team such as Washington. It would make perfect sense for the Bills to demand a premium pick in exchange for someone who could get them through an Allen low ankle sprain or mallet finger. Paying such a premium, on the other hand, would be silly for any other team.

A recent first-round pick who has been slow-cooking on the bench is also best classified as a GTM backup unless there is evidence to the contrary. Therefore, Jordan Love belongs in this category. Losing Aaron Rodgers to COVID this week is obviously not ideal, but the Packers are not as screwed as, say, the Rams or Titans might be if they faced a similar situation.

Case Keenum got the Browns through a game in Week 7 and makes a fine example of a player hovering near the GTM/GTG border.

The “get you through a game (GTG)” category is vast. It includes most of the veteran backups for hire, some of whom deserved GTM status at the start of their extended tours of the league. It’s also the best category in which to place a mid-round pick in his first or second season. Tom Brady is backed up by two GTG quarterbacks: Blaine Gabbert (who slipped from GTM circa 2019) and Kyle Trask. Gabbert could scramble-and-screen his way to a scratch win if called upon, while Trask could imitate Mac Jones briefly given a custom game plan. Neither is Trubisky or Love.

Trevor Siemian is best thought of as a GTG quarterback at this point in his career: his last relevant experience before Week 8 came way back in 2017. Taysom Hill is also best thought of as a GTG backup, even though Sean Payton tried to make him a Win With starter and some readers may regard him as a punt returner/meme. Hill got the Saints through a month last year, but only because the Broncos started an undrafted rookie receiver at quarterback in one of those games and two of the others involved the Falcons.

It’s not clear whether two GTG backups such as Siemian and Taysom can be parlayed into one GTM backup or get a team very far in the playoff chase. The Saints will be a test case.

Geno Smith is an excellent example of why there’s an expiration date on backups. He left the Jets as a likely GTM quarterback, but years of inactivity aren’t kind to quarterbacks. Whatever experience Geno picked up in the quarterback room was more than counterbalanced by diminished athletic traits and lack of meaningful playing time/starter’s reps.

Jacoby Brissett, who thought he was signing with a contender in March, is another former GTM backup who has curdled to GTG status. Marcus Mariota will slide into the same category soon: he’s billed as a Win Despite or even Win With starter, but getting seriously injured on every 10th snap limits his usefulness a bit.

Chase Daniel, the Human Bitcoin, backs up Justin Herbert for the Chargers. Colt McCoy is Kyler Murray’s official backup. Both quarterbacks would limit their offenses so severely that scrambling third-stringers Easton Stick or Chris Streveler would probably be called upon as either Wildcats if Herbert or Murray were lost for too long. (Murray’s status for Week 9 was cloudy at press time). Under those circumstances, Taysom Hill starts to look pretty good.

Chad Henne got the Chiefs through about 22 perilous minutes in the 2021 playoffs and should never be asked for much more. If we are counting the Vikings among contenders (why not?), Kellen Mond best fits here.

A “Get you under the cap (GUC)” backup works cheaply, of course, though he’s not necessarily on a rookie contract. Any longtime backup with a minimal track record belongs here. Logan Woodside is a fine example. He’s Ryan Tannehill’s backup. We didn’t have to tell you that, right?

A GUC quarterback can get a team through a game or two, of course, but it takes some help from the opponent. Cooper Rush is a GUC backup who threw approximately one good pass on Sunday night. Mike White, on the other hand, may have proven his mettle as a GTG or GTM backup by leading the Jets to an upset of the Bengals. These categories are fluid and can change once a quarterback gets some real playing time.

Despite his quasi-success late last season, Rams backup John Wolford is a GUC quarterback. Ravens backup Tyler Huntley is also a GUC backup; injured Trace McSorley is weak-tea Mariotta. Bengals backup Brandon Allen straddles the GTG/GUC line. Brian Hoyer is essentially an assistant coach.

Carson Wentz can now only be backed up by GUC quarterbacks, for a variety of reasons.

There’s some wisdom in making a “get you through a month” quarterback an opening day starter while the paint dries on a top prospect. That said, there’s no reason for a rebuilding team to employ anyone but a GUC backup from the moment their young quarterback is ready until the rebuild is nearly complete and the team has become a serious contender in need of an insurance policy. The Jaguars were wise to trade away Gardner Minshew, a GTM backup/Win Despite starter. The Jets, on the other hand, were foolish to trade for Joe Flacco last week. Flacco was a Win With starter early in his career who spent years as a Win Despite starter, then dove quickly from GTM to GTG status once he left the Ravens.

When White was briefly injured on Sunday, Josh Johnson entered the game instead of Flacco. Johnson belongs to a fourth substrata of backup: the Veteran Free Agent Who Stays in Shape.

The 17-game season may make backup quarterbacks more important in the years to come. We may see more teams giving banged-up starters such as Dak Prescott a midseason week off against non-conference foes or weaklings, or on Thursday nights. Once cap coffers open up again in 2023, contenders may budget a little extra money for Trubisky types who can be used like long relievers who pitch the back ends of doubleheaders. Times may soon be good for backups who can get a playoff team through a month. For now, the Packers are just hoping to do what the Cowboys did on Sunday night, and the Saints just have to take things week by week.

Coming off the Bye: Las Vegas Raiders

Occasionally throughout the midseason, Walkthrough will spotlight a team coming out of its bye week. But you probably figured that out from reading the header.

The Raiders Story So Far: Between Jon Gruden’s October resignation and Henry Ruggs’ release in the wake of an early-week DUI accident which resulted in a death, it’s hard to be objective and analytical about the on-field Raiders right now. Fortunately, DVOA is here to tell us they rank 19th overall and in the middle of the pack in all three phases. The Raiders also had the 26th-hardest schedule in the NFL thus far and the 11th moving forward.

Factor in the absences of Gruden and Ruggs and the stage is set for the typical Raiders season: hot start, long slide in the second half. But their 5-2 record, with wins over the Ravens, Steelers, and Broncos, gives the Raiders much more margin for playoff-tiebreaker error than they had in seasons past.

What’s Going Right? We mentioned the schedule. What else?

• Derek Carr is having another quietly excellent season.
   
• The Raiders have produced 37 passing plays of 20-plus yards, second in the NFL only to the Buccaneers. Ruggs caught nine of those passes, and of course his deep speed created opportunities for others, so the Raiders may not be able to maintain this pace.
   
• The Raiders rank fifth in third-and-long DVOA, which tends to be rather volatile.
   
• The Raiders rank first in the NFL in defensive power success, allowing opponents to convert just 43% of short-yardage situations. Like their third-and-long success, this looks more like an outlier than a strength—the Raiders defense ranks 20th in adjusted line yards and 32nd in the red zone—but fourth-down stops helped tilt the Ravens and Broncos victories in the Raiders’ direction.
   
• The team had relatively good injury luck early in the season. Right guard (Richie Incognito, then Denzelle Good) has been the only sore spot on the offensive line. Most of the defensive injuries have struck a cornerback corps that wasn’t expected to be a team strength in the first place.
   
• Interim head coach Rich Bisaccia is probably just enjoying a new-boss bump, and the reality of losing one of the league’s most meticulous game-planners may soon sink in. But the Raiders could easily have gone in the other direction given the nature of Gruden’s resignation.

What’s Going Wrong? Hmmm…

Where They Stand in the Playoff Picture: Everything about the Raiders’ statistical profile screams “regression.” And that’s before we factor in Gruden and Ruggs, or their penchant for late-season fades. The Raiders have been getting by on splash plays, third-and-long conversions, high-leverage defensive stops, and a semi-soft schedule. With their top deep threat gone and an inconsistent defense, what they are doing is not sustainable.

Yet the Raiders are the current frontrunners to win the AFC West and have a 62.1% chance to reach the playoffs. They may have done just enough over the first two months of the season to coast into the postseason on fumes, especially with the Broncos ready to surrender and the Browns and Colts heading toward their own meltdowns.

What’s Next: The Raiders should climb to 6-2 on Sunday by beating a Giants team still struggling with the complexities of operating a headset. Then comes a Chiefs-Bengals-at Cowboys (on Thanksgiving) run. The Raiders just need to win one of those games to remain in the middle of the playoff picture.

Once the 2021 season is over, the Raiders must find a new head coach, and the fact that they now have very little to show for their recent drafts (especially in the early rounds) will cast a long shadow over their future. So a role as playoff spoilers/seat fillers this year may be as good as it gets.

Thursday Night Sportsbook: New York Jets (+11) at Indianapolis Colts

This game was on the boards at +14 on October 28, after the Zach Wilson injury but before the Colts Bomb Cyclone game, and obviously before the Colts and Titans got silly last week. The Jets would have been worth a play at that number, and folks who don’t mind a big hunk o’ risk in the name of a potential market advantage should always be looking a week down the road in search of overvalued teams or overreactions to injuries.

Walkthrough didn’t jump on the Jets +14 and isn’t touching this spread: the Mike White first-start bump has officially bumped, and the Jets followed up their last upset with a loss to the lowly Falcons, followed by humiliation at the hands of the Patriots. They’re likely to get obliterated in the trenches against the Colts.

On the flip side, if you trust a team with Carson Wentz at quarterback to cover a double-digit spread, that’s on you.

The Jets have been outscored 44-7 in first quarters, while the Colts out-score opponents 38-36 in first quarters. It’s not a powerful early-game trend, but the Colts did take advantage of Titans turnovers for 14 quick points on Sunday, and it typically takes a few series for Frank Reich’s game script to wear off and Wentz to get Wentzy. So Walkthrough is going Over 9.5 for the first-quarter total score, rooting for mayhem, then drifting away from this game when things get far too silly.