Patriots’ Next Test; Ravens’ Last Stand

NFL Week 15 – Welcome to the Walkthrough’s Bowl Mania Week, where NFL games start to look a lot like late-December sponsored-by-obscure-companies college bowl games!

Also, welcome to the NFL’s latest COVID surge. We took a few predictions off the board for our sanity. Making a prediction on Friday morning for a Sunday game in which a dozen starters on either side might be unavailable is neither fun nor great content.

New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts, Saturday, 8:20 p.m.

The Walkthrough Quarterback Skepticism-Bordering-on-Denialism Bowl

Either we push pause on the Bradyfication of Mac Jones for a week or Carson Wentz once again proves incapable of beating a quality opponent. Either way, Walkthrough’s grimy little insecurities get to eat a W!

(Now watch as Jones and Wentz combine for eight touchdowns in a 45-42 barnburner.)

Walkthrough has a favorite mantra: If you want to make a bad quarterback look good, give him the lead and great field position. Sam Darnold illustrated this phenomenon neatly at the start of the season: he looked like Tom Brady while the Panthers literally never trailed through the first three games, then turned back into Darnold the moment the Panthers began playing from behind.

So naturally we went looking through Jones’ splits in search of distortions. After all, the Patriots have been playing with a lead—give or take a few early-game one-score deficits—non-stop since Week 9.

It turns out that the Jones distortions exist but aren’t nearly as strong as Walkthrough hoped expected.

Here are Mac Jones’ splits when leading and trailing this season:

Leading: 151 attempts, 8.2 yards per attempt, 72.9% completion rate, 7 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, a 104.2 passer rating.

Trailing: 188 attempts, 7.2 yards per attempt, 67.6% completion rate, 7 touchdowns, 5 interceptions, an 89.6 passer rating.

These splits aren’t that extreme: We expected Jones to have only thrown 50 passes while trailing or something. The average quarterback attempts about 55% of his passes while trailing, so Jones’ 49% of passes (he has thrown 45 passes with the score tied) doesn’t distort his data all that much. Also, Jones’ numbers when trailing are not catastrophic; after all, he kept the Patriots in the games against the Cowboys and Buccaneers earlier in the year.

The field-position distortions are also subtle and far from damning. Jones has thrown only 20 passes inside his own 20-yard line this season. He has thrown 49% of his passes in opponents’ territory. The NFL average for passes in opponents’ territory is 43%. Jones is getting a boost from a nearly ideal situation in New England, but there doesn’t appear to be a Darnold lurking in the shadows, waiting to wilt after a punt that’s downed at the 5-yard line when trailing by 10.

(Before anyone mentions the 90-yard drives against the Browns: the Patriots mostly ran the ball early in those drives to escape terrible field position. The fact that the Patriots were able to move from their own 1-yard line to the 28 on three handoffs against a decent opponent illustrates our point about situational distortions.)

Carson Wentz has also enjoyed some favorable splits this year: he has thrown just over 32% of his passes while trailing, a very low percentage for the quarterback of a .500-ish team, and is averaging just 6.8 yards per attempt when playing from behind. But while it’s easy to imagine Jones leading the Patriots to victory in another Handoff Spectacular, it’s nearly impossible to imagine Wentz avoiding flamboyant and hilarious turnovers for four quarters against the Patriots defense. And if you think the Colts can win by matching their gropo tactics, take another look at the Patriots-Browns game.

This is the one of the last Patriots tests before the playoffs. They’re gonna ace it. Patriots 26, Colts 17.

Las Vegas Raiders at Cleveland Browns, Saturday, 4:30 p.m.

Special Teams Coordinator as Interim Head Coach Bowl

The Browns want to deliver a knockout blow to the Raiders. Walkthrough wants the Browns to deliver a knockout blow to the Raiders. Deep down in a secret corner of their hearts, the Raiders want the Browns to deliver a knockout blow to the Raiders so they can turn the page on a season of off-field scandal and shame.

COVID has other plans, unfortunately. Case Keenum is expected to start for Baker Mayfield, while special teams coordinator Mike Preifer is likely to coach in place of quarantined Kevin Stefanski. Lots of other Browns were in various states of protocol at press time.

The Raiders gave up a fumble for a touchdown on their opening play last week, then nearly fumbled away the ensuing kickoff, then didn’t bother blocking or tackling very much for the rest of their blowout loss to the Chiefs. Maybe they can deliver a knockout blow to themselves and save us all the trouble of taking them seriously for the next three weeks. The AFC has proven over and over again this season that it’s not going to roll that way. Off the Board.

Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos, Sunday, 4:05 p.m.

AFC Wild-Card Quintuple Elimination Bowl

How this game will go…

• The Bengals win the pregame toss of their Harvey Dent coin and elect to play like garbage in the first half.
   
• Opening kickoff bounces off Bengals return man’s chest. Broncos score a touchdown on five straight off-tackle runs.
   
• Ensuing kickoff bounces off Bengals’ return man’s facemask. Broncos score a touchdown on six straight off-tackle runs.
   
• Broncos are forced to occasionally throw downfield to sustain drives. Three-and-outs ensue.
   
• Having deferred playing well until the second half, the Bengals morph into the 1992 Cowboys after halftime. Joe Burrow throws touchdown passes to Ja’Marr Chase on three consecutive series.
   
• The Broncos realize that they have beaten the Cowboys and Chargers but lost to the Eagles and Steelers this year. “We can be inconsistent too!” they cry. “We’re just rather dull while doing so!” They score a touchdown to tie the game, though not in a very interesting way.
   
• One or the other team wins in overtime.
   
• Analysts nod and say, Well, that proves the winning team is a legit contender while the losing team is all but eliminated from the playoffs.
   
• Neither team is a legit contender, neither is all but eliminated from the playoffs, and both play a variation on the same type of game next week.

With Bengals cornerback Chidi Awuzie on the COVID list and tackle Riley Reiff also out, this looks like another opportunity for the Broncos to stagger onward. Broncos 24, Bengals 22.

Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers, Sunday, 1 p.m.

We Swear We Are Still Relevant Bowl

The Steelers, and perhaps only the Steelers, got some encouraging injury/availability news in Week 15. While T.J. Watt remains limited in practice, the team expects him to be on the field on Sunday. Alex Highsmith should also be back after getting knocked out of the Vikings game. Same with Joe Haden, who has been in and out of the lineup all season. Short of Chase Claypool dancing all night at The Crimson Omicron before rolling into work and licking all the doorknobs at team headquarters, the Steelers should be at what passes for full strength for them these days.

As for the Titans: Julio Jones is back, A.J. Brown is not scheduled to return for another week, and Golden Tate, signed weeks ago to quell the skill-position emergency, is apparently still working his way into shape. When the Titans traded for Julio, it looked like an “all in for the Super Bowl” move. It has now become a “save our playoff hopes” move.

It’s exhaustingly challenging to try to emotionally invest in either of these teams. But Walkthrough smells a Steelers upset, and the Titans (-1) spread suggests that lots of other folks do, too. Steelers 22, Titans 20.

Green Bay Packers at Baltimore Ravens, Sunday, 4:25 p.m.

Alternate Reality Where Everyone is Healthy Super Bowl Preview Bowl

Gosh, this game looked great on paper when the schedule came out.

Lamar Jackson is day-to-day with an ankle injury. The Ravens signed Josh Johnson, fresh from his stint with the Jets, to back up Tyler Huntley. What’s left of the Ravens offense now ranks 27th in first quarters, improving to 17th, 11th, and eighth overall by the fourth quarter. That’s a formula for disaster against quality opponents, and those rankings are still influenced by their early-season success.

The Ravens rank first in the NFL in special teams, now and forever, while the Packers fell to dead last after making Jakeem Grant and Khalil Herbert look like Devin Hester and Gale Sayers on Sunday night. (Also, the Chargers have found a decent kicker and return man). The Packers may use starters such as Rasul Douglas and Allen Lazard on special teams to firm up units which have been ravaged by injuries. They should also consider never punting or settling for field goals in this game (Mason Crosby has aged 20 years in the last few months), because if the Packers can mount an early lead, the Ravens may eventually just run out of players. Packers 31, Ravens 22.

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sunday, 8:20 p.m.

Saints Last Stand Bowl

The Saints are reasonably healthy by both their standards and Week 15 standards. They beat the Buccaneers despite losing Jameis Winston on Halloween. And they have a 22.7% chance of reaching the playoffs that will climb much higher with a win, because they face the Dolphins, Panthers, and Falcons to wrap the season. The Saints are also an option-flavored team facing an opponent that struggled to stop the Bills’ option-flavored tactics in the second half last week.

Unfortunately, option-flavored tactics are much easier to stop when your safeties have no reason whatsoever to respect the deep pass. So this game will play out like last week’s Buccaneers-Bills game: the Taysom Hill Experience will be unable to move the ball before halftime, Tom Brady will probe the Saints defense until he finds its ever-softening soft spots, and Taysom’s gutsy fourth-quarter comeback will only impress Sean Payton and the producers of weird Sean Payton streaming-service biopics. Buccaneers 27, Saints 22.

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday, 1 p.m.

Hostile Workplace Environment Bowl

Walkthrough has been around the block a few times in our three-plus decades in the workforce. We have worked for bosses who don’t bother learning anyone’s names, bosses who checked out early for happy hour at McGropesy’s, bosses who blamed subordinates for everything that went wrong, and bosses who thought nothing of berating and belittling their staff (though not outright kicking them; that’s a new one). But we have never encountered or even heard of a boss who did all of those things within the span of four months.

Urban Meyer was an American Original, and Walkthrough’s gonna miss him.

The Texans, meanwhile, are coached by the factotums put in place by a judgmental micromanager with an agenda that runs tangential to the company’s goals and appears far more focused upon who participates enthusiastically in weekly self-improvement seminars than who is actually accomplishing anything. If Jack Easterby and Urban Meyer ever worked for the same franchise … well, the mind reels at the very thought.

The line for this game hit Jaguars (-4.5) on Thursday: the house is bracing for a Jaguars New Boss Bump. So Walkthrough is playing the Jaguars moneyline AND the Over at 39.5 in a +180 same-game parlay. Bring on some silly Sun Belt Fun Belt action! Jaguars 26, Texans 20.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants, Sunday, 1 p.m.

Whichever Bowl Pits a Power Conference Runner-Up Versus a Service Academy Strictly for the Television Ratings Bowl

The Cowboys have won eight of their last nine meetings with the Giants, dating back to 2017, including a 44-20 thumping in October. The only Giants win in that span was the infamous season finale last year: both the Cowboys and Giants finished the year 6-10 but the Eagles “robbed” the Giants of the saddest division title in history by inserting Nate Sudfeld at quarterback and surrendering against Washington. The last time the Giants beat the Cowboys before that, Eli Manning was their quarterback, Dak Prescott was a rookie, and Dez Bryant and Jason Witten were his go-to receivers.

Walkthrough covered the Giants on Wednesday. Games like this appear close in our minds because we expect the Cowboys to trip over their own feet at least once down the stretch, while the Giants are addicted to late-season upsets that convince them to quadruple down on past mistakes for another year. Rest assured that the Cowboys can make undreamt-of mistakes, while the Giants can play with all the pride they have left, and the Cowboys will still win by more than a touchdown. Cowboys 34, Giants 16.

Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers, Sunday, 4:05 p.m.

Kyle Shanahan Validation Bowl

Last week, the 49ers faced a team that could neither field kickoffs nor punts cleanly, spotted them a (ridiculous) taunting penalty on a third-down stop to reignite a stalled drive, missed a 46-yard field goal, and couldn’t get out of its own way on offense until the fourth quarter. Yet the 49ers still needed overtime to come away with a win. Kyle Shanahan strangely forgot about all of the misdirection and pulling-guard concepts that have worked for the 49ers since October while protecting a two-score lead and instead decided to highlight the talents of his … um … decisive, rifle-armed dropback passer. As a result, Jimmy Garoppolo fumbled untouched in the pocket while nursing a fourth-quarter lead and nearly threw a returnable interception into the middle of the field while trying to drive for a late-game score the 49ers really shouldn’t have needed. Only George Kittle’s ability to leap 10 feet into the air at a 45-degree angle with the ground to haul in a pass saved the 49ers in the end.

So yes, the 49ers are a playoff-worthy team, but only because worthiness ain’t quite what it used to be.

The Falcons remain mathematically alive for the playoffs, but fortunately for the republic, they don’t get to face the Panthers three more times. That’s a right reserved for Tom Brady. 49ers 28, Falcons 20.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears, Monday, 8:15 p.m.

More Like a Dreary October Big Ten Also-Ran Matchup Than a Bowl Game Bowl

How this game will go:

• The Vikings will dominate the line of scrimmage on defense and hold their own on offense.
   
• They will settle for five field goal attempts, missing at least one, as well as one extra point.
   
• They will mismanage the clock and field position on both sides of the ball in the last two minutes of the half and in the fourth quarter.
   
• Justin Fields will throw a touchdown, then a pick-six, then a touchdown, then get strip-sacked setting up a Vikings touchdown, with the Bears returning the ensuing kickoff for a touchdown.
   
• The Vikings will stop a last-minute Bears touchdown drive to win by four points.
   
• Rational individuals will interpret the Vikings’ string of one-score games to mean that the team is one setback away from becoming the Falcons and really needs to get serious about rebuilding.
   
• The Vikings will interpret their string of one-scores games to mean that the team is one or two breaks away from becoming the Patriots and extend every in-house contract through 2027. Vikings 30, Bears 26.

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams, Sunday, 4:25 p.m.

Do you hear what we hear? It’s a song, a song, high above the trees, with a voice as big as the seas: the Seahawks’ swelling rationalizations for the 2021 season! We went 1-3 when Russell Wilson was out or limited. We lost four games by three points or less. We came on strong late in the season!

Rationalizations like these can overwhelm an organization with an established coach/quarterback/general manager combo. They want to believe. They want to snuggle comfortably into their ever-deepening rut.

The Rams can do the Seahawks a real favor by building on Monday night’s success. Unfortunately, a COVID outbreak closed the team facility for several days this week and could leave them shorthanded on Sunday. There’s a good chance that the Seahawks smoke a team without some combination of Jalen Ramsey, Odell Beckham, and others on short rest. That’s how rationalizations turn into delusions. Off the Board.

Washington Football Team at Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday, 1 p.m.

Washington caught a few breaks on the injury front this week. Taylor Heinicke only suffered a minor injury in the Week 14 loss to the Cowboys, while Terry McLaurin is in the concussion protocol; both situations looked graver last Sunday.

Unfortunately, Washington is yet another team caught in a massive COVID crunch. They are still on pace to go 1-3 during their Cowboys-Eagles club sandwich, and this looks like their second loss.

Here in Eagles country, folks appear to be too tired to drum up a Jalen Hurts/MinshewMania controversy. But have faith in the local sports talk military industrial complex! Such controversies are marathons, not sprints, and the most successful ones (from a listener/reader engagement standpoint, not a football standpoint) are tales of the starter’s failure, not the backup’s success. Just give us a slow start by Hurts on Sunday. We’ll give you a controversy. Eagles 24, Washington 13.

(Ed. Note: This preview was written before Heinicke was placed on the COVID reserve list as well. The Washington Football Team will be starting Garrett Gilbert, signed to the roster on Friday, at quarterback. You can probably move this one Off the Board as well. — Aaron Schatz)

Carolina Panthers at Buffalo Bills, Sunday, 1 p.m.

Matt Rhule plans to continue rotating Cam Newton and P.J. Walker based on whichever quarterback can be more conveniently blamed for Rhule’s coaching errors. Well, he didn’t say it that way, but it was pretty clear what he meant. Rhule also hinted that Sam Darnold could be in the mix down the stretch. Walkthrough considers this a threat, but the patient young woman who answers the phone at the FBI disagrees.

The Bills still have a 73% chance of making the playoffs. Glorified self-esteem workshops like this game are why. Bills 27, Panthers 14.

Arizona Cardinals at Detroit Lions, Sunday, 1 p.m.

Per ESPN’s Eric Woodyard, Jared Goff has a goal for the stretch run of the 2021 season: “Four straight wins. We’re trying to win every game,” Goff said on Monday. “I think your character shows in these last four games. You find out a lot about people in times like these, in times of adversity. I believe I know who’s in that locker room, so I don’t believe we’re going to find anything we don’t like, but it does test you.”

Speaking of tests, the Lions were still in the midst of the COVID/flu crunch that crippled the team against the Broncos as of midweek. It’s hard to question the mettle of the Lions locker room, but that’s unlikely to matter when no one is even allowed inside that locker room.

DeAndre Hopkins is out for the season with an ankle injury, but we’ll deal with that problem when it matters. Cardinals 30, Lions 16.

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins, Sunday, 1 p.m.

Walkthrough covered the Jets in Wednesday’s TankWatch and the Dolphins in Thursday’s Coming Off the Bye segment.

The Jets are expected to have running back Michael Carter back, which is great news, because Ty Johnson has hands like elbows. The poor fellow can’t catch a routine swing pass.

The Jets have at least two players named Michael Carter on their roster and possibly more; if you told me there were six of them I would rather believe you then spend any more time studying the Jets roster than I am required to. Some folks on Wednesday’s message board referenced DC Comics superhero C-lister Booster Gold, whose given name is Michael Jon Carter. For those who don’t know the story: Booster Gold is a quarterback from the future who was caught throwing college football games at the behest of his deadbeat dad; the disgraced Carter ends up working at a superhero museum, where he steals some tech and a time machine and travels to the “present day” in a misguided attempt to redeem himself.

Booster Gold’s football-themed origin story used to sound a little far-fetched, even by comic book standards. But after watching Urban Meyer coach for four months, anything is possible. Dolphins 26, Jets 16.