Is Chargers’ Justin Herbert “elite”? He is NOT…

Jim Harbaugh, who effusively praises Justin Herbert, said Herbert needs to “be better” last week. Perhaps the tough love was an attempt to spark a 0-3 team and a quarterback he recently predicted would be remembered as the greatest quarterback in NFL history. Or, maybe he really meant it. 

Either way, it hasn’t helped yet as the Chargers fell to 0-4 after a loss on Sunday in Seattle.

I realize the “elite” QB conversation is tired. Rightfully so — I’m not even really sure what qualifies as “elite”. I just recall it used to be an exhausting conversation with the likes of Joe Flacco back in his Ravens days, and it’s been passed on to quarterbacks like Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, and now maybe Justin Herbert.

Let’s shift the focus to something concrete. Is Justin Herbert a top 10 quarterback in the NFL going forward? This is not based on his current performance, which has obviously been poor during this 0-4 start. This is based on his entire body of work and where we think he’s headed.

It’s past time we take a hard look at his credentials. Going into the year, he was a consensus top-10 quarterback in the NFL, whether you asked CBS Sports’ NFL experts or polled NFL coaches, executives, and scouts. 

Four games can’t change that much, right? Well, we are constantly getting evaluated in “corporate America,” so we don’t really need an excuse to re-examine Herbert. In fact, this recent stretch motivated me to peel back more layers and dig deeper. 

He may be one of the most talented QBs in the NFL who has put up video game numbers in the past, BUT he’s never won a playoff game, his team is 0-4 this year and his resume is frankly average over the past five seasons. His resume is closer to Trevor Lawrence than a Matthew Stafford, Dak Prescott or Joe Burrow.

Here’s why Herbert is not a top 10 QB

The crux of my case here is built on the metric EPA per dropback. It’s the best advanced measure to value all of a quarterback’s production. It looks at how he impacts his team’s scoring chances on every play by moving the chains, avoiding negative plays and making big plays, all while considering the game situation, unlike passer rating. 

Herbert deservedly drew a ton of praise early in his career, as he is immensely talented and had the most passing yards through three seasons in NFL history. However, look at his production year by year.

Justin Herbert EPA per Dropback Ranks

He peaked in his first two seasons, and he’s been outside the top 10 in this efficiency rating ever since. 

He’s one of two qualified quarterbacks to rank outside the top 10 in each of the past five seasons, along with Geno Smith. Smith has been up and down in the last few years across his tenure with the Seahawks, Raiders, and now the Jets.

Let’s drill this down a little further. He’s one of two quarterbacks in the past 20 seasons with five straight seasons outside the top 10 in this metric after multiple seasons inside the top 10. The other is Jay Cutler. Not saying he is Cutler, although both were (are) uber-talented signal callers whose production tailed off.

Justin Herbert Career Ranks Among Top 30 Qualifiers

I don’t see how Herbert could be a top-10 quarterback anymore when he hasn’t played like one for five seasons, never won a playoff game and the Chargers are off to a disastrous start this year.

His career is very similar to Trevor Lawrence, another all-world talent with an up-and-down career. The only difference is that Lawrence was not a consensus top-10 quarterback entering the year.

Their traditional numbers are nearly identical over the last five years, which aligns with Herbert’s slight decline and Lawrence’s career, excluding his rookie year with Urban Meyer, which was an outlier.

Justin Herbert vs Trevor Lawrence: Past 5 Seasons 

The advanced metrics paint a similar picture, too. 

Justin Herbert vs Trevor Lawrence – NFL Ranks in Past 5 Seasons

If there’s a tiebreaker here, let’s not forget Herbert’s Chargers blew a 27-point playoff lead to Lawrence’s Jaguars. Perhaps Lawrence is the top 10 quarterback instead of Herbert.

Finally, eyeball this list. This could be the fifth straight season Herbert is not top 10 in EPA per dropback and fails to win a playoff game. 

If you look at the names (and their corresponding seasons on the list), how many do you think were still considered a top-10 QB during (or after) those runs? Maybe Eli Manning, based on his two Super Bowl MVPs, but in reality, he was not a top-10 QB, especially late in his career. Carson Palmer was not one across his Raiders and early Cardinals years. Russell Wilson was not across his final years with Seattle and tenure with the Broncos, Steelers and Giants. 

Ranked Outside Top 10 in EPA/Dropback + 0 Playoff Wins in 5 Straight Seasons Since 2000

Justin Herbert apologists would say this…

Of course, this case can’t be settled by numbers alone. The first thing the Justin Herbert supporter would say is “check the tape!” Yes, I get it, he has a lot of quality traits, including a rocket arm and some wheels. 

You could also say, he’s like Matthew Stafford in Detroit. Both had no playoff wins through 100 starts. Both had a GOAT in their division (Aaron Rodgers vs. Patrick Mahomes), and both had video game numbers early in their careers, such as a 5,000-yard season. 

There’s certainly been question marks about Herbert’s supporting cast, like there were with Stafford, who had no run game and no defense on the Lions. Nobody could win with that. Well, Herbert has never had a 1,000-yard rusher in his career. He’s had zero RB, WR or TE with an All-Pro selection during his tenure. He’s the most sacked quarterback in the NFL since he was drafted in 2020 (237 times), and he had no protection last year when Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater were hurt.

The traditional numbers are very similar when comparing Stafford and Herbert’s first 100 starts (Herbert makes his 100th on Sunday). Stafford was even throwing to Calvin Johnson.

Stafford vs Herbert First 100 Career Starts

So maybe it’s just a matter of the right pieces around Herbert (with the Chargers or elsewhere) so he can do what Stafford has done with the Rams. This is a very reasonable argument and one that could come to pass over time. 

I laid out what I felt was the important evidence. Now you can decide for yourself if Herbert still deserves top-10 quarterback status.

Until I see him turn into post-Lions Stafford 2.0, I’m trusting the evidence showing he has not only been outside the top 10 for a long time but has also wilted in the playoffs. If one were false, I could be convinced he’s still a top-10 guy, but both are true.

Right now, I’m comfortable ranking all these quarterbacks ahead of Herbert — Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Matthew Stafford, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Brock Purdy, Dak Prescott, Jared Goff, Jalen Hurts, Jordan Love and Drake Maye.