Pete Carroll can do these 4 things to help the…

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Yes, we’re on the side of the nerds in this war. Unfortunately, the term itself has been poisoned by the discourse on social media – every time a team fails on fourth down it’s celebrated as a great victory for people who prefer an older, dumber version of the game.

What this really boils down to is using basic math to make more informed decisions. In this case, the Seahawks should be using “the analytics” to take advantage of their personnel.

Especially considering the sheer amount of passing/receiving talent on this roster, this offense should be more aggressive in three key areas.

1. Throwing more on first down

Maintaning a healthy pass/run balance is important for any NFL team – especially this one – but offensive coordinator Shane Waldron should be passing more on first down, which we know produces more value and expected wins than running. Yet, Seattle only passed on 54.97% of its first down attempts this season. That’s just No. 21 in the league.

All of the teams below them and most of the ones above don’t have a quarterback of Russell Wilson’s caliber, so there’s no excuse not to set him loose more often on first down. Given their personnel and their staff, the Seahawks should be right up among the league leaders like Bruce Arians’ Bucs (67.57%)and Sean McVay’s Rams (65.63%) in this department.

2. Fourth-down decision making, playcalling

Perhaps the most frustrating element of the offense during the Carroll/Wilson era is how rarely they go for it on fourth down. This despite usually having powerful running backs like Marshawn Lynch or Thomas Rawls as well as brilliant possession receivers like Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett.

The 2021 season was no exception – in fact the team’s issues in this area have never been worse. The Seahawks finished dead last in fourth down attempts (11) and conversion rate (36.4%). The hard truth here is that Carroll’s staff is falling further behind in this every single year as the rest of the league is trending in the other direction.

This won’t come as a surprise, but NFL teams are getting SIGNIFICANTLY more aggressive on fourth down. pic.twitter.com/Mar5kvCsiE

— Tyler Brooke (@TylerDBrooke) January 13, 2022

Of course it’s not enough just to go for it. Too often, Waldron’s playcalls on fourth down were predictable and therefore far more likely to fail. Mixing in more misdirection and bolder calls on fourth down should in theory help boost that awful success rate.

3. More two-point attempts

While it’s not nearly as bad, Carroll’s team is also lagging behind in the two-point attempts arms race. Brandon Staley’s Chargers are leading the way here, having successfully converted seven two-point attempts. Meanwhile, Seattle is near the bottom of the pile, averaging just 0.2 attempts per game.

Another often overlooked part of this is that extra point attempts are not the guaranteed easy money they used to be, especially for this team. Jason Myers missed three in 2021 and is only 90.2% for his career on those kicks.

It should be an obvious move to trust Seattle’s top skill player combo of Wilson/Metcalf/Lockett/Penny over an inconsistent placekicker in these situations.