Big Plays Spark Bulldogs Championship

NCAA National Championship – The Georgia Bulldogs are national champions for the first time since 1980, becoming just the fifth team to win the College Football Playoff since its inauguration in 2014. Georgia is now the fifth SEC team to win a national championship in this millennium. In fact, an SEC team has won 13 of the last 22 college football national championships. Alabama won six, LSU won three, Florida won two, and Auburn won one. Last night, Kirby Smart and Georgia added their names to the list, beating Nick Saban’s Alabama Crimson Tide 33-18 in Indianapolis.

The First Half

The game started slowly as Alabama drove 14 plays and used more than five minutes of game clock to kick a field goal before each team traded punts; Georgia’s first first down of the game came on its third drive, almost at the end of the first quarter. In the second quarter, Alabama added two field goals while Georgia tacked on one to send the game to 9-6 at the half. At the half, both teams had combined for 369 total yards, but 153 of those yards (41.4%) came on just three plays: a 52-yard Stetson Bennett prayer caught by George Pickens, a 61-yard Cameron Latu reception, and a 40-yard Bryce Young-to-Jameson Williams connection. The Pickens and Williams receptions both were underthrown balls with no significant yards after the catch, whereas the Latu play featured a 41-yard effort from the tight end after the catch. In fact, the effort Georgia defensive back Kelee Ringo made in bringing Latu down and saving a touchdown may have saved the game. Had Latu reached the end zone, Alabama would have gone up two possessions and the entire game script would have been flipped. Instead, Georgia’s defense bowed up in the red zone and Alabama came away with a field goal.

The first half would portend Alabama’s loss in a few key ways. First, Williams was injured on that 40-yard catch after catching the turf in an awkward and frankly hard-to-watch non-contact injury. Prior to the Jameson injury, Bryce Young was 9-of-14 for 104 yards (11.5 yards per completion). After Williams went out, Young went 26-of-43 for 265 total yards (10.2 yards per completion). The entire pass game changed as Alabama’s first option was out, which almost entirely lopped the head off of the Crimson Tide’s vertical offense. After Williams left the game, Young had only three passes go for more than 20 yards.

The second seed planted in the first half that would spell Alabama’s ultimate demise found its roots in finishing drives. The Crimson Tide created three quality possessions on six first-half drives (50.0% Eckel Rate compared to 63.9% season average, but a small sample). Alabama kicked field goals after first-and-10 at the Georgia 24, after first-and-10 at the Georgia 35, and after first-and-goal at the Georgia 8. That’s 3.00 points per Eckel, where Alabama averaged 5.06 all season. In the first half, Alabama was successful on none of its six red zone plays. In a game where Alabama was down 19-18 with eight minutes left, it’s hard not to play “what if?” about any one of those first-half scoring opportunities.

The Second Half

In the second half, Alabama’s failure to finish drives reared its head as the Crimson Tide marched from their own 2 to the Georgia 29, but failed to march any further. The Bulldogs blocked the ensuing field goal attempt, and a 67-yard James Cook run set up the night’s first touchdown and Georgia’s first lead of the game on the very next drive. Alabama would again drive and create another scoring opportunity, but a first-and-goal yet again turned into three points. Georgia’s Stetson Bennett fumbled—a call that, had Georgia lost, would be firmly enshrined in the Hall of Grievances in Athens—and gave Alabama the ball at the Bulldogs 16, and Young found Latu again for the Crimson Tide’s only touchdown of the game.

Down 18-13 with eight minutes of game time remaining, Georgia turned to the tried and true comeback strategy of “have your quarterback chuck the ball downfield and hope good things happen.” Bennett found Jermaine Burton for 18 yards, earned a pass interference on a busted Alabama coverage, and then chucked a prayer on a free play after an Alabama offside that Adonai Mitchell came down with in the end zone to take the lead. On Georgia’s final offensive drive, the Bulldogs ran six times for 32 yards, collected another pass interference, and then turned to tight end Brock Bowers in the red zone to pull ahead for good. Young threw an interception on Alabama’s last-chance drive, a heave on third-and-10 with 54 seconds remaining, and Ringo returned it for 79 yards and a touchdown to ice the game.

Defenses Stand Tall

Unlike the first matchup between these two teams, the defenses were the deciding factor in the National Championship Game. Georgia’s defense held Alabama to -0.14 EPA/play, despite the Crimson Tide averaging 0.17 on the season. The Bulldogs pressured Young on 27 of his 61 dropbacks (44.3%), and after Williams went out, the passing game fell apart. Aside from the Latu 41-yard catch-and-run, Young averaged just 8.2 yards per completion. Receivers Slade Bolden, Traeshon Holden, and Ja’Corey Brooks shouldered most of the load after Williams went out: the trio combined for 26 targets (49.1%) and 119 yards (32.2%). Williams led the team with 5.11 total EPA on just four targets and 65 yards, while Latu was the most productive receiver with 102 yards, 20.4 yards per reception, and 4.99 EPA. Overall, Young and the Crimson Tide averaged -0.02 EPA/pass, In the run game, Brian Robinson amassed 68 total yards and -1.80 total EPA. As a team, Alabama averaged -0.11 EPA/rush, marking the first time all season—and the first time in a long time—that Alabama averaged negative EPA on both sides of the ball.

The Georgia offense fared only slightly better than Alabama’s. The Bulldogs averaged -0.15 EPA/pass and 0.23 EPA/rush, but that rushing total is a bit misleading. Cook’s 67-yard run in the third quarter accounted for 4.46 total EPA; in the Bulldogs’ 24 other rushes, they amassed 1.33 total EPA, a more down-to-earth 0.06 EPA/rush. Bennett, awarded the game’s offensive MVP, averaged -0.15 EPA/play. He was sacked five times and had two turnover-worthy plays in addition to the costly fumble deep in his own territory. Bennett made a couple of throws when it counted, though, getting the ball in the correct zip code on two deep passes to set up scores. The 52-yard Pickens play might have haunted the Bulldogs had they lost the game; the Alabama blown coverage had Pickens wide open running full speed, and with a decent throw would have resulted in a touchdown instead of the field goal they eventually settled for.

this… should’ve been 6 pic.twitter.com/Y5YfNgBs3Z

— Secret Assistant to the Regional Head Coach (@statsowar) January 11, 2022

Bennett’s other big throw was the 40-yard touchdown to Mitchell, where Alabama jumped offsides and Bennett chucked it up. Mitchell may have pushed off, but again, there are worse strategies than tossing it up and letting your receivers make a play. Outside of those two passes, Bennett completed 60% of his passes for 132 total yards (8.8 yards per completion) and was successful on only 37.9% of the other 30 dropbacks. Georgia averaged a passing success rate of almost 50.0% coming into the game. Bowers and Mitchell led the Bulldogs with five and four targets, respectively, but Bennett failed to find anyone with much consistency. Both of Mitchell’s receptions were contested, and Bennett did not find Pickens again after that first-half big play.

Georgia’s second-half run game ultimately separated them from the Crimson Tide. Zamir White ran for 61 of his 84 total yards in the second half; James Cook for 73 of his 77. Georgia rushed for 23 total yards in the first half and 137 total yards in the second. 40.8% of Georgia’s rushing production came on one play, 4.5% of its total rush attempts. The Bulldogs forced seven missed tackles and had a 37.5% first-down rate on rushes. Credit the sustained rushing attack, as well, for taking 3:37 off the clock on Georgia’s final touchdown drive.

Toe Drags

It’s hard not to play “what-if” when focusing our attention on one game, but there were plenty of key moments that just might have changed the entire outcome of the game, specifically for Alabama.

• Injuries: Of course, John Metchie III was out for Alabama, and with Jameson Williams leaving early in the game, the Crimson Tide were down their top two receiving threats. Williams and Metchie accounted for 46.1% of Alabama’s total targets, 45.8% of total touchdowns, and 53.4% of total yards on the season. Their loss did not merely hurt the Crimson Tide; it gutted their offense entirely.
   
• Third Downs: Alabama converted nine of 20 third downs, a 45.0% conversion rate, almost eight full percentage points lower than its season average. Meanwhile, Georgia converted just four-of-12, a 33.3% conversion rate, more than 12 percentage points lower than its season average. The key for Georgia on third downs was simple: they just avoided them in the second half. In the first half, Georgia faced eight third downs and converted only three of them, including a meaningless run at the end of the half. In the second half, Georgia faced only four third downs. The Bulldogs only converted one of them, but the fact they avoided them was a key to their victory.
   
• Penalties: In many ways, this game could have gone substantially differently for both teams. For Georgia, 70 yards on 10 penalties made things a lot more difficult than they needed to be. In the first half, a delay of game turned a third-and-5 into a third-and-10; a hold brought a 30-yard kickoff return back to the Georgia 20; and a false start on the next play put the Bulldogs behind the sticks before things even got started. In the second half, an Alabama facemask gave Georgia a first-and-goal at the Alabama 1, and the Crimson Tide handed the Bulldogs 30 yards on its final two touchdown drives in pass interference calls.
   
• Drops: Alabama receivers had three drops, and all three came at inopportune times. Agiye Hall dropped one that would have at least given Alabama first-and-goal up 9-6 late in the third. Jahleel Billingsley dropped an extremely catchable target on first-and-10 and then slipped on a route to miss a wide-open ball on third-and-5, both of which would have given Alabama a first down inside the Georgia 15 on the first drive. Finally, Latu dropped a pass at the goal line and Alabama again settled for a field goal. Any of those four plays going differently has Alabama up by multiple possessions. Of course, such is the game.
   
• Going for Two: Contributing to The Discourse, it’s good to talk about three two-point conversion decisions. The first came when Alabama attempted a two-point conversion after scoring to go up 18-13 in the fourth quarter. This is perhaps the most obvious “go for it” decision of the night. A six-point lead compared to a five-point lead means that Georgia has to kick two field goals to tie, but it also means that Georgia can take the lead with a touchdown and an extra point. Alabama went for two and failed.
   
  The second decision was Georgia’s on the next drive after scoring a touchdown on four plays to go up 19-18. Kicking an extra point means that a field goal still beats you, whereas a two-point conversion means a field goal can only tie. Easy call.
   
  The third decision is what sparked the most ire, for some reason. Georgia scored again to go up 25-18, a seven-point lead. The argument for going for two here is that if you miss it, your opponent still has to score *and* convert a two-point try to beat you, so the downside of failing the attempt is small. On the flip side, if you convert it, you make it a two-possession game with 3:33 left in the fourth quarter. That argument, though, underestimates the value of eight points versus seven. While the emphasis on seven versus nine points is smart, the problem is that there are a limited number of possessions. What kicking the extra point does is guarantee that you cannot lose the game on a single possession. With 3:33 left on the clock, it’s a very real possibility that you do not get another possession. Therefore, kicking the extra point to ensure you cannot be beaten on one possession is a prudent move.

In all, Georgia’s offense averaged 2.36 points per drive to Alabama’s 1.50. The Crimson Tide had six quality possessions to Georgia’s five, but the Bulldogs scored touchdowns on two. Of note, Alabama’s only offensive touchdown came after a Bennett fumble gave them a 16-yard field. Aside from that short-field touchdown, Alabama scored just 12 points on 11 drives. The injuries took their toll on Alabama’s offense, certainly, but the Bulldogs defense came up big in the red zone and took advantage of their opponent to pull out the win. Alabama, to their credit, helped in the effort with some key untimely drops and a couple of blown coverages. Georgia breaks its national title drought and Nick Saban gets some bulletin board material for the offseason.