August 24, 2026

Cowboys, Buccaneers, Packers Close in on Top NFC…

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5 years ago 247 ProFootball
Cowboys, Buccaneers, Packers Close in on Top NFC...


NFL Week 14 – Each Sunday, the FO staff sends around emails about the games that each of us are watching. We share information about the games that the rest of the group might not be watching, ask questions, and keep everyone else informed about which games they might want to tune into (if they can).

On Monday, we compile a digest of those emails and produce this feature. By its nature, it can be disjointed and dissimilar to the other articles on the site.

While these emails are generally written with Audibles in mind, they do not represent a standard review of all the games each week. That means we aren’t going to cover every game, or every important play. We watch the games that we, as fans, are interested in watching, so your favorite team’s game might not be covered to your fullest desires or even at all. (If you are a Seahawks or Patriots fan, you are probably in luck; if you are a Lions fan, not so much.) We have no intention of adding new authors solely to cover every game on a given Sunday, nor will we watch a different game from the ones that we’re personally interested in watching just to ensure that Audibles covers every game.

Las Vegas Raiders 9 at Kansas City Chiefs 48

Aaron Schatz: Raiders take the kickoff and on their first play, Jarran Reed knocks it out of Josh Jacobs’ hands and Mike Hughes scoops and scores. 7-0 Kansas City after 17 seconds. Oh, and the Raiders mishandled the next kickoff and will start on their own 11.

Aaron Schatz: Patrick Mahomes completes a 44-yard pass to Mecole Hardman when Treyvon Mullen just comes off him deep … then a wheel route to Darrel Williams scores with a great seal block from Travis Kelce. Meanwhile, when the Raiders have the ball, their offensive line is getting killed by the Kansas City defensive front. Alex Leatherwood in particular looks bad today, having trouble not only with Chris Jones but also Travelle Wharton. 14-0 Chiefs.

Aaron Schatz: We’re now at 28-0. Chiefs pick off Derek Carr with no fault by him whatsoever; Dan Sorensen bumped into Foster Moreau, causing him to juggle the ball, and it went into the hands of Tyrann Mathieu without hitting the ground. Chiefs march back downfield easily and score on a 1-yard receiver screen to Josh Gordon, who has done basically nothing for them but today everybody gets to do something against the Raiders! There’s going to be a lot of “BOY OH BOY CHIEFS ARE BACK” talk after this one, but I think the Raiders may be a uniquely good matchup for the Chiefs, given their A) depth problems in the secondary, B) insistence on playing Cover-3, C) major weakness on the interior offensive line.

Bryan Knowles: To that point, Aaron, 47% of the points the Chiefs have scored in the last eight weeks have come against the Raiders (69 and counting against Las Vegas, 77 in their other six games)

Scott Spratt: I recognize that the NFL isn’t the NBA and it may be a fool’s errand to plan for specific playoff matchups that injuries and randomness would frequently derail. But the Raiders are in the Chiefs’ division. How was their offseason plan to trade away interior offensive linemen and hire Cover-3 enthusiast Gus Bradley as their defensive coordinator?

Aaron Schatz: Minorly in the Raiders’ defense, they were planning on having Richie Incognito at guard and he has been too hurt to play this year.

J.P. Acosta: So, the Raiders have completely imploded and the Chiefs are up 35-0 with a minute left in the first half. And the Chiefs have made it look really easy as well.

Scott Spratt: The Chiefs have allowed 17, seven, 14, nine, nine, and now nine points their last six games defensively.

Atlanta Falcons 29 at Carolina Panthers 21

Scott Spratt: The Panthers are off to a good start. They forced a three-and-out and then went 65 yards on nine plays for a touchdown on their opening drive. Either firing Joe Brady was the move for the team, or it just helps to face a Falcons team ranked last in adjusted sack rate and overall DVOA.

Scott Spratt: Cam Newton didn’t see Falcons linebacker Mycal Walker sitting on an Ameer Abdullah slant route, and so Walker undercut the pass, made the interception, and returned it 66 yards for a touchdown. The Falcons have flipped their early touchdown deficit and now lead the Panthers 14-7 halfway through the second quarter.

Bryan Knowles: I see P.J. Walker is in at quarterback, again, and didn’t see a note about a Cam Newton injury, so I assume that’s a benching. Firing Joe Brady does not seem to have helped.

Vince Verhei: Has Matt Rhule run out of scapegoats yet? Maybe he’ll fire Sir Purr next.

Scott Spratt: New Panthers offensive coordinator Jeff Nixon is doing something interesting this week, which is bringing backup quarterback P.J. Walker in, presumably as a package player. I guess it’s a bizarro Taysom Hill deal? The problem is Nixon just called a zone read that John Cominsky diagnosed and blew up before Walker could do anything. That play may be a better fit for Newton!

Scott Spratt: Everyone on Twitter is agreeing with Bryan that Cam Newton was benched as opposed to that being a drive-related strategy with Walker. Of course, Walker threw a horrifically bad jump-ball interception to end the drive, so who knows what the team is going to do at quarterback the rest of the way.

Bryan Knowles: Well, Cam’s back at quarterback now, so maybe the Panthers ARE playing fifth-dimensional chess, and doing it just about as well as Ian Nepomniachtchi.

Scott Spratt: Clearly, the Panthers are load managing Cam Newton. You just don’t get it, Bryan.

Vince Verhei: Maybe they can dig up Jake Delhomme or Steve Beuerlein to start next week.

Aaron Schatz: Theory on Twitter is that the Panthers put in Walker at the end of the half because he has been there all season and thus is more familiar with the two-minute offense.

Bryan Knowles: But, hey, the Panthers aren’t dead yet, despite all of our jokes. With Newton back in, the Panthers get some traction on the ground again. And after Cam carries it a couple times, the Panthers run a zone read, all the defense bites on the Newton keep, and Chuba Hubbard races 17 yards for the score to make things 17-14, Atlanta.

Bryan Knowles: I’m not sure even the Falcons can Falcon this one away, though I suppose I should learn never to say never. The Panthers’ second drive of the second half ended with Cam Newton fumbling the ball back to Atlanta at midfield, and from there, the Falcons mostly just run right at their gut—some Cordarrelle Patterson, sure, but also a healthy dose of Qadree Ollison, who is definitely someone who I remembered existing before this game. Hayden Hurst scores a touchdown, but the two-point attempt to make things a 14-point game fails, so Atlanta merely has a 26-14 lead. Nearly the entire fourth quarter to play, so it’s not over yet, but Carolina’s gotta get moving.

Scott Spratt: Down a pair of scores in the fourth quarter, Jeff Nixon has been appropriately aggressive on this Panthers drive. He went for a fourth-and-2, which Cam Newton converted with a quick pass to Robby Anderson. But this fourth-and-10 sums up the Panthers season pretty nicely. Cam Newton slipped on the dropback and fell. And before he had any chance to stand up, Dante Fowler was in the backfield and touching him down for a sack. The left side of the Panthers offensive line has been a problem, as usual.

Bryan Knowles: Falcons Falconing status: Ehhhh? Panthers failed on fourth down, but Ollison fumbles the ball right back to them, and P.J. Walker (back in now, because the Panthers definitely have a plan, per new offensive coordinator Dutch van der Linde) finds Robby Anderson for a touchdown. Down nine points, you have go for two at some point, and it looks like it’s going to be here … but a false start pushes them back, and they kick the PAT instead. 29-21 Falcons with 3:11 left.

Scott Spratt: Analyst Jonathan Vilma must not share your logic, Bryan, because he was destroying the Panthers for lining up for that two-point conversion. I wonder if he would have said the same thing if he were calling the Ravens game since the Ravens did the same thing.

Aaron Schatz: Remember: It is smarter to go for two first if you score a touchdown that puts you down nine. You need to have the most information early on. It was also smart for the Panthers to kick the extra point once a false start knocked them back 5 yards.

Scott Spratt: I suspect Vilma is falling into the trap that a lot of coaches historically have, which is to delay losing rather than increase their chances of winning.

Bryan Knowles: It’s also probably smart to cover Kyle Pitts on third-and-game if you’re the Panthers defense.

Aaron Schatz: According to Steven Ruiz, the man who had Pitts was tripped up by a teammate, so at least that’s an explanation. They didn’t actually leave him wide open.

Seattle Seahawks 33 at Houston Texans 13

Vince Verhei: Fifteen minutes into this one and what we have learned so far is that the Seahawks can blow coverages without Jamal Adams just as well they did with him. Davis Mills is currently 8-of-8 for 89 yards and a touchdown. That includes 6-for-6 on their first drive, which ended in a touchdown for Houston’s first points in 100-plus minutes of game time. Life has mostly been easy for Mills—it’s either short completions with lots of YAC or guys just wide open downfield. Brevin Jordan was so open on the touchdown catch that I’m not sure Seattle had 11 guys on the field.

Seahawks get a field goal on their first drive. Second drive, the clock to end the quarter is about to expire when they call timeout. Seems like any utter waste when they could have just let the quarter expire but I guess it worked—coming out of the timeout, Rashaad Penny goes off right tackle and zips into the end zone for a 32-yard touchdown that puts Seattle up 10-7.

Carl Yedor: If Seattle is going to make a run for the playoffs, they, uh, can’t afford to lose this one. They have gotten some pressure on Davis Mills to this point, but he did not throw his first incomplete pass until halfway through the second quarter. To Vince’s point from earlier, some of these have been checkdowns, but with more formidable opponents remaining on the schedule (such as the Rams and Cardinals), it’s not a great sign that the Texans have been able to move the ball quite effectively. 10-10 with six minutes to go in the first half.

Vince Verhei: This last Houston drive is a personal insult by both teams to football fans everywhere. Texans have a third-and-18 after a penalty. Seahawks play a soft coverage to give up a 12-yard gain that lets Houston try a 49-yard field goal. The kick is good, but Seattle is called for roughing the snapper, personal foul, 15 yards, first down. Texans appear to score a go-ahead touchdown on a pass to Brandin Cooks, but replay shows his knee was down and it’s first-and-goal at the 1. Then an illegal formation penalty moves them back 5 yards and sets up a fourth-and-goal at the 3. They line up to go for it, then call timeout … and then kick a field goal. You’re at the 3! If you want to kick it, just take the delay of game and save the timeout!

So many brain-dead mistakes. Looks like two teams that are both trying to shave points right now.

Scott Spratt: Ka’imi Fairbairn just drilled a 61-yard field goal as time expired in the first half. The Texans are looking frisky down just 16-13.

Vince Verhei: Just adding that the Seahawks have 16 points because they pinned Houston deep on a punt, then forced a three-and-out, and then Russell Wilson hit Tyler Lockett for a 55-yard touchdown on a play-action bomb. And then of course they played soft and said sure, have a field goal. They tend to play the end of the first half like it’s the end of the second.

Vince Verhei: Just updating this to say it’s now 19-13 at the end of the third and … I have nothin’. Seattle is technically still alive but this very much feels like two bad teams playing a meaningless December game.

Vince Verhei: Looks like Seattle has finally put this one away. Third-and-9, Wilson scrambles to his left and finds Tyler Locket down the sideline for a 20-yard gain. In the red zone, they try to get DK Metcalf a touchdown, but Houston holds him on one throw for a penalty, then Wilson’s pass is behind him on the next snap. On third down they throw short to Gerald Everett, and I fully expect him to fumble at the goal line again. But he just barely crosses the plane, Lockett adds a two-point conversion, and Seattle’s up 27-13 now.

Carl Yedor: After a lackluster showing in the first half, Seattle’s defense has picked it up substantially in the second. A Russell Wilson touchdown to Gerald Everett (he of the terrible, horrible, no-good, very-bad game a week ago) and subsequent two-point conversion pushed Seattle’s lead to 14 points. Seattle quickly forced a turnover on downs due to some strong coverage from Ugo Amadi in the slot, and then Rashaad Penny busted a long touchdown run for his second of the day. It’s now 33-13, and I think we can put this one to bed.

Dallas Cowboys 27 at Washington Football Team 20

Bryan Knowles: The headline coming into this game (or, at least the headline that didn’t involve the Cowboys bringing their own heated benches to Washington, out of fear the Football Team’s accommodations would be less than accommodating) was the banged-up Washington defensive line against the banged-up Dallas backfield. The starters on Washington’s line had about 200 combined career snaps coming into today, while the more explosive of the two Cowboys backs, Tony Pollard, is out with a foot injury. That hasn’t been a major factor yet, I suppose—Dallas isn’t exactly making hay on the ground, but Washington’s not getting much pressure on Prescott either, so call it a wash.

Washington didn’t need pressure, however, to make a play, as the Cowboys’ second drive ended with Prescott just totally airmailing CeeDee Lamb, failing to see Landon Collins lurking deep—one of the easier interceptions he’ll have in his career. But, ’tis December and the season of giving, so Taylor Heinicke gives the ball right back, as Randy Gregory makes an athletic play to tip the ball back to himself to get the ball right back. There are half-a-dozen flags on the ensuing drive, with the Cowboys’ biggest play coming on a free shot to Michael Gallup after Washington jumped offsides. Washington holds on third down in the red zone, but are flagged for offsides again, allowing Prescott to find Amari Cooper on the re-do for a touchdown. The Cowboys go for two, strangely, and succeed, so they have an 11-0 lead late in the first quarter.

Bryan Knowles: Micah Parsons is trying to wrap up his Defensive Rookie of the Year award early. Washington lines up to go for a fourth down, but Parsons blows up the line and levels Heinicke, knocking the ball loose and letting Dorance Armstrong scoop and score from midfield. That’s six straight games with a sack, the second-longest streak by a rookie since sacks became official in 1982 (Jevon Kearse had eight).

The Cowboys are now up 18-0, and Washington needs a response right away or this one is going to become a laugher.

Vince Verhei: Taylor Heinicke has two turnovers in the first quarter. The first was terrible. The second was even worse.

Cowboys up 18-0. (They went for two on their first touchdown after a Washington penalty and got it.)

Aaron Schatz: Trying to run clock with 4:13 left in the fourth quarter, Dal Prescott just threw it right to Cole Holcomb of Washington. Pick-six, and we have a ballgame. Extra point was blocked, but it’s 27-21 Dallas.

Scott Spratt: I’m hoping that pick looked less terrible from ground level than it did from the sky camera.

Yikes, Dak!

Vince Verhei: Cowboys’ last three drives: three-and-out, three-and-out, two-and-pick-six. I would not hate it if the Football Team made a fool out of Mike McCarthy today.

Aaron Schatz: I’m sorry I flipped this game off for RedZone. It turns out Dallas lost both tackles in this game. Tyron Smith went out injured and La’el Collins was ejected for coming to the defense of Dak Prescott when the two teams got into a fight. Michael Gallup gets the ball slapped away by Kendall Fuller on third-and-3 and Washington gets it back with 3:04 left and 70 yards to go.

Aaron Schatz: Oh, and Taylor Heinicke is out injured so it is Kyle Allen leading this comeback attempt.

Bryan Knowles: And Allen nearly hits DeAndre Carter on a huge bomb that would have set Washington up in great field position. Instead, Carter drops it, and it looks like Allen just fumbled on the next play. They’re reviewing it, but that will be a backbreaker if it’s not overturned.

Aaron Schatz: Consider the back broken.

Baltimore Ravens 22 at Cleveland Browns 24

Bryan Knowles: Lamar Jackson took a hit and had to limp off the field—a low hit on Jackson’s right leg after a pass. Tyler Huntley is in. That seems somewhat worth monitoring.

Vince Verhei: Browns up 10-0 at the end of the first, and that somehow doesn’t express how dominant they have been. Ravens had the ball twice and punted twice with just one first down so far. Browns are dink-and-dunking all over the place—only 16 yards on six carries, but Baker Mayfield is 9-of-11 for 76 yards and a score. Jarvis Landry has a 9-yard touchdown for Cleveland.

And now Lamar Jackson has left the game and Tyler Huntley is throwing incompletions and the Ravens just went three-and-out again. Jackson is limping around on the sideline, we’ll see if he returns.

Scott Spratt: And the Ravens had been so healthy until now, what a turn for them.

Vince Verhei: Mayfield threw a bad interception in this one, throwing behind his receiver right to Anthony Averett for an easy pick. That let the Ravens kick a 50-yard field goal without even needing to pick up a first down. But turnovers go both ways—later, pressure gets to Huntley and forces a fumble, and the Browns recover and return it for a touchdown.

Ravens respond with their best drive of the day, moving 53 yards in seven plays to set up another Justin Tucker field goal. But the Browns are still up 24-6 at halftime and should win this comfortably unless Mayfield continues to give the ball away.

Vince Verhei: The last nail just won’t go into Baltimore’s coffin. They get a field goal, then Cleveland misses one, then Huntley hits Rashod Bateman on a deep ball down to the 1-yard line. Latavius Murray carries it in from there, cutting the lead to nine, and Baltimore goes for two to cut it to a seven-point lead. Unfortunately for them the try is no good, but the defense responded with a three-and-out. Ravens football, down 24-15 with about eight minutes to go, and we can’t put this one to bed just yet.

Vince Verhei: Fourth-and-6, Bateman converts with a 30-yard gain down the sideline. That sets up Mark Andrews’ touchdown catch over the middle. The lead has been cut to 24-22, and the Ravens will need to recover an onside kick now … and they do! The ball hit one of the Browns’ up men and bounced back Baltimore’s way. There’s 1:17 to go and Baltimore has two timeouts, plenty of time to set up Tucker for a game-winning try.

Aaron Schatz: Uh, don’t look now but Tyler Huntley got it 30 yards downfield to Rashod Bateman, who somehow got his feet down in bounds, and then they followed with a touchdown throw to Mark Andrews. And then they followed that up by recovering the onside kick when it hit fullback Andy Janovich of the Browns and bounced back into the hands of Baltimore’s Chuck Clark.

Scott Spratt: I thought every early game had become a blowout, but the Ravens are doing Ravens things. Tyler Huntley is 25-of-36 for 254 yards and a touchdown and just found Rashod Bateman…

… and Mark Andrews for back-to-back plays to get the Ravens within two at 24-22 in the final two minutes. And the Ravens just converted an onside kick to get the ball back!

Aaron Schatz: Ravens won’t do it. First-down bomb too deep for Hollywood Brown. Huge sack by Jadeveon Clowney on second down. Fourteen-yard completion to Andrews set up fourth-and-6. But they threw to Bateman short of the line and Denzel Ward stopped him immediately and there was no first down. Cleveland will win 24-22.

Vince Verhei: Well that was anticlimactic. Jadeveon Clowney with the big sack on second down, then on fourth-and-6, Huntley throws a pass right at the line of scrimmage where the receiver is tackled immediately.

Bullet dodged for Cleveland. That would have been a soul-shaking loss. As it is, they’re very fortunate that the Ravens’ two-pointer earlier in the game failed.

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 at Tennessee Titans 20

J.P. Acosta: The Titans have 163 total yards of offense with 3:55 left in the half. The Jaguars have 33 total yards of offense.

Bryan Knowles: The most excitement I’m having in this one is talking to other people in the playoff scenario group chat about whether the Jaguars will be mathematically eliminated by losing here, or if the Browns game will end first and knock out the Jags that way. Jacksonville has been playing some fairly excruciating football offensively, but their defense has been at least treading water all day. Things finally broke here in the third quarter, thanks to a 24-yard Geoff Swaim reception coupled with a 15-yard low blocking penalty on the Jags. That moves the ball into the red zone, but it takes six plays for Ryan Tannehill to finally run the ball into the end zone himself and give the Titans a 17-0 lead. That’s probably insurmountable, considering the state of the Jaguars’ offense.

Aaron Schatz: This Jaguars play is presented without comment.

Scott Spratt: I haven’t watched a second of this, but I see that Trevor Lawrence has thrown three interceptions. Is this the week that the debate shows discuss whether Lawrence is a bust? I don’t think so personally, but his -17.4% passing DVOA puts him in bad company among recent rookie quarterbacks.

J.P. Acosta: The Jaguars have been fooled by pressure the entire game. The first two interceptions were under pressure and getting fooled by a good Tennessee blitz; the last one was basically an arm punt when nobody was open. He has done a relatively good job of protecting the ball up until this game, but the team is bottoming out real fast.

Bryan Knowles: I also think some of the Lawrence criticism is going to be blunted by just how bad Zach Wilson has been to date; it’s always helpful when you haven’t been the worst in your class.

Scott Spratt: Justin Fields (-38.0%) and Davis Mills (-21.7%) have also been worse, at least by DVOA. So an optimist might say Trevor Lawrence has been the second-best rookie quarterback this season!

J.P. Acosta: The lesson here: playing quarterback for talent-deficient teams is hard!

Vince Verhei: Urban Meyer has already mentally cleaned out his desk.

Tom Gower: The game was more or less what the platonic example of what a realistic Titans fan might hope for in a 2021 matchup of these teams. The Jaguars’ surprisingly game defense makes things kind of interesting for a while, holding the overall score in check, but doesn’t actually challenge the Titans that seriously—they were able to drive the field without any big plays for an opening touchdown and add a couple of field goal drives (one missed, of course). But Tennessee only had 10 points in the first 40 minutes of the game, and that’s enough to keep a game competitive if the opposing offense can score. Which, of course, they couldn’t.

The Jacksonville offense is, to put it simply, a difficult watch. They couldn’t run the ball at all, with James Robinson and Carlos Hyde combining for 6 yards on seven carries today. The passing game had no choice but to try to carry the load, and Trevor Lawrence was efficient when he threw the ball in the first half, completing 10 of 12 passes with one throwaway and one drop. Much like my season-long complaints about the Titans, though, the Jaguars struggle to create explosive plays. For the game, they had gains of 31 (on a shorter pass in a Hail Mary situation at the end of the first half) and 41 (after going down 17-0) and nothing else longer than 14 yards (Tennessee today: 39 on the Swaim screen plus a 15-yard penalty and 32, nothing else more than 16). It’s so hard to make a living off 8-yard passes when you don’t get much after the catch, and it’s an insane ask of a rookie quarterback. Penalties like the three holds called on Andrew Norwell don’t help matters. Any Lawrence mistakes, like the second interception when he got pressured and threw the ball to a dropping rusher, are killer.

Macro-level, this was supposed to be a kind of “get-right” game for Tennessee coming off a bye after a couple of losses, and it played out like they hoped it would, dispatching of a bad team at home without any real drama.

New Orleans Saints 30 at New York Jets 9

Bryan Knowles: Hey, someone in this game found an end zone! After 27 minutes that saw six punts and two field goals, the Saints finally get a drive going. And by “a drive going,” of course I mean Alvin Kamara doing Alvin Kamara things; it really can’t be stressed enough how much the Saints have missed their playmakers as they have seen their playoff odds plummet over the last month and change, and the return of Kamara will help that. With 3:41 left in the first half, the current yardage totals in this one are Alvin Kamara 94, All Other Saints 35, Jets 62. Oh, and it’s 10-3, Saints.

Vince Verhei: It’s 10-6 at halftime and my god are the Jets ever lousy. Lots of drops and penalties, but most concerning, Zach Wilson has been pretty terrible. We haven’t talked about that much this year because expectations for the Jets were so low, but the second overall pick should be playing a lot better than this. I have the Jets and Texans on side-by-side screens and Davis Mills has clearly been the better rookie.

To be fair, Wilson did look good on New York’s last drive of the half. Not just making big throws, but going through his progressions, finding second and third receivers, and hitting guys on the run. The drive stalled after Denzel Mims picked up 15 yards on back-to-back penalties, but they still got a field goal to keep the score respectable.

Dave Bernreuther: Oh man, what a slate to catch on the day when I wake up feeling deathly ill for some reason … no pressure to set up the multi-TV setup, can just lay down and flip between mediocre games in search of something close.

Somehow I landed on this one for a while, during which time I had the pleasure of watching Zach Wilson, under no pressure whatsoever, bounce a pass to Braxton Berrios behind the line of scrimmage, and of course the endless fun of watching the Taysom Hill experience.

My only comment on that last bit is this: if you have fourth-and-a-short-2 inside the 5-yard line, an alleged multi-tool and run threat of a quarterback , a history of aggression, and the defensive luxury of facing the aforementioned inaccurate rookie quarterback … why would your play call be “hard count and then kick if you can’t draw them offsides?”

If that’s not a situation that’s custom-built for that particular quarterback , what is? Why on earth is he even on the roster, let alone being given ludicrous contract extensions?

Vince Verhei: I never said Taysom Hill couldn’t run. Up big with a third-and-12 late in the fourth, the Saints run a quarterback sweep to kill clock and punt, but Hill breaks a tackle and gets into the clear for a 44-yard touchdown that puts the Saints up 30-9. Hill’s over 70 yards rushing with a pair of touchdowns on the day now.

Detroit Lions 10 at Denver Broncos 38

Vince Verhei: Broncos opened the game with 10 men on offense in tribute to Demaryius Thomas.

Officially, this play never happened—there was no timeout or penalty or anything. Broncos went on to drive 75 yards in 11 plays for a touchdown. Mostly on the ground—Teddy Bridgewater had just one completion for 13 yards on the drive. Javonte Williams got the score, a 5-yard touchdown.

Vince Verhei: Broncos scored touchdowns on each of their first two drives and were threatening to turn this into a blowout, but then they produced back-to-back punts as the Lions rallied with a touchdown and a field goal. Broncos got their own field goal as time expired in the second quarter to take a 17-10 lead into halftime. It’s a big day for running backs as the two teams have combined for more yards rushing (171) than passing (166). Craig Reynolds, an undrafted player out of Kutztown making his Detroit debut and on his third team in two seasons, has seven carries for 60 yards for the Lions. Detroit will get the ball first to start the second half, making opponents uncomfortable as they do most every week.

Vince Verhei: Godwin Igwebuike fumbles on the first drive of the second half and Denver takes over at the Detroit 36-yard line. They get to first-and-20 at the 24 shortly thereafter, but Jerry Jeudy catches a 9-yard gain, Javonte Williams runs for 5 yards, and Bridgewater hits Williams for a 10-yard touchdown to go up 24-10. That’s Williams’ second touchdown of the day.

And in the time it takes me to type all that up, the Lions go four-and-out, with Jared Goff throwing incomplete on fourth-and-2 at the Detroit 33. Williams then runs for 5, 5, and 9 yards, then Melvin Gordon gets HIS second touchdown of the day, this one a 14-yarder. It’s 31-10 now and this suddenly looks over midway through the third quarter.

Vince Verhei: Full credit to Dan Campbell and the Lions for not waving the white flag down 31-10 in the second half. Fourth-and-2 at their own 44, Igwebuike runs for a gain of 4. Fourth-and-4 at the Denver 34, Goff hits Amon-Ra St. Brown for a gain of 19 (plus an unnecessary roughness foul on Denver). Fourth-and-goal from the 4, Shane Zylstra can’t reel in Goff’s pass and it falls incomplete, but hey: they’re TRYING. With all of the blowouts we saw today, I’m not sure you can say that about everyone.

Vince Verhei: Nice moment here as Justin Simmons intercepts Goff, then plants the ball on the 88 decal.

Simmons was drafted in 2016, making him one of the few guys on the roster who played with Thomas before the receiver’s last year in Denver in 2017.

San Francisco 49ers 26 at Cincinnati Bengals 23 (OT)

Scott Spratt: Ja’Marr Chase just ended the Bengals’ first drive with his 10th drop this season. That’s tied for the most among wide receivers per Sportradar charting.

Derrik Klassen: Cincinnati’s first offensive drive was painfully on brand. First down, they go under center with Ja’Marr Chase motioning across … 49ers linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair timed the snap and shot through for a tackle for loss on a run play. Second down and third down, the Bengals’ pass-catchers drop passes. The Chase drop on third down was particularly bad: hit him dead in the hands just past the sticks. A little concerning that this problem has cropped back up for Chase.

Scott Spratt: Darius Phillips and Stanley Morgan have fumbled the last two punt catches for the Bengals. Special teams was supposed to be the Bengals’ edge in this one. They out-rank the 49ers in special teams DVOA 10th to 22nd but trail them 23rd to fourth in offensive DVOA and 15th to ninth in defensive DVOA.

Vince Verhei: Zac Taylor, what you do? Fourth-and-1 in 49ers territory, they line up to go for it. Taylor doesn’t like what he sees, so he calls timeout … then sends out the kicking team? It’s a 37-yard field goal try instead of a 42-yarder, but man, if I was going to kick I think I’d rather save the timeout and take a delay of game there and take my chances with the longer kick.

Regardless, the kick is good and we’re tied 3-3.

Bryan Knowles: Taylor was just returning the favor from Kyle Shanahan, who also kicked a field goal on fourth-and-short. And, while I’m recapping the first quarter—five fumbles, though four of them recovered by their own team. Might be something to watch going forward.

Also worth watching going forward—Cincinnati trying to stop the 49ers rushing attack. San Francisco is averaging 6.4 yards a rush through a quarter and err, a quarter, with Jeff Wilson ripping off back-to-back double-digit-yard gains, and the returning Deebo Samuel rushing another 27 yards for a score. 10-3 early in the second quarter.

Vince Verhei: Checking in on San Francisco’s play calling through four drives:

  • Jimmy Garoppolo: seven passes, one sack.
  • Deebo Samuel: four carries
  • Brandon Aiyuk: one carry (which was actually a scramble on a wide receiver pass, but the Bengals were not fooled)
  • Running backs: four carries, all by Jeff Wilson.

Samuel, of course, is more of a runner than receiver these days, and just took the last of those four carries for a 27-yard touchdown to put the 49ers up 10-3.

Bryan Knowles: The Bengals have decided they do not want to win this football game. After deciding to kick yet another field goal on fourth-and-nothin’, the Bengals defense stiffens and forces the 49ers to punt. But Darius Phillips muffs his second punt of the day, and the 49ers get the ball back. It looks like Cincinnati’s defense is going to force another field goal … but they get called for taunting, as Vonn Bell performed the cardinal sin of pointing at someone. Given a third chance, Garoppolo finds George Kittle in the end zone, and they’ll have a 17-6 lead going into halftime in all likelihood.

Vince Verhei: That whole sequence was breathtaking. Bengals were probably going to be down by one point at halftime, or maybe even ahead. Instead it’s 17-6 now, a 10-point swing where the 49ers just had to sit back and watch Cincinnati implode.

Bryan Knowles: Don’t put this one to bed just yet! The Bengals finally go for it on fourth down, and they do … this.

The Bengals needed that. Great throw by Burrow, great job of keeping himself alive by Chase, and it’s a one-score game, 20-13.

Vince Verhei: The dots on that one are a treat. You can see Chase running right-to-left when the ball is thrown and having to adjust and reverse direction.

Bryan Knowles: Jimmy Garoppolo has taken four sacks in the fourth quarter, and so Cincinnati has the ball back. They still need a touchdown, and are facing third-and-long from inside their own 20 with two minutes left, but the game’s not over.

The Cincinnati defense realized that Garoppolo can’t threaten the sidelines or deep, and played him accordingly.

Bryan Knowles: Ja’Marr Chase is a very good professional football player, and the Bengals have come all the way back from trailing 20-6 to tie the game with 1:19 left to play. Chase just double-moves Ambry Thomas (again!), and catches a bomb for the score.

And, not to take anything away from Chase or Burrow, but good lord, are the 49ers’ cornerbacks bad.

Vince Verhei: Keep in mind that Cincinnati got all those sacks without Trey Hendrickson, who was hurt in the first half.

49ers have to go for the win in regulation here. I don’t like their odds in overtime. Cincinnati has been the better team on offense and defense, and we’re only in this position because of special teams mistakes.

Bryan Knowles: Jimmy Garoppolo nearly throws his Patented Awful Interception, but Jesse Bates can’t hold on. The very next play goes to Kittle inside the 30, so the 49ers will have the chance for a long field goal at worst…

Bryan Knowles: … but Robbie Gould misses it! We’re going to overtime!

Vince Verhei: That missed field goal came after intentional incompletions on first and second down to kill clock but then stop it. And … I’m torn. I hate settling for long field goals, for reasons that seem evident now. But they were also out of timeouts, and anything that left the clock running (like, say, another sack) would have ended regulation. I would have liked to see one more sideline throw to try to get closer but I can’t fault Kyle Shanahan too much for that one.

Vince Verhei: Pretty much every big throw Joe Burrow made in the fourth quarter, Nick Bosa was a half-step from getting a big sack. Bosa finally gets there on third-and-3 just outside the red zone on the first drive of overtime. Bengals still get the field goal to take the lead, but might well have won outright if Burrow had escaped again.

Bryan Knowles: The Bengals march right down the field on San Francisco’s secondary and then … got conservative? They ran the ball a couple times inside the 30 and settled for a field goal. They were eating Ambry Thomas for lunch!

Bryan Knowles: And, indeed, the Bengals’ conservatism comes back to haunt them. Jimmy Garoppolo marches the 49ers 75 yards downfield—a big catch by Jauan Jennings, two huge grabs for Kittle (13-151-1 on the day), and then a little flat route to Brandon Aiyuk, who dives over the pylon, and is ruled in the end zone after a review. 26-23 49ers. I did NOT enjoy that.

Vince Verhei: Just like I said, overtime definitely favors the 49ers. Great job by Brandon Aiyuk to wear gold cleats to make it very clear that he stayed in bounds on the winning touchdown. He was ruled down, but the play was ruled a touchdown on replay review.

Another week in the NFL, another radical shuffling of the wild-card standings, especially in the AFC.

Buffalo Bills 27 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 33 (OT)

Bryan Knowles: The Bills had trouble dissuading the Patriots from running the ball last week, but that’s wind -elated, surely, and not relevant for this game … except Leonard Fournette just slipped right through everyone for a 47-yard touchdown, with the safeties well out of position to even try to make a stop. 7-0 Buccaneers early.

Aaron Schatz: Great blocks by Ali Marpet (pulling) and Donovan Smith (on the second level) to make that Fournette touchdown happen.

Aaron Schatz: Fournette run if you want to watch some really great blocking.

Scott Spratt: The Bills have the No. 6 run defense by DVOA but are bottom-10 in defensive power run success rate. During their recent skid, they have faced:

  • The Colts: eighth in offensive power success; Jonathan Taylor ran for 32-185-4.
  • The Patriots: seventh in offensive power success; Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson ran for 34-189-1.
  • The Bucs: first in offensive power success; and Leonard Fournette just did that.

Scott Spratt: Speaking of the power running game, Tom Brady has three first-down carries in the first quarter.

Aaron Schatz: Buffalo just stiffened up in the red zone against the Bucs, so a field goal will make it 10-0. But their defense wasn’t doing a good job of stopping the Bucs on the rest of the field, and more importantly, their offense just can’t block the Bucs’ pass rush at all so far today, so I don’t know what the Bills will be able to do when they get the ball back on offense now…

Aaron Schatz: The Bills offensive line did a much better job on the next drive, which allowed Josh Allen to find his receivers against both zones and man. Suddenly the Bills are moving it easily, although they ran out of juice in the red zone. A lot is going to depend on the Bucs pass rush in this game although their secondary is not as injured as it was earlier this season. Now 10-3 Tampa Bay.

Bryan Knowles: Make it 17-3. Both Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski running free in the secondary, and then Brady and Mike Evans hook up on a beautiful little touch pass in the end zone.

Game’s far from over, but I still can’t get over the Bills kicking a 21-yard field goal. That doesn’t seem to be the ideal strategy to keep up with the Buccaneers.

Aaron Schatz: Here’s that Evans touchdown. Just a remarkable throw with velocity and perfectly placed, but also a fantastic hands catch by Evans.

Bryan Knowles: The Bills’ defense just doesn’t look right. I know a lot of great teams have been made to look very foolish by Tom Brady over the years, but they just don’t look anything like the defense they were last year, or even at the beginning of this one. Bucs are up 24-3 after the most recent brilliant Mike Evans reception and yet another sneak for Brady, and it doesn’t feel that close.

Aaron Schatz: There’s no pass rush. The one time they really got to Brady with a Matt Milano blitz, he threw that ball up to Evans that Evans somehow came down with while tapping his toes by the sideline and the Bucs went in to score two plays later. Everything is totally one-sided in this game. Bucs have 299 yards to 126 for Buffalo with 1:29 left in the first half. Also, we’re going to go into the second half of this game with the Bills not having handed off the ball even once. They ran two option plays where Allen kept the ball, but no handoffs. I know the Tampa Bay run defense is very good but that seems awfully extreme, even to me, a proponent of throwing the ball more than you run.

And as I type this, Josh Allen throws an interception to a diving Richard Sherman while under pressure from three Bucs defenders who beat their blockers.

Bryan Knowles: Yeah. Passing is more effective than running, but you would have to think that you need opposing defenses to at least consider the possibility that you might hand the ball off. Without that, you’re just letting pass-rushers tee off on you all day long.

Vince Verhei: I think we all expected Allen to regress … but this looks like rookie year Josh Allen.

Aaron Schatz: Bills end their first drive of the second half with a fake punt on fourth-and-2. It’s officially their first run of the game by a running back. It failed.

Tom Gower: If you’re inclined to read the last two weeks as a referendum on the state of the 2021 Buffalo Bills, we appear to have an answer. They’re looking a little more effective on their next possession, but down 24-3 with less than 10 minutes to play in the third quarter isn’t the level of competitiveness I was hoping for from this game and that I really wanted after the early slate of games was mostly uninteresting. Running the ball turns out to be tactically useful sometimes, perhaps.

Aaron Schatz: The Bills have life after Josh Allen kept the ball for an 18-yard touchdown. The Bucs go out on the next drive and pick up one first down but then Brady just overthrew Gronk and threw too low for Godwin and the Bucs have to punt. Bills still not getting great pass rush but imperfect throws—Brady is great, but not perfect—have given them the ball back. And don’t look now but they have actually caught up to the Bucs in yards per play, leading 6.2 to 6.1 at this point.

Bryan Knowles: I do not like the “we’re lining up to go for it, oh wait, the offense runs off the field and here comes the punting unit” play the Bills just ran. Especially not down 24-10.

Aaron Schatz: The Bucs haven’t been able to move the ball well in the second half and the Bills are suddenly getting good blocking against the Bucs pressure. They make it down the field and we’re now at 27-24 Tampa Bay. The Bucs will try to kill clock with 4:52 left.

Aaron Schatz: Tampa Bay’s offense has stopped converting third downs in the second half of this game and they just got sacked on third-and-6. They’ll punt the ball back to the Bills, who now have a chance to tie or win this game.

Aaron Schatz: Josh Allen has done so much with his legs in this game. Just went over 100 rushing yards with a 7-yard scramble on second-and-6.

Scott Spratt: I feel like this sort of rushing game is in Josh Allen’s bag of tricks. But I just realized he has a -11.5% rushing DVOA this season. He has never gone negative before, either. Very strange.

Aaron Schatz: Bucs pass rush that was dominating early in this game just hasn’t been able to get home much in the second half. Just let Allen go down the field and into the red zone but Stefon Diggs was covered closely by Carlton Davis on third-and-2 from the 7. Bills settle for the field goal on fourth-and-2 so this one will also probably go to overtime.

Aaron Schatz: Speaking of the Bills playing very well in the second half of this game, Gregg Rosenthal just pointed out on Twitter that five of the last six Bucs drives in regulation (not counting the final kneeldown) went 10 yards or less.

Aaron Schatz: Buccaneers win 33-27. A real iffy DPI was called on Levi Wallace; it was almost like Mike Evans specifically outran the ball and came back to it just to draw the flag. Three plays later, Brady found Breshad Perriman crossing the middle of the field. Tremaine Edmunds couldn’t catch up with him, Perriman hit the sideline and ran down it the rest of the way, 58 yards to end this game. A great second-half Bills comeback but they can’t finish the job.

Bryan Knowles: Full credit, FULL credit to the Bills for fighting back after we all wrote them off; they looked like an entirely different team in the second half.

… they probably should have gone for the win, not the tie, on their last drive in regulation.

Tom Gower: And after I bury the Bills earlier, they had that terrific comeback. As Aaron noted, the Bucs pass rush didn’t seem to be getting there. They tried running the ball some as a tactical changeup, and it worked. They still couldn’t convert a third down, finishing the game just 2-of-13 overall, but converted a couple fourth downs and it otherwise didn’t matter. And the defense as well, helped by a couple of crucial misses from Brady. I didn’t expect it until it happened, so full kudos to them for their efforts. And then what happened late … we have two chances in the 4:25 window for teams down 14 scoring a touchdown to go for two and find out if they could win the game instead of kicking two extra points to tie and potentially force overtime (Bills down 17, so their scenario was slightly more complicated than Cincinnati’s), and both Sean McDermott and Zac Taylor chose to kick, actually completed the comeback, and went on to lose in overtime. It’s like the universe is designed to deprive us of examples of this, except it also punishes the teams for not giving us those examples. Or maybe I’m just cranky after the officiating disparity, with four calls that broke the Bucs’ way very late between the no-call on the Buffalo third-and-2 pass at the end of regulation, the no-call on Buffalo third-and-4 pass in overtime, the first down awarded to Leonard Fournette when I thought the ball didn’t make it to the 16 in overtime, and the pass interference call that was made on the pass to Mike Evans the next play.

New York Giants 21 at Los Angeles Chargers 37

Vince Verhei: The game opened with three straight punts before L.A. warmed up with a nine-play, 60-yard touchdown drive. And it was a drive—60 yard in nine plays, and Austin Ekeler’s 14-yard run to start the drive turned out to be the longest play on the possession. Ekeler closed off the drive with a 1-yard scoring run.

But the Giants answered. Kyle Rudolph rumbles for a 60-yard catch-and-run. Then Elijhaa Penny, maybe jealous of the big day his brother Rashaad had for Seattle earlier, gets open for a lob in the end zone.

We’re tied 7-7 at the end of one.

Aaron Schatz: I interrupt my coverage of Tampa Bay and Buffalo to point out that Justin Herbert’s arm is awesome.

Carl Yedor: There have been legitimate concerns about the Los Angeles run defense for most of the year, but the Giants have been ineffective in trying to attack that weakness so far today. Despite the fact that the Chargers almost have a better defensive DVOA against the pass than against the run (2.3% pass defense DVOA vs. 2.2% run defense DVOA), the Giants’ running backs have averaged 3.7 yards per carry in the first half. Not having Daniel Jones in there hurts because the defense doesn’t have to respect Mike Glennon as a rushing threat, but it has been pretty miserable for New York in the early going. The Giants’ only touchdown came after an explosive gain from the sprightly Kyle Rudolph rumbling down the field. Meanwhile, the Chargers have been getting essentially whatever they want on offense. 24-7 at the half.

Vince Verhei: That Herbert pass is the highlight, but the Chargers have thoroughly outplayed New York and lead 24-7 at halftime. The Giants have 60 yards on that one Rudolph pass and 85 yards on their other 27 plays. Daniel Jones is no Justin Herbert, but Mike Glennon is no Daniel Jones.

Chicago Bears 30 at Green Bay Packers 45

Aaron Schatz: This one was supposed to be an easy cakewalk for the Packers but somehow the Bears are up 10-0 early. The Packers have two failed completions on three third-down attempts and the Bears just got a 46-yard touchdown from Jakeem Grant on a jet sweep flip pass with five lead blockers.

Scott Spratt: Jakeem Grant just scored on a well set-up jet sweep from 46 yards out. But the bigger surprise for me of the Bears’ 10-0 start is on defense, where they have held the Packers to two new first downs on two drives. With a healthier offensive line of late, Aaron Rodgers had taken just five sacks in his last four combined games. But he has been sacked twice already in a little more than a quarter.

Aaron Schatz: Never mind. The Packers found their offense again and then Justin Fields threw a lazy out that Rasul Douglas jumped for a pick-six, and now we’re at 14-10 Packers.

Scott Spratt: Respective Bears and Packers cornerbacks Jaylon Johnson and Rasul Douglas have been big stories early in this game, the former for sticking admirably with star receiver Davante Adams and the second for his pick-six and, more broadly, basically saving the Packers secondary as a midseason signing. And while I had heard some of that buzz for Douglas playing for his third team of 2021 after being released by both the Raiders and Texans, I’m starting to realize just how good he has been. Douglas has allowed just 6.4 yards per target with the Packers. That’s nearly a full yard less than Johnson (7.3) even in his breakout sophomore seasons. And it’s the same rate as Jalen Ramsey and Denzel Ward!

Aaron Schatz: Jakeem Grant just made a terrible decision to field a punt at the 3 and somehow got caught, reversed field, got past a few guys, stuck on the left sideline, and scored a 97-yard punt return touchdown. The Packers are outplaying the Bears and losing 24-14 on a couple of crazy plays.

Bryan Knowles: Packers fans like to complain about their very bad special teams, but their punting unit was actually first in the league in our rankings. That may not be true anymore, as Jakeem Grant just took one back 97 yards for a score and a 24-14 lead. That was the one part of their specials that wasn’t blowing it!

Scott Spratt: The Bears have a 46-yard Jakeem Grant receiving touchdown, a 54-yard Damiere Byrd touchdown, and now a 97-yard Grant punt return touchdown. The punt return is technically the most surprising since it’s the first in the NFL this season. But the receiving ones were unusual too because they both covered the bulk of their yards after the catch. Scouted as an exceptional deep-ball thrower, Justin Fields entered the week with a 9.8-yard average depth of target, the highest among quarterbacks with 100 or more pass attempts.

Scott Spratt: I was curious how the Packers were going to adjust to normal slot receiver Randall Cobb going on injured reserve. And they have interestingly thrown the 6-foot-5 Allen Lazard in there for some plays, and it’s going great. He already has four catches for 58 yards and a touchdown. Those four catches are the second-most he has had in a game all season!

But, naturally, as soon as I start lauding a different Packers receiver, Davante Adams ran an out-and-up and beat double coverage for a 38-yard touchdown. This game couldn’t have started better for the Bears with the big touchdown plays, but the Packers are already within three at 24-21 in the final minute of the first half.

Scott Spratt: After punts on their first two drives, the Packers have scored five touchdowns in their last four drives (including that interception return touchdown). Aaron Rodgers may still own the Bears.

Scott Spratt: Wait, so Rodgers is happy to stay with the Packers, now? Is this more of Rodgers playing the media, or is he just kind of a sociopath?

Scott Spratt: If the Bears were going to come back, it would have helped for the muffed punt bounce-pass Damien Williams scoop-and-score to count. But sadly for the Bears, Kindle Vildor ran out of bounds and didn’t immediately go back in bounds. That wipes the touchdown out in favor of a 5-yard penalty and re-punt. The score remains 38-27 Packers early in the fourth quarter.

Vince Verhei: I have not been able to comment much tonight but I had to say that punting on fourth-and-inches down by 11 in the fourth quarter is incredibly cowardly and I am happy the Football Gods did not reward this decision.

Tom Gower: The Bears offense was productive in the first half in building the 27-21 halftime lead. Yes, the special teams plays were huge. Yes, the touchdowns came on a couple explosives. But the Bears got a first down and at least 30 yards on every offensive possession except the one that ended in the pick-six on third down. And, through 25-plus minutes of the second half, they don’t even have a single first down. Yes, Nagy should unquestionably have gone for it on fourth-and-inches, and it was crazy he didn’t. But the Packers have completely shut down the Bears offense in the second half, and that seems to be flying a bit under the radar.


https://www.footballoutsiders.com/audibles/2021/cowboys-buccaneers-packers-close-top-nfc-seed

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