Ranking NFL divisions: NFC West, NFC North battle…

Last year, an 8-9 record was enough for the Panthers to win the NFC South.

It would have been the worst record in the NFC North, which became just the second division post-1970 AFL-NFL merger to have four teams with a winning record.

Such is life in the NFL, where the power can swing wildly over the years. Yes, the NFC North was historically strong one through four last year, but in 2021, it only had one team over .500.

It can also swing unexpectedly year to year. In 2024, the AFC South had just one team with a winning record and had two of the five worst teams in the NFL. In 2025, two teams — the Texans (13-4) and the Jaguars (12-5) were two of the best teams in the NFL, and the Colts might have been, too, had Daniel Jones stayed healthy.

So how will the conferences shake out this year? We’ve ranked them 1-8, with several tough calls up and down the rankings.

1. NFC West

The NFC West went 29-15 against non-division opponents last year, the best mark in the NFL, and it went 4-1 against the NFC North, including playoffs. So, yes, while the Cardinals won’t be very good this year, there might be three NFC West teams better than the best NFC North team.

The Rams are the Super Bowl favorites. They finished one possession short of a trip to the big game last year, and since then, all they’ve done is add one of the best defensive players of all time in Myles Garrett and overhaul their worst position group, trading for Trent McDuffie and signing Jaylen Watson. On paper, it’s as talented as any team in recent memory.

The Seahawks are the reigning Super Bowl champs, and yet they’ve been under-appreciated from the moment they lifted the Lombardi Trophy. With Mike Macdonald calling the shots, the star-studded defense should be among the NFL’s best. The 49ers, meanwhile, just won 11 games while being obliterated by injuries all year. They have Fred Warner and Nick Bosa back on defense. They added Mike Evans, who is a perfect fit for Kyle Shanahan and Brock Purdy.

Simply put, if you asked every team which division they’d least like to be in, most would say the NFC West. Sorry, Cardinals, that you’re indeed in it in real life.

2. NFC North

First off, let me get this out in the open for the fans of NFC North teams who won’t like this (still very high) ranking: The NFC North is awesome. It is incredible that four teams, all with clear flaws, posted winning records last year. And it could be awesome again.

But, when comparing it to the only division ahead, I see more clear flaws from its legitimate playoff contenders. The Bears‘ defense was bad last year but forced a lot of turnovers; history says turnovers are finicky year to year. Sure, the offense could be so good that the defense doesn’t doom them, but it’s still a weakness. The Lions‘ defense could be without both of its star safeties — Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph — for most if not all of the year, and there are glaring holes at cornerback and pass rusher opposite Aidan Hutchinson.

The Vikings finished 9-8 despite horrible quarterback play last year. Kyler Murray should be an upgrade, but there’s uncertainty there. We know his floor, historically, is much better. How high is his ceiling? In Green Bay, there will be no Micah Parsons for the first month (at least), and there are questions on the offensive line and in the secondary.

It’s easier to finish third in the NFC West than it is in the NFC North. But it’s also easier to win the NFC North.

3. AFC West

Someone other than the Chiefs finally won this division last year, with the Broncos ending Kansas City’s nine-year run. With the Chargers also making the playoffs, the AFC West had two playoff teams for the fourth time in the last five years.

Expect that to become five times in six years. The Broncos aren’t being talked about enough, probably because their offseason was relatively quiet. This is a team that went 14-3, was the AFC’s No. 1 seed and addressed its most glaring need — explosiveness — by trading for Jaylen Waddle. The offensive line is still excellent. The defense is arguably even better and loaded with standouts up front and in the secondary.

The Chargers are hoping the addition of Mike McDaniel and healthy tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt supercharges the offense. I’m bullish there, and it seems like all Jim Harbaugh does is win. The Chiefs could be the hinge team here. If they’re a playoff team again, this division is loaded. If they’re not, this ranking is probably too high. I’m willing to take my chances on Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuolo.

4. AFC North

Last year was an uncharacteristic one for the AFC North, which the Steelers won at 10-7. In five of the previous six years, at least one AFC North team had won 12+ games. The 2025 season was also the first time since 2019 that the division didn’t produce multiple playoff teams.

Injuries to Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow were clear culprits for the Ravens and the Bengals, respectively, but there’s reason to believe both will bounce back. Jackson has won MVP every time he’s had a new offensive coordinator, and new coach Jesse Minter should fix a leaky pass defense. The Bengals finally made major investments on defense in Dexter Lawrence, Jonathan Allen, Boye Mafe and Bryan Cook.

The Steelers are running it back with the formula that’s kept them over .500 but not really a threat to do much more for the past half-dozen years or so. Aaron Rodgers is fine, and the defense is good. Expect more of the same. If that’s the third-best team in the division, it’s a pretty good division.

The Browns are starting Deshaun Watson. We’ll leave it at that.

5. NFC East

The difference between the NFC East and the next two divisions below was minuscule. DraftKings likes the NFC East much more in terms of win totals, but I’m not so sure.

The Cowboys are coming off consecutive seven-win seasons, but their win total is at 9.5. It’s easy to understand why. There have been across-the-board defensive improvements. New defensive coordinator Christian Parker is a rising star. Dallas has Quinnen Williams for an entire season. There are several upgrades in the secondary, led by first-round pick Caleb Downs. If Dak Prescott is healthy, this has the look of a team that could make a playoff run, though how long have we been saying that for? Prescott hasn’t played full seasons in consecutive years since 2018-19. Still, Dallas’ ceiling and floor have both been raised.

The Eagles‘ defense could be a top-five unit. A healthy Jalen Carter is a game changer, and Riq Woolen was an excellent under-the-radar signing. On offense, there’s still plenty of talent, even after A.J. Brown’s departure. Jalen Hurts is adapting to a new system, this one far different than anything he’s done before. There will be some bumps, but this roster is still loaded, and I’ll bet on that every time. Philly has made the playoffs five straight years.

I have significant concerns about the Commanders (offensive line, overall roster talent) and the Giants (Jaxson Dart, offensive ecosystem). If the bottom falls out on both, this ranking is too high. If one or both can be middle of the pack, though, this ranking will look prudent.

6. AFC South

The AFC South occupied a spot nearer the bottom of these rankings for a long time. This still might be a little bit too low. It’s really a game of “What’s Real?” regarding three quarterbacks.

• Was Trevor Lawrence’s outstanding second half of the 2025 season real? Or is he somewhere between that and his up-and-down first half of the season?
• Was Daniel Jones’ outstanding first half of the 2025 season real? Or is he somewhere between that and the mediocre, injured player he’s been much of his career?
• Was C.J. Stroud’s miserable postseason real? Or is he still the guy who looked excellent as a rookie and has since been held back by a brutal offensive line and running game, both of which Houston addressed this offseason?

A quick guess here: Lawrence is still good, but the Jaguars take a step back; Stroud plays better, and that defense is excellent; and Jones is OK, but the roster as a whole isn’t quite good enough. This division has two playoff teams at best. The Titans are still far away from contending.

7. AFC East

The call between the AFC South and the AFC East was an agonizingly close one. Ultimately, the AFC South got the nod, because the bottom doesn’t fall out quite so quickly.

The Bills and the Patriots are both bonafide Super Bowl contenders, but after that, the Jets figure to be a team picking in the top 10, and the Dolphins might be in line for the worst record in the league. If you add up all four AFC East teams’ wins totals, via DraftKings, it comes out to 30. The AFC South is at 32.

8. NFC South

For the third time in four years, the NFC South winner had single-digit wins. The division has combined for one playoff win in the past four seasons.

This, of course, is a measure of 2026, not the past. But it doesn’t look especially promising.

The Panthers finally unseated the Buccaneers atop the division, and Carolina made big moves (Jaelan Phillips, Devin Lloyd) in free agency to try to solidify their status. Still, Bryce Young has been a below-average quarterback at best his entire career, and injuries to OT Taylor Moton, OT Ikem Ekwonu, EDGE Nic Scourton, DL Tershawn Wharton and WR Chris Brazzell III are concerns.

The Buccaneers haven’t exactly had the smoothest training camp, and the Saints have already lost DL Bryan Bresee for the entire season and No. 8 overall pick Jordyn Tyson for a significant part of it. The Falcons are having a decidedly underwhelming quarterback battle between Tua Tagovailoa, who has failed to impress, and Michael Penix Jr., who is just now starting to participate in 11-on-11 drills.

Long story short, there’s not a single Super Bowl contender here. As of right now, it’d be a surprise if an NFC South team wins a playoff game.