Chiefs, Chargers Set for Thursday Night Shootout

NFL Week 15 – With close to 100 players in jeopardy of missing Week 15 because of a surge in COVID cases, this was my most difficult Start and Sit column to write this season. But matchup considerations have never been more important. You may be stuck playing some unfamiliar players in unfamiliar roles in your fantasy playoffs. So before you set your final lineups, make sure your handcuffs have the best possible matchups with consideration of factors such as domes, cold winter weather, and defensive tendencies.

The following tables feature the players with the best and worst matchups of the week. Each listed player shows a true-talent (TT) ranking that represents how I would rank him with a perfectly neutral game context. Then, that ranking is adjusted by adding the context of the venue (Ven)—home and road and dome and outside—the forecasted weather (Wea), and opponent tendencies (Opp). The line beneath those rankings shows how much those contextual factors move projected PPR fantasy points. That total (Tot) number gives you a comprehensive estimate of how many fantasy points the player will score this week more or less than his typical total.

You can see our full weekly projections with projected stats, matchup adjustments, and fantasy points by subscribing to FO+.

Quarterbacks

Even deeper-league fantasy players won’t be eager to start Mac Jones in their playoffs after he threw just three passes in Buffalo before a Week 13 bye. But several factors conspired to create that unusual game script. First, the Bills have the No. 2 pass defense by DVOA. And although their run defense ranks eighth, the team is particularly vulnerable to physical running teams. Their 73% power success rate allowed is fifth-highest in football, and the Bills are unsurprisingly then a 7% booster of opponent run plays per game. And maybe more important than all of that, Buffalo saw sustained winds north of 20 mph with gusts over 40 mph. It’s unusual to see conditions that extreme. But even with a broader definition, high winds increase run plays by 4% per game. Altogether, it was a perfect storm of rushing incentive. And Jones won’t have that in Week 15. Really, he may have the opposite. He plays on the road in the dome in Indianapolis this week, and domes increase passing yards and touchdowns by 4% and 8% per attempt even for road quarterbacks. Meanwhile, the Colts have the opposite defensive splits of the Bills with their fifth-ranked run defense and 17th-ranked pass defense, and they cut run plays by 10% per game because of it. The Colts are a top-four increaser of interception rate at 50%, but even so, Jones jumps from 25th in my true talent rankings to 18th in my weekly quarterback rankings with many players at his position dealing with elements, even if not as severe as he did two weeks ago. I would roll with him in two-quarterback leagues and in DraftKings, where I estimate his $5,200 salary is $700 underpriced.

Best DraftKings Values: Tua Tagovailoa ($700 underpriced at $5,700), Mac Jones ($700 underpriced at $5,200), Justin Herbert ($500 underpriced at $7,100)

Best FanDuel Values: Jimmy Garoppolo ($600 underpriced at $6,700), Patrick Mahomes ($400 underpriced at $8,300), Justin Herbert ($300 underpriced at $8,200)

Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes could produce some offensive fireworks in an unusually compelling Thursday night game in the former’s dome stadium in Los Angeles. But if you prefer to play the Sunday slate or just want to save some cash at the position, consider Jones’ Alabama predecessor Tua Tagovailoa at home against the Jets. The Jets have the second-worst run defense and worst overall defense by DVOA. And while I’d normally be worried about their increasing of opposing run plays by 18% per game, the Dolphins are currently lacking in active running backs since Myles Gaskin, Salvon Ahmed, and Phillip Lindsay are all on the COVID list. That could make it tricky to run the ball! And more seriously for Tagovailoa, the Jets increase passing yards and touchdowns by 16% and 15% per attempt. The team’s RPO-heavy offense can serve as a de facto running game and should insulate Tagovailoa from a game like Ryan Tannehill had with just 191 yards and no touchdowns last week in an easy 20-0 win over the Jaguars. Tagovailoa is in the back end of my QB1s with the plus matchup, and his $5,700 DraftKings salary is just the 19th-most expensive at his position.

Panthers head coach Matt Rhule may have disqualified his quarterback Cam Newton from fantasy consideration with a platoon with P.J. Walker last week. If you have two quarterbacks, do you really have any? I’m projecting Walker to throw another 8.3 pass attempts this week, which drops Newton to a midrange QB2 in true talent even with his about as many projected rushing attempts and maybe the best chance to run in a touchdown at the position. Meanwhile, Newton faces the aforementioned Bills defense. And while there are only moderate winds in the forecast, the game could land in the 20s in temperature. And Rhule will no doubt aim to follow the blueprint teams such as the Patriots and Colts have in recent weeks and run the ball. He just fired his offensive coordinator Joe Brady for calling too many pass plays. That plus the quality of the Bills defense lowers Newton further to 22nd among quarterbacks this week. I would bench him in all but the deepest of formats.

Worst DraftKings Values: Tom Brady ($800 overpriced at $8,000), Russell Wilson ($200 overpriced at $6,400), Ryan Tannehill ($100 overpriced at $5,900)

Worst FanDuel Values: Carson Wentz ($600 overpriced at $7,800), Derek Carr ($500 overpriced at $7,500), Tom Brady ($400 overpriced at $8,500)

Tom Brady is 0-3 against the Saints since joining the Bucs in their division, but he exorcised at least his fantasy demons with 375 yards and four touchdowns in their first meeting in Week 8 this year. I wouldn’t bench Brady in a traditional format. But it may be best to fade him in daily formats, especially DraftKings, where his $8,000 price is a season high by $300. The Saints are a top-six decreaser of passing touchdown rate at 17% and a top-six increaser of interception rate at 39%. And with Taysom Hill at quarterback and maybe the best receiving back in football in Alvin Kamara, the Saints are unusually well equipped to extend drives against a team that typically cuts run plays by 50% per game, by far the most in football. Brady is more likely than not to get his first Saints win on Sunday night. He may just fall short of his typically excellent standard of fantasy production.

Running Backs

James Conner and Myles Gaskin are complicated top matchup choices at the position. The former tweaked his knee late in the team’s Monday night loss to the Rams and has yet to practice this week. And he has averaged 0.6 targets per game with teammate Chase Edmonds playing and 5.2 without him, and Edmonds could return from injured reserve this week. That explains Conner’s drop to 22nd at the position in true talent this week. Meanwhile, Gaskin is one of those three previously mentioned Dolphins backs on the COVID list. But whether it’s Conner and Gaskin or some other lead Cardinals and Dolphins backs, some players should benefit from the Lions and Jets defenses that rank 29th and 31st in run defense DVOA and boost run plays by 19% and 18% per game, second- and third-most in football. In your deeper formats, you should consider adding Eno Benjamin and Malcolm Brown to your benches as possible handcuffs.

Best DraftKings Values: Alvin Kamara ($1,300 underpriced at $8,000), Josh Jacobs ($800 underpriced at $6,300), Michael Carter ($800 underpriced at $4,700)

Best FanDuel Values: Devonta Freeman ($1,200 underpriced at $5,900), D’Onta Foreman ($1,200 underpriced at $5,800), Royce Freeman ($500 underpriced at $5,200)

Alvin Kamara is famous for his receiving work, and that should help him overcome an otherwise awful Bucs matchup on Sunday. And receiving is the reason both Josh Jacobs and Michael Carter are underpriced in DraftKings. The former player has increased his target share from 8.9% before a Week 8 bye—and before the Raiders’ coaching shakeup—to 15.7% since, tied for seventh-highest at the position. And Jacobs has seen nine and five targets the last two weeks after teammate Kenyan Drake injured his ankle and went out for the season. Meanwhile, Carter led all backs with 7.8 targets per game between his Week 6 bye and his own ankle injury in Week 10. But Carter is poised to return from injured reserve this Sunday and should be insulated from a potential Dolphins blowout with his versatility as a runner and receiver.

Many of the best fantasy backs have difficult matchups this week. But you are unlikely to consider benching any of them. Jonathan Taylor, Antonio Gibson, Joe Mixon, and Josh Jacobs all maintain their typical RB1 standings despite losing up to a full projected PPR point. Saquon Barkley comes the closest. Whether because of the injury or because of poor talent around him, Barkley hasn’t been the same player since he tore his ACL last September. His 1.8 yards after contact per attempt are a yard less than his 2.8- and 2.9-yard rates from his first two seasons. His 3.0% avoided tackle rate is less than half his 11.1% and 7.4% rates from his first two seasons. And he has reached 20 touches just once this season after doing so 20 times in 2018 and 2019. Those losses make Barkley an RB2 for me in true talent. And despite radically different preseason expectations, his opposing Cowboys have matured into a top-three overall defense by DVOA. And although the division rival is dramatically better against the pass (first in DVOA) than the run (19th), their overall defensive quality and tendency to build leads cuts their opponents’ run plays by 13% per game and rushing touchdowns by 13% per attempt. Those trends don’t unseat Barkley from his 13th spot in my weekly rankings. But they do cost him 0.6 projected PPR points and make him a bad DFS option, where his $7,300 FanDuel salary is the same as it was last week when Barkley faced a Chargers defense ranked 32nd in run defense.

Worst DraftKings Values: Chuba Hubbard ($1,200 overpriced at $5,700), Ezekiel Elliott ($800 overpriced at $7,300), Rashaad Penny ($500 overpriced at $5,400)

Worst FanDuel Values: Rhamondre Stevenson ($600 overpriced at $6,800), Chuba Hubbard ($500 overpriced at $6,000), Saquon Barkley ($100 overpriced at $7,300)

Rashaad Penny may finally have enjoyed a fantasy breakout four years in the making. And his 138-yard, two-touchdown outburst last Sunday certainly justified his placement at the top of most waiver wire lists this week. But as convinced as I am that Penny will see the most touches in his Seahawks backfield again this week, I can’t help but fear what a dramatically different matchup will do to his production. Penny had his Week 14 success against a Texans defense that ranks 28th against the run, increases run plays by 13% per game, and increases rushing yards and touchdowns by 13% and 27% per carry. In contrast, his Rams opponent this week is No. 2 against the run and cuts rushing yards by 13% per carry. And although Penny may still have the talent that made him a first-round draft pick, his Seahawks offensive line ranks 10th-worst with 4.09 adjusted line yards. There may be little Penny can do this week.

Wide Receivers

Amon-Ra St. Brown ranks fourth at his position with 24 targets the last two weeks. And while that total is likely inflated by T.J. Hockenson’s recent hamstring injury, the tight end has yet to practice this week. St. Brown had telegraphed an increased role with a snap share increase to 75% or more in each of his last four weeks. And the Cardinals’ No. 4 DVOA pass defense is less scary for a slot receiver than it would be an outside receiver such as Josh Reynolds or Kalif Raymond. The Cardinals cut No. 1 receiver touchdowns per target by 16% but increase slot receiver touchdowns by 43% per target. None of that makes St. Brown a flex option for me in shallower formats. But he’s up to 39th at the position this week and is a consideration in your deeper leagues and in DFS.

Best DraftKings Values: Gabriel Davis ($700 underpriced at $3,700), Justin Jefferson ($600 underpriced at $8,500), DeVante Parker ($400 underpriced at $4,300)

Best FanDuel Values: Gabriel Davis ($700 underpriced at $4,900), Russell Gage ($400 underpriced at $6,000), Allen Lazard ($400 underpriced at $5,300)

The best daily options at wide receiver have their own injury-related reasons for their underpricing. Gabriel Davis set new season highs with eight targets and an 83% snap share after Emmanuel Sanders hurt his knee last week. He should be a fixture in the Bills’ preferred 11 personnel this week and could overcome cold temperatures and a strong Panthers pass defense with volume. Justin Jefferson and normal slot receiver K.J. Osborn should continue to see more work until Adam Thielen can return from his high-ankle sprain. Just note that the Vikings play on Monday night and may not offer an injury update on their normal No. 2 receiver until your other lineup options have played their Sunday games. Russell Gage has seen a top-20 target share of 24.7% since Calvin Ridley left the team in Week 8. And Allen Lazard paced the Packers with 17 routes from the slot with Randall Cobb injured in Week 14 and set a new season high with seven targets in his new role. The Ravens have cut No. 2 receiver yards and touchdowns by 3% and 26% per target, but they have modestly boosted those rates for slot receivers. Lazard may have switched to a new role at the perfect time to avoid what otherwise would be a difficult matchup.

I wouldn’t rule out (Rhule out?) a big Newton day with 50 or more rushing yards and a rushing touchdown or two against the power-sensitive Bills defense. But I can’t envision how top receivers DJ Moore or Robby Anderson would have similar success. The Bills are a top-two cutter of touchdowns per target for No. 1 (72%), No. 2 (53%), and slot receivers (66%). And while a potential P.J. Walker platoon would likely shift the Panthers’ run/pass balance in favor of the pass, Walker has averaged -0.117 plus/minus per pass attempt, the lowest rate among quarterbacks with 50 or more passes this season. Neither Newton nor Walker has the passing skills to buoy their top receivers in fantasy. And with the difficult matchup, Moore and Anderson fall to 25th and 49th at the position and may both belong on your fantasy benches this week.

Worst DraftKings Values: Deebo Samuel ($2,500 overpriced at $8,200), Mike Evans ($1,400 overpriced at $7,200), Darnell Mooney ($1,200 overpriced at $5,500)

Worst FanDuel Values: Deebo Samuel ($1,400 overpriced at $8,200), Darnell Mooney ($400 overpriced at $6,000), DJ Moore ($300 overpriced at $6,600)

I’m not sure what to do with Deebo Samuel in traditional formats. His target share has plummeted from 31.8% in Weeks 1 to 9 (third-highest) to 11.3% since (84th). And while he has counterbalanced that decline with 6.8 carries, 55 rushing yards, and 1.25 rushing touchdowns per game since, he has run in those touchdowns from 3, 8, 20, 25, and 27 yards out from the end zone and leads all players since Week 10 with a surplus of 3.4 touchdowns over his expected rushing touchdown total of just 1.6. I’m projected Samuel for 0.3 rushing touchdowns and 4.6 targets this week, totals that make him a solid start as my 17th wide receiver in traditional PPR formats. But Samuel has a top-five salary in both DraftKings and FanDuel this week. I would fade him in daily this week.

Mike Evans has enjoyed more consistent fantasy success against the Saints than his quarterback Tom Brady has the last two seasons. But Evans owes the bulk of that success to two touchdowns in those last three games. Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore has done an excellent job limiting Evans to just seven catches and 114 yards combined in their three matchups. And the Saints generally cut No. 1 receiver catch rates by 9% even if they are small boosters of yards and touchdowns per target. Evans is always a threat to blow up any matchup concerns with a score. But I would rather avoid him at his top dollar of $7,200 in DraftKings, the highest his salary has been all season.

Tight Ends

Tyler Higbee and Ricky Seals-Jones burned fantasy players in Week 14, the former with an unexpected COVID absence on Monday night and the latter with just one catch and 8 yards in relief of an injured Logan Thomas. But I think both players could redeem that fantasy value on Sunday. Higbee plays a Seahawks team that increases tight end touchdown rate by 28% per target. And he’s due for better touchdown fortune. With just three touchdowns versus 5.5 expected touchdowns this season, Higbee has the second-best touchdown shortfall at the position, ahead of only Kyle Pitts (2.8). Meanwhile, Seals-Jones had four targets last week and has averaged a TE2-worthy 5.4 targets per game as Washington’s de facto top tight end. I expect Seals-Jones to rebound against an Eagles rival that is a top-two increaser of catch rate (16%) and touchdown rate (65%) for tight ends.

Best DraftKings Values: Brevin Jordan ($700 underpriced at $2,800), James O’Shaughnessy ($300 underpriced at $3,200), Ricky Seals-Jones ($100 underpriced at $3,400)

Best FanDuel Values: Ricky Seals-Jones ($600 underpriced at $4,500), James O’Shaughnessy ($400 underpriced at $4,600), Zach Ertz ($200 underpriced at $5,300)

I suspect some Jaguars players are relieved to move on from fired head coach Urban Meyer. But Meyer’s removal won’t suddenly fill the team’s talent deficit. James O’Shaughnessy was just a fifth-round draft pick originally, but with Dan Arnold on injured reserve and little help from the team’s wide receivers, the veteran tight end has returned to play 81%, 66%, and 73% snap shares the last three weeks and has a 15.7% target share in that time that is 13th-highest among tight ends. The Texans may not be as strong a tight end matchup as O’Shaughnessy’s own Jaguars should be for Brevin Jordan. But O’Shaughnessy has low $3,200 and $4,600 DFS prices for a player I trust as a back-end TE2.

Pat Freiermuth has maintained his midseason ascent to TE1 value with continued touchdown scoring. But his target share has slipped from 18.6% between Weeks 6 and 11 to just 10.1% since. For me, that makes Freiermuth a Hunter Henry-like touchdown speculation. And facing a Titans team that cuts tight end touchdowns by 38% per target, this may not be the week for it. Freiermuth falls from 14th in true talent to 15th in my weekly rankings. And he looks like a clear fade at a $4,500 DraftKings salary that is 13th-highest his position.

Worst DraftKings Values: Zach Ertz ($1,400 overpriced at $5,400), Kyle Pitts ($1,000 overpriced at $5,500), Pat Freiermuth ($700 overpriced at $4,500)

Worst FanDuel Values: Dalton Schultz ($200 overpriced at $5,600), Jack Doyle ($100 overpriced at $5,100), Kyle Pitts ($0 overpriced at $5,800)

DraftKings and FanDuel have different pricing structures, but players tend to see similar discrepancies in their salaries in the respective formats. Mike Gesicki is $5,000 in DraftKings and $6,200 in FanDuel this week. Noah Fant is $4,400 and $5,600. And Tyler Higbee is $4,000 and $5,200. And so with similar ranking orders, the daily platforms tend to produce the same overpriced and underpriced players in individual weeks. But that is not the case for Zach Ertz this weekend. The new Cardinals tight end has nearly identical $5,400 and $5,300 DFS prices, which makes him the seventh-most expensive tight end in DraftKings but just 18th-most expensive in FanDuel. Ertz could enjoy some extra targets the rest of the season with DeAndre Hopkins needing knee surgery. But if you want to speculate on that in fantasy, roll with Ertz in FanDuel where his salary is relatively discounted.