Combine Preview: Desperately Seeking Deebo

NFL Draft – NFL coaches and general managers may or may not be looking for the Next Deebo Samuel. But the NFL media certainly is.

Whenever there’s a new strategic wrinkle in the NFL—the Wildcat, the read-option, the RPO, “positionless” Honey Badger defenders, and so forth—many of my colleagues are either assigned or volunteer to write reported features on the buzzy new tactic. On the first day of the combine, they speed-run the coach-and-exec podium interviews asking about the hot new strategic fad in search of useful soundbytes or, sometimes accidentally, actual wisdom. Everyone publishes their features in early March, and many of them are thorough and informative, but no one—not a single human being on the planet—reads any of them. That’s because anyone who is hip to the “Next Deebo” angle is already either skeptical or sick of the “Next Deebo” angle.

This year will be no exception. While there are sure to be questions about the Rams’ (yawn) “all-in” strategy and other trending topics of the past month, Deebo will be the watchword, because “heavy slot” receivers, “widebacks,” or what-have-you are the latest quick fix that can turn any offense with a peashooter quarterback into the San Francisco 49ers. Also, his name clicks.

Deebo Samuel is fun to watch and difficult to defend, of course, as are Cordarrelle Patterson and a few of the all-purpose playmakers now used in roughly similar ways. If a team lacks an S-tier quarterback, its only clear route to the Super Bowl these days is to create a 49ers-style YAC-machine offense, and big, elusive rusher-receivers are more plentiful than potential S-tier quarterbacks. But this ol’ combine veteran isn’t gonna wear down the tread on his Air Monarchs asking every McVay cosplayer in Indianapolis this week questions to which I can already predict the answers:

“Well, there’s only one Deebo…”

“We definitely look for slot receivers who can create mismatches and make things happen with the ball in their hands…”

“Versatility is important. At every position.”

“Any way you can make the defense account for multiple threats is valuable.”

“We think of our quick slot game as an extension of our running game, so it makes sense to use players who are part receiver, part running back in that role.” (Oooh, that’s a PULL quote.)

“First and foremost, our slot receivers have to block, because they will find themselves inside on running plays.” (80% of coaches will say this, but the quote won’t be used, because no one likes to talk about wide receivers blocking except coaches.)

We may get an actual detailed first-hand testimonial from someone like Arthur Smith about his personal journey toward converting Patterson into a featured back. If so, that quote will appear in the midweek Walkthrough. And dozens of other articles across the Internet. And all over your Twitter feed. But there’s also a chance that Smith shrugs his shoulders and offers some variation of “Who the hell was I supposed to give those touches to? Qadree Ollison?”

Make no mistake: slot receivers are incredibly important. Per Sports Info Solutions, targets lined up in the slot—whether they were wide receivers, tight ends, running backs, or Taysom Hill—were targeted 14.1 times per team per game. Slot targets averaged 9.3 catches for 111.7 yards per game. Players on the outside of the formation, per Sports Info Solutions, were targeted 9.1 times per game, catching just 5.4 passes for 68.4 yards per game. Getting the football to the guy in the slot is one of the primary objectives of most modern NFL offenses.

The trick, of course, is that the player who catches the most passes from the slot isn’t often the designated “slot receiver.” Cooper Kupp led the NFL with 108 receptions (holy cow) from the slot. Traditional slotster Hunter Renfrow was second with 90, but Davante Adams was third with 81. Deebo was just 16th, behind tight ends Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce, though missing a game, playing in a run-oriented offense, and lining up in the backfield all had a lot to do with that. (Samuel did finish second in yards, between Kupp and Adams, thanks to some huge plays.)

The data tells us that while teams may look for specific “types” for designated slot roles, they are more likely to just seek the best overall receivers available, then slide the No. 1 guy inside as often as possible unless his skills and play style really dictate his use a sideline burner/leaper type. The DK Metcalf, Mike Williams, and A.J. Green types who line up almost exclusively along the boundary are more like specialists than the Deebo types these days.

There’s also more than one way to skin a YAC. The Deebo-shaped “heavy slot” who can rip through tackles and double as a running back is the current fad. But the pint-sized “shifty slot” receiver, like Curtis Samuel, is still very much in vogue and perfectly capable of also taking snaps at running back. Renfrow is more of a “slot technician,” a possession type who isn’t much of a human joystick after the catch but is better at getting open in the first place. And as already mentioned, sometimes the tight end is in the slot, sometimes the WR1, sometimes the running back, because (spoilers!) the basic premise is to set up a mismatch with a safety, linebacker, or the opponent’s fourth-best cornerback.

So if we want to label every versatile playmaker with YAC potential as a “Deebo type,” even if some of them are Cordarrelle types, Samuel types, or Kadarius Toney types, then whatever: headline hooks are hard to come by, folks. What’s important is that the 2022 draft class is indeed full of receivers who were given lots of opportunities in college to line up in the slot or backfield, take short passes or handoffs, and make something happen in space. Here are a few of the biggest names:

Treylon Burks, Arkansas: The most Deebotastic of the next Deebos: he’s 6-foot-3, he lined up all over creation for the Razorbacks, and rushed 38 times for 222 yards in his college career to go with 66-1,104-11 receiving numbers in 2021, with lots of slot production to go with some deep boundary shots. A likely first-round pick.

Jahan Dotson, Penn State: A traditional nifty-shifty type in the Mecole Hardman mold. Line him up inside in the trips package, throw him the bubble screen, give him some jet sweeps, and don’t forget about the receiver options: Dotson went 2-of-2 for 43 yards as a passer in 2021.

Calvin Austin, Memphis: Think recent Memphis stars Kenny Gainwell or Antonio Gibson, only smaller (much smaller than Gibson) but lined up at receiver full-time instead of moonlighting in the backfield. Austin lists at a worrisome 162 pounds but didn’t look too small for the NFL during Senior Bowl week.

Wan’Dale Robinson, Kentucky: A converted Nebraska all-purpose running back who caught 104 passes in 2021, Robinson is an absolute hoot to watch on film. His ability to work underneath and fearlessly make catches in traffic should make Robinson more of a “slot technician” than a gadget specialist.

Khalil Shakir, Boise State: Receiver (77-1,117-7 in 2021), rusher (71-414-4 in four seasons), return man, Wildcat quarterback (five career passes, plus a bunch of those carries), Shakir is practically the textbook example of an all-purpose slot weapon.

Bo Melton, Rutgers: A personal favorite from the Senior Bowl, and not just because I indirectly helped pay for his scholarship. Melton was more of an outside receiver than a pure slotster for the Scarlet Knights but has the skills of an elusive slot weapon and occasional deep threat.

Justyn Ross, Clemson: Deebo-sized and -shaped athlete who operated mostly out of the slot for a program that has produced a decent wide receiver or two.

The combine will be critical for all of these receivers, for various reasons. Everyone will benefit from a fast 40-yard dash, but a time in the 4.3-second range for Dotson (as NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah thinks may happen) could propel him high into the first round. Ross, meanwhile, appears to be a step less dynamic than some of the others on film and doesn’t want to finish too far down in the 4.5-second range. Burks needs to perform well enough in agility drills and shuttles to demonstrate that he has the change-of-direction ability and explosiveness needed to get open in the NFL when plays aren’t schemed up for him. Melton dropped a few passes in Mobile and needs to show off his hands in individual workouts. Austin, Robinson, and Shakir need to hit or exceed the benchmarks to confirm their status as potential Day 2 picks. And lots of other receivers can climb into the conversation with a fleet 40, an impressive 10-yard split, or other results that merit a longer look at their film.

One or two of these YAC weapons will turn out to be special, but most will end up as little-used fourth receivers in the NFL, where the pressure for playing time is intense, the coverage is tighter, and there are only so many footballs to go around. For every Deebo, there’s a Trent Taylor, whom the 49ers drafted as a buzzy fifth-rounder in 2017 but who languished as just another quick little role player and returner for several years (reemerging in Super Bowl LVI in the same role for the Bengals); or Jalen Hurd, the 6-foot-4, 227-pound all-purpose rusher/receiver the 49ers drafted one round after Deebo in 2019, whose career has been derailed by injuries.

The most exciting, versatile college playmakers often end up as little more than names on the bottom of a depth chart or fantasy cheat sheet. A few become stars. Only the rarest get to redefine their position. Searching for the next Deebo Samuel is a fool’s errand, but sifting through fun-to-watch all-purpose playmakers in search of someone who can make an NFL offense or quarterback look just a little bit better is always worthwhile, both for scouts and for draftniks.

Walkthrough Combine Preview

The Walkthrough team is packing our bags for Indianapolis, where we’ll be bringing you constant updates on all the combine news/notes/nonsense on Twitter, a midweek Walkthrough full of around-the-league quotes and whispers, a comprehensive post-combine wrap-up next Monday, the launch of the Football Outsiders Draft Livestream featuring me and Derrik Klassen on March 8, and lots of other stuff. We have also poured our souls into the debut of the FO40, which you can find here. So let’s keep this preview succinct.

Quarterbacks

They stink, but we will talk about them incessantly over the next two months because they are quarterbacks. Teams will talk themselves into their potential (Malik Willis), experience (Kenny Pickett, Desmond Ridder), purported deep passing ability (Carson Strong), or mobility (Matt Corral, Sam Howell), but Willis is the only one with a chance of becoming more than a third-tier NFL starter, and he will need at least one redshirt season.

For years, I was one of the select few reporters who got to watch combine passing sessions live. I may skip that session this year, because I saw nearly all of the top prospects throw during the Senior Bowl. And frankly, I have seen enough. Most of this year’s quarterbacks will look OK throwing in a dome against air. I saw them throwing in the rain against coverage, and it was NOT pretty.

Running Backs

This is a classic Running Backs Don’t Matter class—not because it’s weak, but because it is so strong. There’s no potential Derrick Henry or Jonathan Taylor in the group, but there are a few bigger backs with breakaway capability (Michigan State’s Kenneth Walker, Alabama’s Brian Robinson), lots and lots of darting change-up types (Notre Dame’s Kyren Williams, Baylor’s Abram Smith, etc.) and a few balanced runners who do lots of things well and racked up gobs of yards in the NCAA (Iowa State’s Breece Hall, Texas A& M’s Isaiah Spiller, Oklahoma’s Kennedy Brooks.) If your team is just looking to beef up its committee, some top talent will be available on Day 3.

I will be keeping a close eye on the workout results of backs like Smith (a converted linebacker who looked great in Mobile) and some of my other Senior Bowl favorites, including Missouri’s Tyler Badie and Arizona State’s Rachaad White. As a Football Outsiders reader, you do not need to be told why versatile fourth-round types are more interesting than running backs who might be drafted in the first or second round.

Wide Receivers

We covered a big chunk of these fellas already. The top of this year’s receiver draft class consists of Ohio State ultra-talents (Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave), Alabama injury cases who won’t be running (John Metchie and Jameson Williams), and some well-built potential go-to targets (USC’s Drake London and Purdue’s David Bell.) The 6-foot-5 London, a smooth route-runner, has moved to the top of many draft boards; strong workout results could move him to the top of the FO 40 as well.

Tight Ends

A deep class, headlined by Colorado State’s Trey McBride, a likely first-round pick who shined during Senior Bowl week and has little to prove this week.

My gut tells me that Ohio State’s Jeremy Ruckert is going to run like a gazelle and bench press an F-250, elevating his draft stock despite so-so collegiate production and a degree from the Jimmy Graham Institute of Blocking. Also, Virginia’s Jelani Woods generated some Shrine Bowl sizzle and looks like the next Eric Green on film, but I think we all need to see some workout numbers on a tight end who looks like a smallish, less-than-ideally-conditioned left tackle.

Offensive Line

A deep class, and I will admit I am behind in my homework on it. North Carolina State’s Ikem Ekwonu is my favorite prospect in this entire class, and I think he is gonna blow up both his workouts and (media and team) interviews.

Planet-sized, 380-pound Minnesota tackle Daniel Faalele earned mixed reviews during Senior Bowl week. He’ll be the most interesting player to watch during weigh-ins: evaluators would love to see him 10 pounds lighter than he was in Mobile and will get really antsy if he’s 10 pounds heavier. Scouts may not expect much from his workout results except minimum benchmarks, but they will be watching his gait and body mechanics: a man his size with too much waddle and/or wobble brings a high injury risk.

Edge Rushers

Forget the wide receivers; this is gonna be where the real fireworks are during workouts.

Michigan’s Aidan Hutchinson could be the first player drafted if he blows up the 3-cone, forty, jumps, and so forth. Those of us on the Football Outsiders draft team have a feeling that his change-of-direction measurables won’t be all that phenomenal: Hutchinson is many things, but “bendy” is not one of them. Even if Hutchinson changes directions like a tractor trailer, he won’t fall out of the top five, but he could plant himself permanently behind Keyvon Thibodeaux. Wolverines teammate David Ojabo, on the other hand, will probably test outstandingly and climb up some draft boards.

One player I absolutely loved in Mobile was Boye Mafe of Minnesota, who made a splash both during Senior Week practices and the game itself. Boye is rather low on most draft boards, but I have a feeling he will impress teams in the interview room and will move up among the (many) big names at the position if he times well.

Defensive Tackles

Georgia’s Jordan Davis will bench press a forklift. Houston’s Logan Hall is going to perform like an edge rusher in agility drills. I am behind in my homework at defensive tackle. And frankly, only Chargers fans are really focused on this position at the combine, and it’s not like there are lots and lots of Chargers fans.

Linebacker

Like running back, only on defense: lots and lots of sturdy, capable, somewhat-interchangeable dudes. There will be starting-caliber talent sitting on the board early in Day Three. An undersized, versatile defender like Baylor’s Terrel Bernard, who looked pretty good in Mobile and has some tasty tape, could earn some attention and dough if he runs in the “I can cover Christian McCaffrey types” 4.45 range.

Like many draftniks, I am over the moon about Utah’s Devin Lloyd, a converted wide receiver who just leaps off the game film. Lloyd-type prospects sometimes turn into low-impact role players in the NFL: an all-purpose blitzing big safety/skinny Will linebacker in the Pac-12 can become a situational dime defender instead of the NEXT MICAH PARSONS in the wrong system. But if Lloyd tests well, I will be beside myself, and no one will be able to get me to shut up about the NEXT MICAH PARSONS.

Safety

Notre Dame’s Kyle Hamilton could be the next Ed Reed. Baylor’s Jalen Pitre is going to put up some Justice League numbers in workouts; I have him pegged as the Next Jamal Adams but will revisit that based on how he runs.

Cornerback

Let’s start with Derek Stingley Jr.’s medicals: we’ll be listening for a clean bill of health (or one of those troubling reports that typically bubbles up at the start of the combine) on Stingley’s ever-ailing left foot. Stingley is getting some top-five buzz right now, which sounds to me like an NFL insider smokescreen or wishcasting (the dude barely played in 2021 and didn’t look all that spectacular in 2020) than anything substantial. Stingley needs both good medicals and some A+ interviews to be the first cornerback off the board, barring some act of Easterby.

I’m also one of the few Sauce Gardner skeptics in the draft universe. His portfolio is built largely out of hooks: He’s tall! He never allowed a touchdown! He’s “Sauce!” I have seen too many lanky-grabby cornerbacks turn into dime defenders in the NFL to jump with both feet onto the bandwagon based on what I have seen on tape. But if Gardner rocks his workouts, I will probably hush up and go with the flow.

And Finally … Check Out the FO40

Want more pre-combine capsules and scouting reports from yours truly? Check out the FO40. It’s divided into two parts: the traditional FO40 (our big board, regardless of position) and the Fantasy 40 (skill position players, so you can get the dope on what we really think of some of these quarterbacks.)

The FO40 will be a living, breathing document that will evolve throughout the draft season. Next week, we’ll be updating it with combine results and observations. As metrics like Playmaker Score and QBASE become available, we’ll add them to the profiles (some early projected numbers are already in place). Links to Derrik Klassen’s Draft Film Room deep dives will help you get more in-depth observations on the biggest names, and we’ll be scouring both the game film/tape and the Sports Info Solutions database over the weeks to come to provide comprehensive (and entertaining!) draft coverage in a bite-sized package.

Read it. Bookmark it. Nitpick it. Check back early and often. And TTFN: see you in Indianapolis!

As always, Football Outsiders’ 2022 NFL draft coverage is presented by Underdog Fantasy.