Pre-Combine Mock Draft: Giants Go Big, Eagles Go…

NFL Super Bowl – The following 2022 first-round mock draft contains:

• 32 picks
• 27 teams
• Two quarterbacks
• Twice your recommended daily dose of Aaron Rodgers/Russell Wilson trade speculation
• Philadelphia Eagles fan service
• Cincinnati Bengals trolling
• Plenty of insights and analysis, but
• Lots of speculation and wisecracks, because we haven’t even reached free agency or the daggum combine yet!

And away we go:

1. Jacksonville Jaguars: Ikem Ekwonu, Offensive Tackle, North Carolina State

Salvaging Trevor Lawrence’s potential is the Jaguars’ only priority in 2022. That’s why they hired sitcom dad Doug Pederson as head coach, and it’s why they will emphasize pass protection in free agency and the draft.

But which pass protector? Benjamin Robinson’s Grinding the Mocks research suggests that Alabama’s Evan Neal is the current consensus choice. We’ll get to Neal soon enough, but Walkthrough just loves Ekwonu’s tape and thinks that the Hulk-sized lineman will blow up both combine workouts and interviews. 

Trading down would be an appealing option for the Jaguars. But with several top candidates at tackle, edge rusher and receiver but zero top candidates at quarterback, nobody’s gonna want to trade up. 

2. Detroit Lions: Kayvon Thibodeaux, Edge Rusher, Oregon

Robinson’s Grinding the Mocks research has Aiden Hutchinson ranked ahead of Thibodeaux, but that may be the result of inside-baseball mock draft click science: Detroit team plus Michigan star equals positive engagement. Thibodeaux ranks ahead of Hutchinson on the FO 40 (launching next week!), and we have a hunch that the gap will widen after combine workouts, particularly the 3-cone. 

The Lions defense finished 31st, 27th and 31st in adjusted sack rate in 2021, so this is a case where the Best Available Athlete also fits a position of extreme need. .

3. Houston Texans: Kyle Hamilton, Safety, Notre Dame

Six cups of coffee? Check. Twenty straight hours of Veggie Tales on DVD? Check. Twenty-four bench-presses of an empty bar with lots of grunting? Check. 

I HAVE NOW ACHIEVED THE HOUSTON TEXANS FRONT-OFFICE HEADSPACE. And it feels a lot like a weak-tea version of the Cowboys headspace: draft a big-strong-famous guy the owner and his life coach have heard of, claim it’s part of some inscrutable personnel philosophy, waddle off to the back nine with unearned confidence. Hey, it often works for the Cowboys!

And hey, Hamilton’s awesome. Also, Lovie Smith is now in charge, and Smith’s defense relies on its deep safeties, so this selection makes as much sense as any. 

4. New York Jets: Aidan Hutchinson, Edge Rusher, Michigan

The Jets have not finished higher than 20th in adjusted sack rate since 2014, so this is a safe pick. Hutchinson and a returning Carl Lawson will give the Jets an all-important “identity”: it will make them good at something, after a year in which they struggled to simply be non-terrible at anything.

5. New York Giants: Evan Neal, Offensive Tackle, Alabama

Walkthrough really wanted to play a hunch here: Iowa’s Tyler Linderbaum is the best center prospect we’ve seen in a decade, and with Andrew Thomas developing into a quality left tackle, the Giants might choose to address their issues on the interior line. But Neal played right tackle and guard early in his collegiate career, so Thomas can stay put while the Giants add a don’t-call-him-a-Hog-Molly on the right side of their line, which has been a disaster area for several years.

6. Carolina Panthers: Kenny Pickett, Quarterback, Pitt

It’s a poorly-kept secret that the Panthers are shopping on the quarterback trade market. But nobody with a no-trade clause or a second career as a game-show host/podcaster will willingly climb aboard Matt Rhule’s sinking ship.

Once the organization’s options become limited to the Wentz-Garoppolo tier, Rhule will nope out of the veteran market in self-defense. A rookie could give Rhule a developmental mulligan year – think Matt Nagy’s Bears gambit in 2021 – but Malik Willis, the higher-ranked quarterback in the FO 40 (coming soon!), would be too risky. Rhule needs a Mac Jones-type who can look halfway decent immediately, and Pickett’s the only quarterback in the draft remotely in that category.

In other words, this pick has nothing to do with the caliber of the prospect or the needs of the organization but everything to do with the self-preservation instincts of the team’s decision-makers. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is how accurate mock draft predictions are made.

7. New York Giants: Tyler Linderbaum, Center, Iowa

Couldn’t hold back any longer! Yes, this is a reach. No center has been drafted higher than 18th in the 21st century or higher than 12th since the merger. But Walkthrough is certain Linderbaum will be the highest-drafted center in a long time. And just look at the situation Joe Schoen and Brian Daboll are in: ownership expects them to transform Daniel Jones into Josh Allen, but their interior offensive line is in shambles. If they bulwark the offensive line, they can get an “accurate read” on Jones. Heck, they might even discover that Jones can be kinda-sorta effective in a competent offense with decent protection and a receiver corps that looks solid on paper. 

Defense? Schoen and Daboll can worry about that when the Giants stop punting on fourth-and-inches and quarterback-sneaking during the opening coin toss. 

8. Atlanta Falcons: Malik Willis, Quarterback, Liberty

When there are two first-round worthy quarterbacks in a draft class, three of them will be selected in the first round. And when there are zero first-round worthy quarterbacks in a draft class, two of them will be selected in the first round.

Falcons fans think Matt Ryan has a few years left because he’s like their dad; Steelers fans thought Ben Roethlisberger had a few years left as recently as New Year’s. National observers think Ryan has a few years left because his stats look decent and national observers don’t pay much attention to Falcons games. I watch nearly every Falcons game with an impartial eye, so trust me: Ryan looked as creaky last year as Roethlisberger in 2020. We will soon be entering “long windup to throw 30-yarder” territory.

This is a golden opportunity for the Falcons to draft and redshirt a cannon-armed, fleet-footed local guy capable of playing the Ryan Tannehill role in Arthur Smith’s offense come 2023. It’s that or turn into the Steelers. And at least the Steelers have a trophy case to polish.

9. Denver Broncos: George Karlaftis, Edge Rusher, Purdue

If the Packers end up with this pick, they will select Karlaftis, some other edge rusher, or Sauce Gardner and rebrand themselves as a pesky young defense-oriented team.

If the Seahawks possess this pick, they will try to position themselves for a Malik Willis-centric rebuild.

If the Texans end up with it, they will fold it into a little origami sailboat and set it free in the Gulf of Mexico.

And if the 49ers or Colts end up with it, Broncos fans should just set their season ticket letters on fire.

But if the Broncos retain the pick and neither Willis nor Kenny Pickett is on the board, they should grab an edge rusher to supplement oft-injured Bradley Chubb and upgrade a pass rush that fell to 18th in adjusted sack rate last season.

Just who the best edge rusher available will be should sort itself out after the combine. For now, Walkthrough likes Karlaftis’ combination of size, athleticism, hand-fighting technique and upside.

10. New York Jets: Garrett Wilson, Wide Receiver, Ohio State

Jameson Crowder led the Jets with 51 catches last season, Elijah Moore with 538 yards. The Jets receiving corps was Six Slot Receivers in Search of an Outside Guy; that search turned up Corey Davis, which means the search must continue. 

Wilson can get open on the first few steps after his release and bounce off tacklers after the catch, two skills that could make him Zach Wilson’s favorite target right away. Wilson, Moore, either Crowder or Braxton Barrios (they’re free agents) and Davis would give the Jets a pesky little RPO and YAC offense. Hey, it kinda worked for the Dolphins!

11. Washington Commanders: Devin Lloyd, Linebacker, Utah

The (ugh) Commanders need a quarterback, of course. We could have said, “Hey, the Panthers will trade for Carson Wentz, the Broncos will snag Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan has two more good years in him, so here’s Kenny Pickett or Malik Willis!” Things could work out that way, but Walkthrough doesn’t think teams will be able to sit in the middle of the draft order and land one of the two feasible prospects. Once the merry-go-Rodgers stops spinning, the teams left out in the cold will have the Jets and Giants on the phone looking for their second first-rounders.

So let’s pencil in another year of Tyler Heincke for now – he’s no worse than Jimmy Garoppolo but far cheaper – and give Ron Rivera yet another linebacker for his collection. Lloyd can fly all over the field as a Mike on early downs, then slide down to the edge in a NASCAR package on third-and-long. He’s undersized, but that’s what Jonathan Allen and Da’Ron Payne are for. Assuming Jamin Davis develops after a shaky rookie season, he and Lloyd could be Rivera’s new Thomas Davis and Luke Kuechly. All the (ugh) Commanders will need then is a Cam Newton. Come to think of it … the original is available.

12. Minnesota Vikings: Sauce Gardner, Cornerback, Cincinnati

It’s finally time to break the seal on a deep, interesting cornerback class.

Patrick Peterson was the Vikings’ most reliable cornerback in 2021. But Peterson is: a) a free agent; b) about 83 years old; and c) not nearly as great as he was in the mid-2010s. Mackenzie Alexander is also an aging free agent, and the Vikings desperately need to get younger on defense. Sauce is a little like former Vikings first-round pick Xavier Rhodes: tall, speedy feisty, with tremendous upside (though worrisome downside). He wouldn’t be the sexiest pick, but these are the Vikings, the team that wore the same flannel shirt around the house for eight years. Let’s not expect sexiness from Kevin O’Connell and Kwesi Odofo-Mensah overnight. 

13. Cleveland Browns: Jameson Williams, Wide Receiver, Alabama

There are two schools of thought when it comes to mock-drafting the Browns: add a receiver to further spit down the well of their downfield passing game, or be a contrarian and pair them with a defender like Georgia’s Jordan Davis so they can surrender to their running-and-defense reality. 

As Benjamin Robinson noted last week, the Browns are often paired with Ohio State’s Garrett Wilson: obvious need meets click science. Wilson will be gone by the time the Browns select, and Williams may be a better fit: a speedster with double-move, end-around and return-game capabilities to play the hypothetical Odell Beckham role in their theoretical deep passing game. 

And really, just because Baker Mayfield cannot connect with his big-play threats doesn’t mean the Browns should give up on even having big-play threats.

14. Baltimore Ravens: Derek Stingley Jr., Cornerback, LSU

Cornerback is an obvious need for a team that plumb ran out of them in 2021, finishing 30th in DVOA against No. 1 receivers and 29th against No. 2 receivers. 

Stingley is sliding down draft boards: evaluators have started to realize that the former five-star recruit who intercepted six passes in 2019 hasn’t done much for the last two years. But the Ravens love to draft for upside and aren’t afraid of slow-cooking a defensive prospect for a year.

If you prefer Clemson’s Andrew Booth in this position, there’s a chance that Eric DeCosta will agree with you after the combine interviews and medicals. 

15. Philadelphia Eagles: David Ojabo, Edge Rusher, Michigan

Eagles fan service, Part I: a raw edge rusher who may possess more pure athleticism and upside than teammate Aidan Hutchinson but still has a lot to learn after spending his childhood in Scotland and taking up football late. Think Brandon Graham meets Jordan Mailata!

16. Philadelphia Eagles: Treylon Burks, Wide Receiver, Purdue

Eagles fan service, Part II: a king-sized, heavy-duty slot receiver who can both leap for contested catches and rumble away from defenders with the ball in his hands. Burks may not merit the Deebo Samuel comparisons that are inevitably coming, but he’ll make Eagles fans forget about Jalen Rando and J.J. Arcega-Whatshisface in a hurry. See, it’s already happening!

17. Los Angeles Chargers: Jordan Davis, Defensive Tackle, Georgia

Select CGI giant of a human with nimble feet, improve run defense that ranked 30th in DVOA in 2021, reach playoffs, make everyone wonder what was so special about the Bengals. 

18. New Orleans Saints: Charles Cross, Offensive Tackle, Mississippi State

The Saints’ cap situation is so dire and their 2022 outlook so hopeless that it would make sense for them to trade out of the first round, scrimp on a relatively-pricey first-round contract, perhaps land a 2023 first-rounder and extra low-cost goodies, and almost literally write off this season. That makes even more sense if there’s no viable quarterback prospect on the board.

Cross has dropped in our mock draft, and a lineman-needy team (the Bengals) that’s set at other positions (the Bengals) could make a tempting offer to get a missing piece to their Super Bowl puzzle (Bengals Bengals Bengals).

Should the Saints stay put to save on roaming charges and cellphone data, they can plug Cross in to replace Terron Armstead after he signs with the Bengals. 

19. Philadelphia Eagles: Nakobe Dean, Linebacker, Georgia

Eagles fan service Part III: my dear Philly Phaithful, Walkthrough knows what you want deep down inside. Not a cornerback, even though you may think you want that. You want what has been denied from you since Jerry Robinson in 1979: a true first-round linebacker. (Marcus Smith does not count. He was an edge rusher. Sort of.) Sure, the franchise historically avoids investing heavily at linebacker, for analytics-approved reasons. But this is their third pick, and Dean is a legitimate first-round talent with three-down capabilities. 

How do you like the 2022 Eagles with Ojabo, Burks and Dean in the fold? Deshaun Who??? Thought so. 

20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Kenyon Green, Offensive Line, Texas A&M

Green is a big ol’ nightclub bouncer of a lineman who is built like and airport shuttle. His ability to play either tackle or guard position will make him appealing to a team (Bengals) that may feel comfortable at left tackle but knows it must upgrade elsewhere.

The Steelers also need lots of help along the offensive line. They can select Green here to replace Trai Turner after he signs with the Bengals. (Yep, gonna beat this running gag into the ground.)

21. New England Patriots: Travon Walker, Defensive End, Georgia

We were going to mock a wide receiver to the Patriots, but we didn’t want to curse any of these poor lads with such a cruel fate. Bill Belichick and his recycled staff of Joe Judge, Matt Patricia, Nike the Dog and maybe Bill O’Brien (henceforth dubbed The Failure Council) will likely be in Best Available Athlete mode, at least in terms of athletes who fit their scheme. Walker, a buzzy player entering the combine, isn’t a traditional edge rusher, but he could shine in a versatile Trey Flowers-type role. 

22. Las Vegas Raiders: Trent McDuffie, Cornerback, Washington

With Mike Mayock gone, mocking the Raiders is no longer a matter of grabbing someone from Clemson and then writing a joke about how Mayock just grabs a guy from Clemson. McDuffie is a safe, low-downside, moderate-upside pick who can make up for some past reaches at cornerback and immediately upgrade a pass defense that ranked 21st in DVOA last season.

Depending on how the cornerbacks run at the combine, the Raiders may instead end up with someone like Andrew Booth, from … Oh God it’s all happening again!

23. Arizona Cardinals: Trey McBride, Tight End, Colorado State

The Cardinals need a center, because Rodney Hudson and Max Garcia should be remanded to a youth baseball camp to teach shortstops how to field grounders. Iowa’s Tyler Linderbaum will be long gone by the 23rd pick. Zion Nelson was a Senior Bowl standout and the Grinding the Mocks choice, but he’s still learning the position, and the last thing the Cardinals need is another spray snapper.

The Cardinals also need a tight end, because Zach Ertz, Maxx Williams, Demetrius Harris and Darrell Daniels are all free agents. (Great roster management, Steve Keim!) McBride is another Senior Bowl standout: a solid all-around weapon over the middle of the field who can do Ertz-like things at affordable prices. 

24. Dallas Cowboys: Devonte Wyatt, Defensive Tackle, Georgia

Another excellent Georgia defender and Senior Bowl riser. When mocking for the Cowboys, it’s best to keep things simple: they like big/strong/fast/famous guys and don’t sweat the minutiae much. Wyatt is huge, mighty, explosive for a man his size and will only get more famous as draft season winds on. 

25. Buffalo Bills: Kenneth Walker III, Running Back, Michigan State

Mocking a running back to the Bills is becoming a tradition like mocking a wide receiver to the Packers: we know they aren’t going to draft one, but the fan base wants one, and it just makes too much sense to overlook. 

The Bills aren’t one player away from the Super Bowl, they are about ten plays away from the Super Bowl, so turning Devin Singletary (20th in rushing DVOA) into a change-up back and replacing Zack Moss (negative small-sample DVOA) with a Jonathan Taylor-like big-play threat would indeed matter. And the Bills aren’t exactly desperate for help at other positions.

Eh, the Bills are more likely to draft a cornerback like Clemson’s Andrew Booth Jr. or Auburn’s Roger McCreary or reinforce the line with Boston College’s Zion Johnson. They got to where they are now by thinking one year ahead instead of reacting to immediate needs (and because Josh Allen discovered he’s the Last Son of Krypton). But Bills fans will be clamoring for Walker if he’s still on the board, and Walkthrough is all about keeping the customer satisfied.

26. Tennessee Titans: Chris Olave, Wide Receiver, Ohio State

The Titans must make a solemn vow never again to throw the ball to Nick Westbrook-Ikhene with a big game on the line. They need a real WR3 who can also be a WR2 during Julio Jones’ lengthening stretches of unavailability/ineffectiveness.

Olave probably won’t be on the board this late in the draft after he runs in the 4.3 range at the combine, so pencil in the Best Receiver Available: Arkansas Treylon Burks could be a load in the slot, USC’s Drake London a crafty possession target, or Penn State’s Jahan Dotson a slippery jitterbug and jet sweep threat.

27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Andrew Booth Jr., Cornerback, Clemson

It’s uncertain what the Buccaneers lineup will look like after free agency, but it’s probably not gonna look good: lots of veterans are about to jump ship, and Jason Licht may be happy to point them to the lifeboats so he can start over as soon and affordably as possible. So this is a “scoop up the best available player at a high leverage position” selection: Booth is a high-upside playmaker at a position where the Buccaneers were rather thin before the coming free-agent exodus.

28. Green Bay Packers: Drake London, Wide Receiver, USC

A tradition unlike any other: mocking a wide receiver to the Packers to attract/repel/troll their fanbase. The usual boilerplate explanation applies: Aaron Rodgers really wants one and will act like a toddler who can’t have ice cream if he doesn’t get one; pretending Marques Valdez-Scantling and Allan Lazard are championship-caliber WR2s has not made them anything more than league-average WR3s; it’s not like Kayvon Thibodeaux is going to fall to the Packers at 28, etc. London is a heavy-duty possession receiver who can get open on shorter routes, making him a fine choice for a No. 2 receiver. 

The Packers will bulwark their offensive line or secondary instead, but hey, we’re trying to play the peacemaker here.

29. Miami Dolphins: Zion Johnson, Center-Guard, Boston College

A team that’s a blocker or two away from winning the Super Bowl (Bengals) cannot afford to stand pat at the end of the first round. The Dolphins are all-but certain to address their woeful line with someone like the versatile Johnson, a mauling guard who is cross-training at center. The Packers may also be seeking offensive line help, the Titans need help (center Ben Jones is a free agent), the Bills might just grab the B.A.A., and so forth. 

But enough about that other team! The Dolphins finished 30th in adjusted line yards and only ranked 19th in adjusted sack rate because Tua Tagovailoa got shock-collared if he held the ball for more than two seconds. The Adorkable Mike McDaniel needs offensive lineman if he hopes to Shanahan up this offense, and Johnson is the best all-around option on the board.

30. Kansas City Chiefs: Arnold Ebiketie, Edge Rusher, Penn State

Frank Clark is $19.5 million in cap space just waiting to be set free. Melvin Ingram was a useful rental. Steve Spagnuolo’s blitz rate (28.1% per Pro Football Reference, eighth in the NFL) is generating too many open receivers and too few sacks. Ebiketie is big-game ready (he shined against Michigan and other top competition) and fills an immediate need for a team that cannot afford to backslide. 

31. Cincinnati Bengals: Trevor Penning, Offensive Tackle, Northern Iowa

As mentioned a few times in this mock draft, the Bengals should not and probably will not upgrade their offensive line by sitting at 31 and waiting for someone to fall to them. Perhaps they will trade up. Perhaps they will go HAM in free agency and come away with Trai Turner and Ryan Jensen, in which case they could actually use this pick at edge rusher or quarterback. Penning is a placeholder pick, a Senior Bowl riser who could win a starting job at right tackle or guard. If the Bengals do this, it will be fine. If it’s all they do, it won’t be enough.

32. Detroit Lions: Roger McCreary, Cornerback, Auburn

This is safe “quarterback lottery ticket” territory — the Lions could lock one down with a fifth-year option if they strike gold — but we cannot in good conscience endorse Desmond Ridder or Matt Corral as first rounders, no matter how buzzy it might be. Wide receivers Jahan Dotson, David Bell and George Pickens are all on the board, and all will make swell second round picks. We’ll rap up this mock by selecting the B.A.A.: an experienced, competitive defender who should be able to step right into a starting role. 

Programming Notes

We’re beefing up our draft coverage here at Football Outsiders! That means more conventional stuff like mock drafts. Don’t pretend you’re too cool for them.

Derrik Klassen’s draft edition of Film Room kicked off late last week with a deep dive on Kayvon Thibodeaux. Look for more in-depth coverage from Derrik every Wednesday throughout draft season.

Walkthrough will run twice per week on Mondays and Thursdays from now through the beginning of May. Monday’s Walkthrough will be draft focused, Thursday’s free agency (salary cap, etc.) focused. Yes, there will be some overlap, but whatever. Next Monday’s Walkthrough will be a Pre-Combine Spectacular! I have no idea what I am writing for Thursday yet.

Like podcasts? Check out Derrik and I, plus some special guests, on the Football Outsiders Draft Livestream every Tuesday at 1pm Eastern from now through the logical end point.

All your favorite content will still arrive in the weeks to come: more of Benjamin Robinson’s meta-mock drafts, QBASE and other tools, looks back at past drafts, and so on. You can start looking for much of that material after the combine. 

And finally, next Monday marks the launch of the first every FO 40. It’s actually two “40’s:” one for the overall draft and a Fantasy 40 of skill-position players. These are scouting reports and capsules you can use (no self-indulgent scouting babble or vague boilerplate). They will also be a one-stop location to find our exclusive projections: QBASE, Playmaker Score, BackCAST, SackSEER and the all-new TRAVIS metric (guess what position that’s for)!

So check back early and often for draft coverage you’ll love from a source you trust.