Taysom Hill, Fantasy Hero | Football Outsiders

NFL Week 15 – This time last season, rookie running backs such as Cam Akers and J.K. Dobbins were changing fantasy fortunes with their late-season breakouts. And although Javonte Williams has done the same the last couple of weeks, his pair of Sunday touchdowns may prove to be his fantasy swansong for 2021 with teammate and backfield work-sharer Melvin Gordon back healthy and with no more Lions games on the Broncos’ schedule. Instead, the fantasy managers in need of a lifeline at the start of the fantasy playoffs may have to rely on a quarterback.

Roster percentages are for ESPN/Yahoo.

Taysom Hill, QB, New Orleans Saints

57%/50%

Hill self-combusted with four interceptions in his 2021 debut as a starter in Week 13—perhaps because of his finger injury, pressure from his Cowboys opponent, his limitations as a passer, or some combination of the three. But if that represents the worst of Hill’s possible outcomes, I’ll take that in fantasy. That’s because he offset the turnovers with 101 yards on 11 carries and finished fourth at the position in fantasy scoring. Meanwhile, Week 14 demonstrated the ceiling. Hill had modest passing numbers but did not throw an interception, and he ran for 73 yards and a pair of touchdowns on another 11 carries. Hill now has 29.4 fantasy points just from his rushing the last two weeks. That’s the second-most of all players behind just Dalvin Cook at 32.5. Meanwhile, Hill is up to a 21.6-point average from the whole of his fantasy contributions in six starts in 2020 and 2021. That number would land him fifth among 2021 quarterbacks, just behind Kyler Murray at 21.9. Hill is hardly Murray’s equal in terms of real football value. But that just doesn’t matter for fantasy with his Saints’ lack of compelling alternatives at the position. I think Hill is a safe top-10 option at his position, even against a Bucs defense in the top 10 in run defense DVOA. Josh Allen demonstrated how different quarterback carries are to defend with 109 yards and a touchdown against the Bucs last Sunday afternoon. And I expect Hill to enjoy similar success against Tampa Bay on Sunday night.

Recommended FAB bid (% of maximum): 100%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: Yes

Rashaad Penny, RB, Seattle Seahawks

9%/20%

At least in the half of leagues where Taysom Hill is rostered, Penny will likely be the hottest waiver commodity of Week 15. And after his 138-yard, two-touchdown outburst on Sunday, I can’t disagree with that perspective with any confidence. Penny dominated his Seahawks backfield with 17 touches versus just eight for Alex Collins and two for DeeJay Dallas. And Penny played 57% of snaps, a season high by 14% and a rate Collins has not touched since before his groin injury in Weeks 5 and 6. But I would still be nervous to exhaust the bulk of my remaining FAB for the new Seahawks starter. For one, Penny benefited from 32- and 47-yard breakaway carries. And for another, Penny’s schedule will flip from friendly facing the Texans last week to unfriendly facing the Rams this week. The Texans are the No. 28 run defense by DVOA, and they increase run plays by 13% per game and rushing yards and touchdowns by 13% and 27% per carry. In contrast, the Rams have the No. 2 run defense and cut rushing yards and touchdowns by 11% and 18% per carry. The latter team would be a difficult matchup for any back. But they could be particularly difficult for Penny behind an offensive line that is seventh worst in run-blocking (3.98 adjusted line yards) and with teammate Travis Homer a possibility to return and eat into an already small target share. All told, I expect to rank Penny as a back-end flex option in PPR formats this week. And unless you are desperate for a back to start this week, I would rather save my FAB for a potential Week 16 injury beneficiary than spend what I expect it would take to land Penny this week.

Recommended FAB bid (% of maximum): 21%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Joshua Palmer, WR, Los Angeles Chargers

1%/2%

If the NFL could redo its schedule, they might exchange that Sunday night Saints-Bucs game for the Chargers-Chiefs Thursday night offering. But since those matchups are set in stone, the latter adds an interesting wrinkle for fantasy players. Keenan Allen is on the COVID reserve list. And although the star receiver is reportedly vaccinated and could be activated as soon as he turns in a pair of negative tests, he likely has COVID and may therefore need more than the 10 days he’ll have since his first positive test to recover. If I rostered Allen or needed a wide receiver for Week 15 for whatever reason, I would treat the rookie Palmer like a top-shelf running back handcuff. Palmer demonstrated his value as a substitute on Sunday with 66 yards and a touchdown on seven targets, the most on the team. And while Jalen Guyton enjoyed the better fantasy day, the latter player saw the bulk of his production on one 59-yard touchdown pass and played just 59% of the team’s offensive snaps, a similar rate to the 53% to 55% ones he played the previous three weeks. Guyton is a deep threat and could provide an explosive play any week. But Palmer played the typical Allen role, increasing his snap share from between 30% to 42% from the last month to 87% on Sunday. And with Justin Herbert as his quarterback, Palmer could have WR2 value this week even with his limited professional experience.

Recommended FAB bid (% of maximum): 11%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

D’Onta Foreman, RB, Tennessee Titans

58%/60%

Foreman may not have Penny’s upside as a clear No. 1 in his backfield. In Week 14, Foreman played fewer snaps (32%) than his more versatile teammates Jeremy McNichols (38%) and Dontrell Hilliard (34%). And he may owe his carry advantage of 13 versus eight for McNichols and six for Hilliard to a run-benefiting game script as the Titans blew out the Jaguars. But if those committee concerns cut his required waiver expenditure into the single digits of FAB percentage, then Foreman could be an underrated fantasy option in at least deeper formats thanks to his touchdown potential. The 236-pound back is the clear heir to Derrick Henry’s early-down role with the team and has been unlucky to score just once in Weeks 12 and 14 with his 1.5 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns. That former total matches Hilliard in the same timeframe, but Foreman has dominated Hilliard with 10 versus one red zone carries and targets and four versus one carries and targets within 5 yards of the end zone. With an eye to that important fantasy consideration, Foreman should be a decent flex option in Week 15. His opposing Steelers may have an intimidating defensive reputation, but they rank just 24th in run defense DVOA this season and are small boosters of run plays per game and rushing yards and touchdowns per carry.

Recommended FAB bid (% of maximum): 6%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, New England Patriots

42%/56%

Bill Belichick was his usual chatty self and offered a non-update on Damien Harris’ hamstring injury to reporters coming out of a Week 14 bye. And so unless there is more definitive news on Harris before the waiver deadlines on Tuesday night, I would roster Stevenson as a priority handcuff. He may be the No. 2 back on the Patriots, but Stevenson has better efficiency numbers in his 52.0% rushing success rate and 2.6 yards after contact per attempt than Harris does at 49.4% and 2.4. He would be an RB2 if Harris missed this Saturday’s Colts game even in the dome in Indianapolis and even facing a Colts defense that is better against the run (fourth in DVOA) than the pass (15th), factors that should swing the Patriots’ run/pass ratio dramatically back toward the pass.

Recommended FAB bid (% of maximum): 5%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Jeff Wilson, RB, San Francisco 49ers

45%/63%

It may not be fair to claim that Wilson dominated the 49ers backfield on Sunday even as he out-snapped teammate JaMycal Hasty 59% to 20% and out-touched him 13 to 0. Alleged wide receiver Deebo Samuel was back from a one-game absence and back to his breakaway carry ways. Samuel has five or more carries in four straight games. And he has five rushing touchdowns in those last four games, more than twice as many as the 49ers’ actual running backs can claim in that time. But Wilson was a lead back in Week 14 and could be again in Week 15 with Elijah Mitchell still recovering from a concussion and a knee injury. And although Samuel has made it a moot point in recent weeks, Wilson would be a good bet to score if the 49ers had more chances in the red zone. He is ninth among backs with 50 or more touches with 4.98 touchdowns and 22nd with 4.08 expected touchdowns per 100 carries and targets since the start of 2020.

Recommended FAB bid (% of maximum): 5%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Van Jefferson, WR, Los Angeles Rams

72%/71%

Star Rams receivers Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham combined for 200 yards and two touchdowns on Monday night. That overshadowed Jefferson’s 58 yards and a score. And you might be tempted to think Jefferson was lucky to score with just two targets. But Jefferson has followed the script for almost two months at this point. Leading into this weekend, Jefferson had an 18.6% target share since Week 7 that was just 38th among wide receivers. But he was tied with Ja’Marr Chase for the positional lead with 4.3 expected touchdowns in that timeframe. And Jefferson saw another two end zone targets on Monday: one that he nullified with an offensive pass interference and one that Matthew Stafford overthrow through the back of the end zone. He may be his team’s No. 3 receiver, but Jefferson should continue to score and support a high-end flex value because of it.

Recommended FAB bid (% of maximum): 5%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions

11%/12%

St. Brown’s game-winning touchdown catch from Week 13 may seem like a fluke with the Lions winless in their other 11 games and with the questionable Vikings defensive approach that allowed it to happen. But the rookie receiver is looking less and less a fantasy fluke of late. After playing 75% of snaps just once the first 10 weeks, St. Brown has played 85%, 98%, 96%, and 75% of snaps the last four weeks. And he has seen 12 targets each of the last two weeks. His total of 24 targets since Week 13 is tied for third-highest at his position behind just Chris Godwin (34) and Justin Jefferson (29). And while the Lions’ Week 15 opponent, the Cardinals, rank third in pass defense DVOA, they have done more damage to No. 1 wide receivers than slot receivers this season. They have cut the former players’ touchdown rate by 24% but increased the latter’s rate by 31%.

Recommended FAB bid (% of maximum): 5%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Justin Jackson, RB, Los Angeles Chargers

2%/2%

If both Phillip Lindsay and Jackson were temporary No. 1 backs with similar circumstances, I would likely prefer the latter despite the former’s better accomplishments and reputation. But Lindsay strikes me as the better FAB gamble as the more likely of the two to have a workload boost in Week 15. Austin Ekeler left Sunday’s Chargers game with an ankle injury, but head coach Brandon Staley told reporters that Ekeler was OK. He may be ready to play even on the team’s short week. And while Jackson has more than doubled his teammates Joshua Kelley’s and Larry Rountree’s totals with 11 versus five and two targets this season, the trio has played eerily similar totals of 108, 106, and 107 snaps this season. With all three likely to be active if Ekeler couldn’t go, Jackson would be a difficult player to trust in a committee in the fantasy playoffs, especially facing a Chiefs team that has ascended to third in run defense DVOA since Week 6.

Recommended FAB bid (% of maximum): 3%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Michael Carter, RB, New York Jets

63%/63%

Carter may not be a trustworthy fantasy option in Week 15 either. He is eligible to return from injured reserve, but high-ankle sprains have variable recovery schedules. I’d prefer to see him play a game before I started him in an important fantasy matchup. But if you have the bench space to stash him, Carter has tremendous upside for the final weeks of the fantasy playoffs. He led all running backs with 7.8 targets per game between his bye in Week 6 and his last healthy start in Week 10. And that rushing and receiving versatility offers him an appealing fantasy floor with the Jets likely to fall behind the Dolphins and Bucs the next few weeks and forced to throw.

Recommended FAB bid (% of maximum): 3%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Russell Gage, WR, Atlanta Falcons

45%/52%

Gage does not share Tyreek Hill’s elite speed or Hunter Renfrow’s exceptional short-area quickness. But Gage has matched his fellow slot receivers with a 24.7% target share since Week 8 when Calvin Ridley stepped away from his Falcons team. Ridley could conceivably return to the team on short notice. But until he does, Gage is their de facto No. 1 receiver and a decent flex option in PPR formats.