AFC Playoff Race & Tiebreakers, Bill Belichick,…

JJ Stankevitz: So let’s re-rack the AFC playoff picture as things stand heading into Week 14:

1. New England Patriots (9-4)
2. Tennessee Titans (8-4)
3. Baltimore Ravens (8-4)
4. Kansas City Chiefs (8-4)
5. Los Angeles Chargers (7-5)
6. Cincinnati Bengals (7-5)
7. Buffalo Bills (7-5)
8. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5-1)
9. Indianapolis Colts (7-6)
10. Las Vegas Raiders (6-6)
11. Cleveland Browns (6-6)
12. Denver Broncos (6-6)
13. Miami Dolphins (6-7)

There are eight games this week that will have an impact on the AFC playoff race (the Dolphins and Patriots, like the Colts, are on a bye this week):

• Steelers @ Vikings (Thursday Night Football)
• Bills @ Buccaneers
• Raiders @ Chiefs
• Giants @ Chargers
• Jaguars @ Titans
• 49ers @ Bengals
• Ravens @ Browns
• Lions @ Broncos

So to answer your question, I popped over to 538’s playoff predictor and played with results of these games. The Colts, heading into Week 14, have a 62 percent chance to make the playoffs, per 538. Here’s how each individual game impacts those odds:

• Steelers win: 59 percent | Steelers lose: 64 percent
• Bills win: 58 percent | Bills lose: 65 percent
• Raiders win: 61 percent | Raiders lose: 63 percent
• Chargers win: 61 percent | Chargers lose: 66 percent
• Titans win: 62 percent | Titans lose: 62 percent*
• Bengals win: 60 percent | Bengals lose: 65 percent
• Ravens win: 63 percent | Ravens lose: 61 percent
• Broncos win: 61 percent | Broncos lose: 64 percent

*A Titans win decreases the Colts’ chances of winning the AFC South from 5 to 3 percent; a Titans loss increases it from 5 percent to 17 percent.

So the games that could most positively impact the Colts’ playoff odds are Bills-Buccaneers, Chargers-Giants and Bengals-49ers. If the Bills, Chargers and Bengals all lose this weekend, the Colts’ playoff odds jump to 70 percent.

The games that could most negatively impact the Colts’ playoff chances are Steelers-Vikings, Bills-Buccaneers and Bengals-49ers. If the Steelers, Bills and Bengals all win this weekend, the Colts’ playoff odds drop to 52 percent.

If you’re rooting for the perfect weekend, this combination of results gets the Colts the highest possible playoff odds coming out of the weekend – 75 percent:

• Vikings over Steelers
• Bucs over Bills
• Chiefs over Raiders
• Ravens over Browns
• 49ers over Bengals
• Giants over Chargers
• Jaguars over Titans
• Lions over Broncos

Anyways, hope everyone enjoys the weekend without Colts football. The most important thing for the Colts is to win out, and that’s the focus for players and coaches – not necessarily how these results play out in Week 14.