Are the Texans cooked after their 0-4 start? Why a…

Going into the 2026 season, the Houston Texans were a trendy dark horse pick to come out of the AFC and make the Super Bowl. On the backs of one of the best defenses in the NFL and a retooled offensive line in front of QB CJ Stroud, the Texans were expected to wreck shop through the AFC.

Four games into the season, and we still haven’t seen the Texans pick up their first win. 

The offense has been inconsistent, battling through Nico Collins injuries and an offensive line that hasn’t truly gelled together yet. Defensively, a unit that was supposed to be elite has looked the opposite during the early quarter of the season. Their 2.42 points allowed per drive is the highest through four games since Demeco Ryans took over as head coach and is a far cry from last season’s 1.21 points allowed per drive. 

The spin zone for Texans fans is that this organization came back from being 0-3 to making the playoffs in 2025, but 0-4 feels like a deep hole to climb out of, with the 1992 Chargers as the only team to make the playoffs after starting 0-4. The Texans go into their game against Tennessee (who is also winless) desperately needing a win to keep their season alive, but how and why did we get to this point?

Houston, we have a problem: How the Texans got here

Let’s start with the bad for the Texans right now, which focuses on the defensive side of the ball. Yes, they’ve faced a lot of the NFL’s best offenses in Buffalo, Cincinnati and Dallas to start the season, but something about the group has felt…off. It’s why head coach Demeco Ryans took back playcalling duties from defensive coordinator Matt Burke and why the team overall has looked the way it has. 

For the 2026 Texans to work, this defense would have to be an elite group as the offense found its way and gelled together, and the defense hasn’t been that. Again, they’ve faced some tough offenses and were without starting LB Azeez Al-Shaair in their loss to the Cowboys, but the underlying metrics this season have revealed a much larger problem.

Through four games, the Texans are allowing the most explosive passes since Demeco Ryans took over. Despite still being a top ten defense based on success rate (how often teams move the ball against them), they’re 25th in defensive EPA per play (geared more toward explosiveness) and 28th in explosive play rate allowed this season. They’ve given up far too many big passes, and it’s taken a major hit to their entire defense. 

Now, the first issue seems to be communication, which is why Ryans is taking over. There have been far too many coverage busts in the secondary for a unit as talented as the Texans. This play against the Cowboys is a good example. The Cowboys are running a deep crosser for WR Ceedee Lamb, with WR George Pickens running a clear-out route. The Texans are running Cover 3, but CB Derek Stingley Jr is trying to pass off the crossing route of Lamb to S Calen Bullock, because he has a better angle on it. Bullock, however, sticks with Pickens’ deep clear-out route, and Lamb runs wide open.

On the play that would set up the eventual game-winning touchdown for the Cowboys, CB Kamari Lassiter bites on a sluggo from Pickens, and S Reed Blankenship gets too sucked into the middle of the field. That leaves a void for QB Dak Prescott to find Pickens for a big play. Lassiter and Blankenship (both good players) have had rough starts to the season. Lassiter has especially been picked on in the passing game, giving up a 110.4 passer rating when in coverage.

Does hope remain for the Texans?

While it hasn’t been great for the secondary, I definitely think that’s fixable. What might not be fixable is their run game, which looks awful once again. After investing a lot in the offseason in revamping the offensive line and running back room, the Texans’ run game is…worse than it was last year through four games. 

The unit is averaging -0.15 EPA/rush, a 32.9% rushing success rate (excluding scrambles) and a paltry 3.5 yards per carry. The entire goal of this offense was for the run game to help grind teams down so Stroud doesn’t have to carry the entire offense, and so far, the Texans’ run game hasn’t held up its part of the bargain. The idea of condensing formations and being a ground-and-pound team is great in theory, but the Texans find themselves running into a wall — literally — and asking CJ Stroud to save them from themselves.

Now, if there’s a silver lining to the season so far, it’s been that Stroud has been HOOPIN to start the season. Stroud is 11th in EPA per dropback and 13th in dropback success rate, looking more like the player we saw in 2023 than the guy we saw in 2024 and 2025. His pocket movement has improved significantly, and his elite ball placement has remained. This touchdown to Nico Collins was just exquisite QB play.

Do I think the Texans are cooked for this season? I’m choosing to hold on a little bit longer. All of their losses have been one-score losses, and the QB is playing at a high level right now. Once the secondary resolves its communication issues, the defense should pick up again. A 0-4 start is a steep hill to climb out of, but I think the Texans can get out of it.