Why Joe Burrow’s Season May be Overrated

NFL Week 16 – Joe Burrow opened Boxing Day by dropping 525 yards and five touchdowns on the Ravens, and Dak Prescott closed it by torching Washington for 322 yards and four touchdowns in the first half. We were preparing to update our list of the greatest games ever, but as it turns out, neither was even the best game of the year; Prescott was only in fifth place this week. While the two quarterbacks won fantasy playoff games across the country, our statistics don’t give them as much credit for feasting on terrible pass defenses, which is exactly what they did on Sunday. In fact, it’s what Burrow has been doing all season.

There are other reasons Burrow and Prescott rank lower than you might expect—they also combined for 20 incomplete passes and a half-dozen sacks—but opponent adjustments are the biggest factor holding them down. The Ravens finished Sunday’s game with their top three corners and a starting safety out with injuries; they were 30th in pass defense DVOA going into Monday Night Football. They are allowing 8.2 yards per throw and 13.0 yards per completion, ranking last in the league in both categories, and next to last with an interception rate of 1.1%.

Meanwhile, about 90 minutes to the west, the Washington Football Team has had its own share of injuries and is also in the bottom six in pass defense DVOA. They have given up 33 touchdown passes, four more than any other team, and opposing quarterbacks have an NFL passer rating of 104.7, tied with the Jets for highest in the league.

Faced with such pathetic competition, Burrow loses 56 DYAR due to opponent adjustments, third-most of any passer this week; Prescott loses 26 and would have lost a lot more if he had not been pulled midway through the third quarter. For comparison’s sake, the best game of the year is currently Lamar Jackson’s 270-DYAR outing in Week 5, when he threw 442 yards and four touchdowns against an Indianapolis defense that currently ranks 13th in pass defense DVOA. The Colts have intercepted 17 passes, putting them in the top five in that department, and Jackson gets extra credit for playing well against such a stout unit.

We can do this same calculation for each signal-caller in each week of this season. And when we do, we find that Burrow has faced the softest pass defenses of any quarterback in 2021.

Easiest Schedules, QBs, 2021
Player	Team	Plays	DYAR	YAR	Difference
Joe Burrow	CIN	530	336	532	-196
Teddy Bridgewater	DEN	463	557	672	-115
Trevor Lawrence	JAX	575	-341	-226	-115
Tyrod Taylor	HOU	165	-233	-138	-95
Tua Tagovailoa	MIA	316	249	342	-93
Matthew Stafford	LAR	563	987	1,079	-91
Ryan Tannehill	TEN	532	-265	-174	-91
Jimmy Garoppolo	SF	438	792	852	-60
Mason Rudolph	PIT	58	-67	-11	-57
Gardner Minshew	PHI	30	55	108	-53
Through Week 16, not including Monday Night Football

Even though this is a counting stat, it is still susceptible to small-sample issues. Gardner Minshew has only had 30 pass plays this season (including sacks, intentional groundings, and defensive pass interference plays), and 28 of them came against the Jets, the worst team in pass defense DVOA. The other two came against Detroit, currently ranked 26th. The Eagles play Washington this week, and we have already discussed their sorry state, but they finish up the regular season against Dallas, now our top pass defense. Even just playing a quarter or a half against the Cowboys would radically alter Minshew’s opponent adjustments and drop him off the table. That would make room for Aaron Rodgers, who currently has 1,252 DYAR and 1,304 YAR, a difference of -52.

Getting back to Burrow: He has now thrown 84 passes against the Ravens this year, and they are directly responsible for seven of his 30 touchdowns through the air. He has also thrown 40-plus passes against the Steelers (in two games), Chargers, and Browns, all of whom are in the bottom half of the league in pass defense DVOA. In fact, Burrow has only played two games against teams in the upper half of those rankings: the 10th-place Vikings and 12th-place Packers. He completed better than 70% of his passes and averaged 8.3 yards per throw in those two games, with four touchdowns and two interceptions, though he was sacked eight times. Cincinnati beat Minnesota by a field goal but lost to Green Bay by the same margin. Meanwhile, he has played four games against our bottom three pass defenses: the Jaguars, the Jets, and the Ravens twice. Burrow topped 10.0 yards per throw against those four with a dozen touchdowns and only two interceptions. The Bengals went 3-1, somehow losing to Mike White and the Jets.

Cincinnati travels to Kansas City this Sunday to play a Chiefs team ranked 14th against the pass (but trending sharply upwards), then hosts the Browns (19th but with wildly erratic outliers) in Week 18. Expect a lot of fireworks from Burrow in both contests, and in the playoffs should the Cincinnati qualify. Burrow has certainly made things happen for the Bengals—he currently leads the league in both completion rate (69.9%) and average yards per throw (8.7). Unfortunately, he has made things happen for Bengals opponents too—he also leads the league in interceptions thrown (14) and sacks taken (47). If Burrow was prone to mistakes like that against Baltimore and Jacksonville, it’s a little unsettling to think about what he might do against Buffalo or New England.

By the way, you’ll note that the top five easiest schedules belong to quarterbacks in the AFC. This is not a coincidence. Six of the top eight teams in pass defense DVOA—the Cowboys, Buccaneers, Cardinals, Saints, Rams, and Panthers—play in the NFC. (You’ll also note that four of the top five quarterbacks here have first names that begin with the letter “T.” This is a coincidence, but it’s fun.)

And now for the flip side of the equation, the quarterbacks with the most difficult schedules so far:

Hardest Schedules, QBs, 2021
Player	Team	Plays	DYAR	YAR	Difference
Taylor Heinicke	WAS	477	254	100	154
Tom Brady	TB	662	1,509	1,369	140
Mike White	NYJ	137	161	64	98
Patrick Mahomes	KC	609	1,067	988	78
Jared Goff	DET	500	121	47	74
Davis Mills	HOU	358	22	-51	73
Mike Glennon	NYG	160	-269	-338	69
Justin Herbert	LAC	614	1,167	1,105	62
Tyler Huntley	BAL	137	44	-16	60
Josh Allen	BUF	606	862	806	56
Through Week 16, not including Monday Night Football

Hey, more “T” names. Taylor Heinicke is on top less because of the games he has played and more because of the portions of games he has missed. He only threw 15 passes against the Chargers (23rd-ranked pass defense) in Week 1 and missed the Week 15 game against Philadelphia (21st) entirely. Give him eight full quarters against those teams and there’s a good chance he falls to second place. But missing that Eagles game means his last two performances both came against Dallas, the best pass defense in the NFL. Heinicke had completed 67.9% of his passes through Week 13, but he only completed 38.3% of his 47 throws against the Cowboys this year. He has also had the misfortune to play Buffalo, Carolina, New Orleans, and Tampa Bay this season. He closes the year against Philadelphia (21st) and the Giants (16th).

Heinicke is followed here by Tom Brady, and some of you may be aware of this, but Tom Brady plays football very, very well. His 422 completions, 4,580 yards, and 37 touchdowns are all tops in the league this year, and his 3.1% sack rate is lowest among qualifiers. And he has done that while playing games against Dallas, Buffalo, New England, New Orleans (twice), the L.A. Rams, and Carolina, all of whom rank eighth or better in pass defense DVOA. He has only played two games against bottom-10 pass defenses, both against Atlanta (he threw nine touchdowns with one interception). He gets a third such game against the Jets this Sunday, but then he finishes with Carolina again in Week 18.

Davis Mills’ appearance here is interesting because his teammate Tyrod Taylor qualified for the list of easy schedules. Taylor has thrown 150 passes this season, and 59 of them came against the Jets and Jaguars, the NFL’s worst pass defenses; four of his five touchdown passes this year came in those two games. The best pass defense he played against was ninth-place Tennessee. Mills, on the other hand, has started games against Buffalo, New England, Arizona, and Carolina, all of whom rank eighth or better. Mills’ raw numbers are superior to Taylor’s anyway, and when you consider the caliber of competition each has faced … well, Houston’s choice to bench a healthy Taylor for Mills this month may be the first smart decision they have made all year. Mills will play at San Francisco on Sunday, then against Tennessee in Week 18, and whether he plays at all in 2022 will largely hinge on what happens in those games.

Quarterbacks
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Sacks	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR	Opp
1.	Joe Burrow	CIN	37/46	525	5	0	3	239	232	7	BAL
Burrow was nearly perfect on his own side of the field, going 19-of-20 for 335 yards. Fourteen of those completions went for first downs, including a touchdown. As you might guess, he led all quarterbacks in DYAR on deep balls, going 4-of-6 for 189 yards and a touchdown.
2.	Josh Allen	BUF	30/47	314	3	0	0	229	218	10	NE
Allen gains a league-high 61 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. He was the week’s best passer on third/fourth downs, going 9-of-14 for 98 yards and two touchdowns. He was also tops on throws down the middle, going 11-of-13 for 133 yards and a score.
3.	Davis Mills	HOU	21/27	254	2	0	1	166	166	0	LAC
Mills was the week’s best passer on throws to the right, going 10-of-12 for 172 yards and two touchdowns, plus a 24-yard DPI.
4.	Carson Wentz	IND	18/28	225	2	0	2	149	146	3	ARI
Wentz, on the other hand, was the top passer on throws to the left, going 11-of-15 for 150 yards and two scores, plus a 12-yard DPI. He was also excellent on third/fourth downs, going 7-of-11 for 96 yards with two touchdowns and a sack.
5.	Dak Prescott	DAL	28/39	330	4	0	3	148	152	-4	WAS
Prescott’s DYAR honestly would have been better if he had just sat down at halftime. He was first by a mile in first-quarter DYAR and second behind Burrow in the second quarter, but actually had negative DYAR in the second half, going 1-of-4 for 8 yards with a sack. He still finished as the week’s top passer in the red zone (8-of-10 for 65 yards and four touchdowns) and out of a no-huddle (11-of-14 for 184 yards).
6.	Patrick Mahomes	KC	23/30	258	3	0	2	142	142	0	PIT
Mahomes didn’t have to throw deep to get good results. He completed all seven of his passes to receivers at or behind the line of scrimmage, picking up 49 yards and a touchdown in the process.
7.	Tom Brady	TB	18/30	232	1	0	0	119	113	6	CAR
Brady has thrown 173 passes down the middle this season, most in the league, but he only threw two against Carolina, one in the second quarter and one in the third. Both were thrown from the Carolina 4-yard line; the first was completed for a touchdown, the second was incomplete. Weird.
8.	Justin Herbert	LAC	27/35	336	1	2	1	101	109	-8	HOU
Herbert led all quarterbacks this week with a 75% success rate on passing plays. He was the week’s best passer on throws to running backs, completing nine of his 10 passes for 112 yards.
9.	Aaron Rodgers	GB	24/34	202	3	0	0	73	73	0	CLE
Rodgers led all quarterbacks with a dozen failed completions.
10.	Kyler Murray	ARI	28/43	245	1	0	0	72	49	23	IND
Murray’s rushing numbers: four carries for 74 yards. He did not have a good day on third/fourth downs, going 5-of-11 for 67 yards with four conversions, plus an intentional grounding for a safety.
11.	Josh Johnson	BAL	28/40	304	2	1	1	59	101	-42	CIN
Johnson’s rushing numbers: five carries for 6 yards. None of those carries gained first downs, even though four of them came with 5 yards or less to go for a first down. Two of them resulted in fumbles. For the record, the worst quarterback rushing day in our database is a four-carry, zero-yard day by Drew Bledsoe against Pittsburgh in 1993.
12.	Matt Ryan	ATL	18/24	215	1	0	3	58	62	-4	DET
Ryan was the week’s best passer on throws to tight ends. He completed all eight of the passes he threw to Kyle Pitts and Hayden Hurst for a total of 123 yards and a touchdown.
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Sacks	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR	Opp
13.	Tua Tagovailoa	MIA	19/26	198	1	1	2	48	53	-5	NO
14.	Kyle Allen	WAS	8/10	67	0	0	1	45	45	0	DAL
All of Allen’s passes were thrown with Washington down 56-7 in the fourth quarter.
15.	Jalen Hurts	PHI	17/29	199	2	0	1	41	45	-5	NYG
Here’s a brief picture of the rollercoaster Hurts took Eagles fans on against New York: he was the week’s worst passer in the first quarter (3-of-10 for 11 yards, zero first downs, one sack-fumble), but the best passer in the third (8-of-9 for 90 yards and a touchdown).
16.	Nick Foles	CHI	24/35	250	1	0	4	35	36	-1	SEA
Foles was almost flawless on throws down the middle, going 8-of-9 for 99 yards.
17.	Ryan Tannehill	TEN	22/29	209	1	0	4	34	32	2	SF
Tannehill’s average dropback came with a league-high 10.8 yards to go for a first down. He had 10 dropbacks with more than 10 yards to go, going 6-of-9 for 94 yards with three first downs (including a 42-yard gain on third-and-23!) and one sack.
18.	Jimmy Garoppolo	SF	26/35	322	1	2	2	29	26	3	TEN
Garoppolo was the week’s worst passer in the red zone. His three plays inside the Tennessee 20: an interception on second-and-goal from the 8; a completion for a loss of 2 on second-and-9; and a touchdown pass on second-and-goal from the 2.
19.	Kirk Cousins	MIN	27/37	315	1	1	3	26	36	-11	LAR
The good news for Cousins: he was the week’s best passer from under center, completing all nine of his passes for 144 yards while taking one sack. The bad news for Cousins: from his last pass of the first quarter to halftime, he failed to throw for a single first down, going 5-of-10 for 25 yards with an interception and a sack.
20.	Trevor Lawrence	JAX	26/38	280	0	0	1	25	40	-15	NYJ
Lawrence loses 63 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. He had a big day on deep balls, going 7-of-11 for 138 yards, plus a pair of DPIs for 50 more yards.
21.	Russell Wilson	SEA	16/27	181	2	0	2	25	24	1	CHI
Wilson’s last pass of the third quarter was a 24-yard touchdown to Gerald Everett that put the Seahawks up 24-14. They ended up losing 25-24 in part because he threw for just one first down in the fourth quarter, going 4-of-8 for 25 yards and a sack.
22.	Zach Wilson	NYJ	14/22	102	1	0	1	8	-32	40	JAX
Wilson’s rushing numbers: four carries for 91 yards and a touchdown. His average dropback came with a league-low 6.6 yards to go for a first down. That’s partly why his average pass traveled just 4.6 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, least of any quarterback this week. He was not effective inside the Jacksonville 40-yard line, going 6-of-10 for 22 yards with a sack. Only one of those completions—a 1-yard touchdown on fourth-and-goal—picked up a first down.
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Sacks	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR	Opp
23.	Derek Carr	LV	20/25	201	1	1	2	1	-1	3	DEN
The easiest throws in the game were difficult for Carr against Denver. He threw five passes to running backs, completing two of them (a 5-yard loss on second-and-10, then a 5-yard gain on the ensuing third-and-15) with an interception. And on throws to receivers at or behind the line of scrimmage, he went 4-of-6 for 6 yards with a pick.
24.	Mac Jones	NE	14/32	145	0	2	1	-11	-8	-3	BUF
Jones gains 53 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. He had a rough night on third/fourth downs, going 5-of-10 for 52 yards with three conversions, an interception, and a sack.
25.	Drew Lock	DEN	15/22	153	0	0	2	-13	-16	3	LV
Lock’s average pass traveled 11.6 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, most of any quarterback this week. Specifically, his magic range came 13 to 20 yards downfield, where he completed all five of his passes for 103 yards and also picked up a 16-yard DPI. He failed to pick up a single first down on anything shallower (10-of-13 for 50 yards) or deeper (0-for-4).
26.	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	23/35	159	1	1	2	-31	-31	0	KC
Roethlisberger was the week’s worst quarterback from under center, and he did it in only three plays, all on first-and-10: an interception, a 5-yard completion, and a 13-yard sack that ended in a lost fumble.
27.	Sam Darnold	CAR	15/32	190	0	0	4	-52	-57	5	TB
Panthers QB rotation report: Darnold had no dropbacks in the first quarter, seven in the second, five in the third, and 24 in the fourth. Most of those 24 dropbacks went badly as he was the week’s worst fourth-quarter passer, going 9-of-21 for 73 yards with three sacks and a fumble. He was also worst inside the opponents’ 40, where he went 3-of-9 for 21 yards with two sacks, one fumble, no touchdowns, and only one first down.
28.	Mike Glennon	NYG	17/27	93	1	1	0	-60	-62	2	PHI
All of Glennon’s passes came with the Giants down by at least 17 points in the second half. His average completion gained 1.9 yards after the catch, least of any qualifier. And it’s not because he was constantly lobbing bombs downfield—he threw only one deep ball, and it was incomplete. He finished last in DYAR on throws to the left, going 10-of-15 for 46 yards with a pick-six.
29.	Baker Mayfield	CLE	21/36	222	2	4	5	-66	-69	4	GB
Mayfield had a rotten day on deep balls. He threw six of them against Green Bay, completing more of them to Packers defenders (two) than to his own teammates (one, for only 16 yards).
30.	Tim Boyle	DET	24/34	187	1	1	0	-71	-71	0	ATL
Boyle loses 57 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. In a game the Lions lost by four points, Boyle made five trips to the red zone, going 4-of-8 for 40 yards with one touchdown and one interception.
31.	Matthew Stafford	LAR	21/37	197	1	3	0	-73	-79	6	MIN
Stafford was great at the end of of this game, but lousy at the beginning and dirt-terrible in the middle. He had negative DYAR in the first quarter, and then he was the week’s worst passer in the second AND third quarters. In those 30 terrible minutes, he went 11-of-22 for 81 yards with three interceptions.
32.	Cam Newton	CAR	7/13	61	0	1	3	-85	-91	6	TB
Panthers QB rotation report: Newton had 12 dropbacks or runs in the first quarter, 2 in the second, seven in the third, and none in the fourth. He was the week’s worst passer on third downs (well, before Monday night…), going 2-of-4 for 25 yards with two sacks and an interception.
33.	Taylor Heinicke	WAS	7/22	121	1	2	4	-95	-95	0	DAL
Heinicke gains 44 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. His average completion gained 10.1 yards after the catch, most of any qualifier. He struggled on third/fourth downs, going 2-of-9 for 10 yards with one conversion (an 8-yard touchdown) and a pick-six.
34.	Jake Fromm	NYG	6/17	25	0	1	2	-166	-167	1	PHI
Fromm’s last pass was thrown with over 10 minutes left in the third quarter … and he was still the league’s worst passer in the second half, when he went 1-of-2 for 7 yards with a sack and an interception. He was also worst on throws down the middle (0-for-2 with an interception) and on throws to wide receivers (3-of-13 for 23 yards with a pick). He was successful on a league-worst 16% of his passing plays.
35.	Ian Book	NO	12/20	135	0	2	8	-204	-199	-4	MIA
Book failed to throw for a single third-/fourth-down conversion, going 2-of-7 for 10 yards with two interceptions and four sacks. He did pick up a fourth-and-1 conversion with a 3-yard gain on a quarterback sneak.

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total)
Rk	Player	Team	Runs	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR	Opp
1.	Justin Jackson	LAC	11	64	2	8/9	98	0	66	14	52	HOU
Jackson was stuffed just once and had 9- and 17-yard touchdown runs against Houston, but he only ran for one other first down and also lost a fumble. Four of his catches gained at least 10 yards and a first down, the longest a 25-yarder.
2.	Nick Chubb	CLE	17	126	1	3/4	58	0	63	37	27	GB
Each of Chubb’s 17 runs gained at least one yard, seven produced first downs, and five gained 10-plus yards, the longest a gain of 27. Three of his catches also produced first downs, the longest a gain of 40 yards.
3.	Damien Harris	NE	18	103	3	0/0	0	0	61	61	0	BUF
Harris ran for eight first downs against Buffalo, including gains of 12, 16, and 31 yards, while being stuffed three times.
4.	Joe Mixon	CIN	18	65	1	6/6	70	1	36	16	19	BAL
Mixon only ran for three first downs against Baltimore, and two of them were 1-yard gains, but he was stuffed just once and had a long run of 19 yards. His best catches were a 9-yard touchdown and a 52-yard gain (which was caught 48 yards downfield!) on third-and-4.
5.	Rashaad Penny	SEA	17	135	1	0/1	0	0	35	40	-5	CHI
Penny ripped off gains of 25, 32, and 32 yards against Chicago, plus a 3-yard touchdown, while being stuffed just once.

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk	Player	Team	Runs	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR	Opp
1.	Damien Harris	NE	18	103	3	0/0	0	0	61	61	0	BUF
2.	Rashaad Penny	SEA	17	135	1	0/1	0	0	35	40	-5	CHI
3.	Nick Chubb	CLE	17	126	1	3/4	58	0	63	37	27	GB
4.	Michael Carter	NYJ	16	118	0	2/3	6	0	25	34	-9	JAX
The Jaguars only stuffed Carter once. He ran for five first downs and four runs of 10 yards or more, the longest a gain of 38.
5.	Rex Burkhead	HOU	22	149	2	2/2	0	0	32	28	4	LAC
Every one of Burkhead’s 22 carries gained at least 1 yard and he picked up eight first downs, including gains of 14, 15, 25, and 36 yards.

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total)
Rk	Player	Team	Runs	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR	Opp
1.	Saquon Barkley	NYG	15	32	0	1/1	-4	0	-32	-21	-11	PHI
Barkley only ran for one first down against the Eagles, his longest carry gained just 7 yards, and he was stuffed for no gain or a loss five times. His one catch was a 4-yard loss on second-and-9.

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk	Player	Team	Runs	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR	Opp
1.	Royce Freeman	HOU	12	34	0	0/0	0	0	-31	-31	0	LAC
Freeman ran for one first down against the Chargers while being stuffed once. He loses 13 DYAR due to opponent adjustments.

Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR
Rk	Player	Team	Rec	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Total DYAR	Opp
1.	Tee Higgins	CIN	12	13	194	16.2	2	103	BAL
Every one of Higgins’ catches picked up a first down, including a 20-yard gain on third-and-18 and a 52-yard gain on third-and-16.
2.	Isaiah McKenzie	BUF	11	12	125	11.4	1	66	NE
McKenzie’s totals include -3 DYAR rushing for his one carry, a 1-yard loss. Eight of his 11 catches picked up first downs, including four third-/fourth-down conversions.
3.	Davante Adams	GB	10	13	114	11.4	2	56	CLE
Adams picked up seven first downs through the air, the longest a gain of 33 yards.
4.	Byron Pringle	KC	6	7	75	12.5	2	49	PIT
Five of Pringle’s catches produced first downs, the longest a gain of 22.
5.	Ja’Marr Chase	CIN	7	10	125	17.9	0	48	BAL
Each of Chase’s catches picked up at least 14 yards and a first down, the longest a gain of 22 yards.

Worst Wide Receiver or Tight End by DYAR
Rk	Player	Team	Rec	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Total DYAR	Opp
1.	Cedrick Wilson	DAL	2	3	10	5.0	0	-44	WAS
Three targets: 6-yard gain and a fumble on third-and-16; 4-yard gain on first-and-10; incompletion on third-and-2.