How the Rams can beat the 49ers

(Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports)

We begin with, of all things, a pop culture reference.

A recent discovery of mine, and something I have now begun forcing on friends and neighbors alike, is the show “For All Mankind,” streaming on Apple TV+. The show, which just finished airing its second season, is an alternative history that examines what things might have looked like if the United States and the U.S.S.R. were locked in a never-ending space race.

The finale of the second season, titled “The Grey,” has as an underpinning the idea that in space travel, sometimes there are not many black and white moments. There is a lot of grey involved, particularly when you are dealing with space shuttles with nuclear launch codes. Decisions are not clear-cut, and that can lead to some hesitation.

And now we transition to Jimmy Garoppolo.

As outlined in the companion piece, looking at how the 49ers can beat the Rams, one of Garoppolo’s strengths as a quarterback — and perhaps why he has an unblemished record against Los Angeles — is how quickly he makes reads and gets the football out of his hands. In his two games this year against the Rams, Garoppolo averaged 2.33 seconds from snap to throw, a blistering pace which neutralizes a strength of Los Angeles. Their pass rush.

Incumbent upon the Rams this weekend is to try and combat that, by forcing Garoppolo into the grey. Make him hesitate, or double-clutch, or feel the need to take an extra second in the pocket or work to a second or third read.

Take this play from their Week 18 meeting:

This is Kyle Shanahan’s Burner concept, a route combination off of play-action that sets up like the post/over combination that we see countless times each NFL weekend, but instead of the deep post route, Brandon Aiyuk runs a vertical route that works back towards the same side of the field as the over route from Deebo Samuel.

On this play, the Rams are ready. Safety Taylor Rapp drops underneath in buzz technique as Los Angeles runs a three-deep zone, but he recognizes the concept and matches Samuel’s over route, which is where Garoppolo wants to throw the ball. Then, with the cornerback and the safety bracketing Aiyuk, Garoppolo has to pull the football down, and is eventually sacked.

Take this interception from Week 4, against the Seattle Seahawks:

On this play, the Seahawks show pressure before the snap, putting safety Ugochukwu Amadi down in the box over the right tackle. But as the play begins, he drops into a deep half-field alignment, as Seattle rolls into an inverted Cover 2. Garoppolo opens to his right, perhaps expecting to throw quickly against man coverage, but the Seahawks have that curl/out combination covered. Garoppolo then resets to try and hit George Kittle on a backside dig, but never sees Quandre Diggs, dropping down into that pole runner alignment between the safeties. Diggs jumps the dig, Garoppolo throws it right to him, and Seattle has the football.

Another means of forcing Garoppolo into the grey? Rotating at the snap and changing Garoppolo’s pre-snap expectations. We saw that on the previous play, but defenses have traditionally been more successful forcing mistakes from Garoppolo rotating into single-high at the snap. On this interception against the Vikings, Minnesota shows a two-deep safety look before the play, but drop Harrison Smith into the robber role right at the s nap.

Garoppolo, despite opening to his left — where Smith is aligned before the snap — still manages to throw this right to the safety when he tries to hit the backside dig from Samuel:

On this play from late in San Francisco’s win over the Cincinnati Bengals, Garoppolo almost gives the game away. The game is tied and the 49ers have the football at midfield, with under a minute left. Cincinnati shows two-deep before the play, but right before the snap they rotate into single high. Garoppolo opens to his left, but not liking the look he tries to come backside to an in-breaking route from Aiyuk.

Jesse Bates III, the safety who dropped down at the snap, is lurking:

If the Rams succeed in getting Garoppolo into the grey, whether by matching routes early in the down or rotating the safeties to force him to read things out right after the snap, they can perhaps force him to hold onto the football a little bit longer, giving their guys up front a chance to get home.

Or, they could bait Garoppolo into a big mistake or two.