NFL Week 16 best bets: 49ers vs. Titans among…

New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones throws against the Indianapolis Colts on Saturday.

(Aaron Doster / Associated Press)

The rematch should have tamer weather conditions than what we saw in the first meeting just a few weeks ago between the Bills and Patriots. New England won 14-10 in a game played during a major winter storm, but the weather obscured the real story of that matchup.

The Bills knew that the run was coming and still could not stop it. Patriots quarterback Mac Jones had three pass attempts in the game. New England ran the ball 46 times for 222 yards. While it is true that the Patriots had a 64-yard touchdown run in there, it is worth noting that the Buffalo defensive numbers are propped up by playing a very weak schedule. The Chiefs, Buccaneers, Titans (with Henry), Patriots, Colts and Panthers all ran for at least 120 yards on the Bills defense. The teams that Buffalo has held under 120 yards are the Jaguars, Washington, Steelers, Dolphins twice, Jets, Texans and Saints. None of those teams run the football effectively.

Buffalo’s offense still has all sorts of problems. They just managed 4.8 yards per play against Carolina, as Josh Allen was just 19 of 34 passing. Something is off with the Bills. The Patriots are in a bounce back spot after a rare bad game against the Colts. Expect this line to go up as the week moves along.

Pick: Patriots -1 1/2