Big Ben, Steelers Set to Shine on Thursday Night

NFL Week 14 – The new 18th week of this NFL season throws a wrench in some fantasy plans. It may even cost you the best player in fantasy with Jonathan Taylor and the Colts on bye in this first week of many fantasy playoffs. But fortunately for those managers, one can always play the matchups. Even with weather less of a factor than usual in early December with little chance of precipitation and just Green Bay with a sub-40-degree temperature in the forecast, home/road considerations and opponent tendencies offer opportunities to gain one or two fantasy points in the most extreme matchups. And I’ll try to break it all down for you to help keep your fantasy seasons alive.

The following tables feature the players with the best and worst matchups of the week. Each listed player shows a true-talent (TT) ranking that represents how I would rank him with a perfectly neutral game context. Then, that ranking is adjusted by adding the context of the venue (Ven)—home and road and dome and outside—the forecasted weather (Wea), and opponent tendencies (Opp). The line beneath those rankings shows how much those contextual factors move projected PPR fantasy points. That total (Tot) number gives you a comprehensive estimate of how many fantasy points the player will score this week more or less than his typical total.

You can see our full weekly projections with projected stats, matchup adjustments, and fantasy points by subscribing to FO+.

Quarterbacks

The Vikings suffered the ultimate NFL embarrassment in their loss to the Lions last week and seem to have a much more difficult test against the Steelers tonight. But with 340 passing yards and two touchdowns, Kirk Cousins was his usual productive self, and the Steelers have suffered more on defense than offense this season whatever the public perception. Last year’s No. 1 ranked defense by DVOA is down to 27th this year, just one spot ahead of the Lions. And while the Steelers cut passing touchdown rate by a modest 6%, they cut interception rate by 42%, a top-10 rate in football. With the benefits of his home dome standing in contrast to wintery weather with temperatures in the 40s and moderate winds across the country on Sunday, Cousins jumps a spot from eighth in my true talent to seventh in my weekly quarterback rankings. And both he and Ben Roethlisberger are full-week DFS options, particularly in FanDuel, where their $7,400 and $6,800 salaries are presumably depressed by the narrative of their declines that their passing statistics do not quite match.

Best DraftKings Values: Taysom Hill ($1,000 underpriced at $5,600), Cam Newton ($900 underpriced at $5,400), Justin Herbert ($200 underpriced at $7,100)

Best FanDuel Values: Kirk Cousins ($500 underpriced at $7,400), Ben Roethlisberger ($500 underpriced at $6,800), Taysom Hill ($200 underpriced at $7,700)

In DraftKings, I’m more interested in the running quarterbacks this week. Taysom Hill had a terrible debut as the Saints starter last Thursday that included four interceptions. But he’s a classic example of a player who is better in fantasy than he is in real life. Buoyed by his 11 carries for 101 yards, Hill finished in the top five at his position last week in fantasy scoring. And he’ll have a much easier defensive test in a Jets team ranked 32nd in pass defense DVOA than he did in the Cowboys (ranked fourth), and he will hopefully have better command of the football a week removed from the finger injury that clearly seemed to affect his throwing.

Cam Newton is a high ceiling/low floor play. That’s obvious just from his pair of Panthers starts this season. The first produced a 78% completion rate, 10 carries, and three total touchdowns; the second a horrific 24% completion rate and more interceptions (two) than touchdowns (one). I can’t claim I’m confident the good Newton will be back after his bye week. But at least through two starts, Newton has followed Sam Darnold’s pattern of better success with better protection. The Panthers have a porous and injured offensive line ranked 24th in adjusted sack rate. That undermanned unit allowed just five sacks and pressures in Newton’s better performance but 10 sacks and pressures in his Week 12 fall from grace. And fortunately for Newton, he’ll face a Falcons defense ranked last in adjusted sack rate on defense this Sunday.

Tom Brady won’t have 40-plus-mph winds to contend with in Tampa Bay this Sunday the way his old Patriots team did in Buffalo on Monday night that spurred their decision to throw just three pass attempts. In fact, Tampa is the only football city with temperatures above the 50s this weekend, and theirs will be pushing 80 degrees. But that doesn’t make the Bills a plus passing matchup. In fact, they are the No. 1 pass defense by DVOA, the No. 1 cutter of both passing yards (20%) and touchdowns (50%) per attempt, and the No. 3 promoter of interception rate (86%). And while the Bills are no pushover against the run with the sixth-ranked run defense DVOA, they have been susceptible to physical rushing attacks such as Jonathan Taylor and the Colts and Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson and the Patriots and are bottom-10 in power success rate allowed. And the Bucs fit that bill. They rank first in power success rate on offense, and I suspect they will lean on running back Leonard Fournette this week even if Monday’s weather game overstates the Bills’ tendency to shift their opponents’ pass/run ratio in favor of the run. With the matchup, Brady falls from his normal top-three perch to 11th at the position this week. I would avoid him in daily formats, and he may even be a bench in some shallow traditional leagues.

Worst DraftKings Values: Tom Brady ($900 overpriced at $7,600), Matthew Stafford ($700 overpriced at $7,500), Ryan Tannehill ($500 overpriced at $6,400)

Worst FanDuel Values: Josh Allen ($400 overpriced at $8,800), Tom Brady ($300 overpriced at $8,200), Derek Carr ($100 overpriced at $7,200)

Matthew Stafford quieted the concerns for the Rams offense with 295 passing yards and three touchdowns last week. But that outburst does not change the fact that he and his Rams teammates have been particularly sensitive to their matchups this season. Last Sunday’s opponents, the Jaguars, rank 31st in both overall and pass defense DVOA. But the team’s three previous opponents—the Titans, 49ers, and Packers—rank 19th, 17th, and 10th in pass defense DVOA and limited Stafford to five touchdowns and five interceptions in a trio of losses. This Monday looks even more extreme. His division-rival Cardinals rank third in pass defense DVOA, cut passing touchdowns by 12% per attempt, and increase interceptions by 32% per attempt. Stafford could benefit from the dome in Arizona. But I need to see him overcome a difficult matchup before I’ll pay up for his top-five DraftKings price.

Running Backs

Javonte Williams already looked like a future star running back. His 18.6% avoided tackle rate is the highest among backs with 100 or more carries this season and well ahead of the field with Rhamondre Stevenson (15.0%), Christian McCaffrey (13.0%), and AJ Dillon (10.9%) closest to him. But then Melvin Gordon missed last Sunday night with a hip injury, and Williams confirmed that future stardom with 178 total yards and a touchdown as a temporary featured back. I think there’s risk in assuming Williams wrestled control of the Broncos backfield with that outburst. Gordon has been excellent as well this season and even bests his rookie teammate with a 51.1% versus a 45.7% rushing success rate. But the team’s matchup with the Lions this weekend makes the point mostly moot. The Lions are bottom-10 in overall defense and run defense and increase rushing touchdown rate by 11%. And just as important, they tend to fall behind and increase their opponents’ run plays by 15% per game. Expect the Broncos to build a lead this weekend and find plenty of carries for both Williams and Gordon, assuming the latter can even play. I rank Williams 17th at the position with that assumption. And he would be a no-brainer top-10 play if Gordon missed another week.

Best DraftKings Values: Jamaal Williams ($1,800 underpriced at $5,500), Antonio Gibson ($1,200 underpriced at $6,000), Josh Jacobs ($900 underpriced at $6,200)

Best FanDuel Values: Jamaal Williams ($1,300 underpriced at $6,200), D’Onta Foreman ($700 underpriced at $5,900), Devonta Freeman ($600 underpriced at $6,300)

Javonte Williams’ DFS salaries increased by $400 and $1,000 after his Week 13 outburst. And while that doesn’t push him to overpriced and would leave him a strong value if Gordon were out again, it does leave his Broncos-Lions counterpart Jamaal Williams the top daily value at the position this week. The latter Williams faces a game script risk with the Broncos likely to build a lead, but that could end up a win for his fantasy production given that he saw five targets in a Week 12 loss to the Bears. With D’Andre Swift still sidelined with his shoulder injury and just seventh-round rookie Jermar Jefferson and converted defensive back Godwin Igwebuike on his depth chart, Williams should have a safe workload.

Antonio Gibson has seen 19 or more touches in four straight games and doubled his avoided tackle rate from 6.3% before his Week 9 bye to 12.6% since. I think he’s fully recovered from his early-season shin injury and have him top five in true talent at his position even assuming receiving back J.D. McKissic returns from his concussion this week. Still, Gibson falls outside of my top 10 this week because of his matchup. The Cowboys are better defensively against the pass (fourth in DVOA) than the run (19th), but their general excellence has helped them build leads and cut their opponents’ run plays by 14% per game and rushing touchdowns by 19% per attempt. Gibson may need to continue his run of seven and six targets the last two weeks to return RB1 value, and I’m not sure he’ll manage that if McKissic can play. Because while Washington has won four straight games, they have won the most recent three against Panthers, Seahawks, and Raiders teams ranked 28th, 17th, and 20th in overall team DVOA. The Cowboys are fourth.

Worst DraftKings Values: Chuba Hubbard ($1,100 overpriced at $5,900), Adrian Peterson ($600 overpriced at $4,700), Latavius Murray ($600 overpriced at $4,900)

Worst FanDuel Values: Chuba Hubbard ($800 overpriced at $5,700), Carlos Hyde ($800 overpriced at $5,000), Adrian Peterson ($500 overpriced at $5,100)

Rookie Chuba Hubbard took 12 or more carries in five starts for an injured Christian McCaffrey earlier this season. And now that McCaffrey is out for the rest of the year, it’s easy to assume Hubbard will pick up where he left off. I’m skeptical for a couple of reasons. First, Hubbard had that previous success with a more traditional Sam Darnold at quarterback. Newton tied his lead back with 10 carries in his better Week 11 performance and leads the Panthers with three carries inside the 5-yard line since he joined the team. Hubbard may not have many opportunities to score. Second, Hubbard has dropped 20.0% of his catchable targets this season. No other back with as many targets is above 16.1%, and the Panthers seem to have noticed. They signed Ameer Abdullah for Week 7, and he has out-targeted Hubbard 20 to five since his second week with the team. Hubbard may still hit his 12-carry benchmark on Sunday. But those carries could be empty calories in fantasy if they don’t come with catches or touchdown opportunities.

Wide Receivers

You don’t need my help to know to play Justin Jefferson, DeAndre Hopkins, Tyler Lockett, or Diontae Johnson in your traditional fantasy leagues. But it may surprise you to see that I have the other Jefferson, Van, ranked 22nd in true talent such that his plus Cardinals matchup vaults him into my WR2 range. The latter Jefferson has scored twice in three games since his teammate Robert Woods tore his ACL. And while that total might seem unsustainable given that Jefferson was already playing 80% or more of snaps before the injury and that the Rams have since added star receiver Odell Beckham. But Jefferson has been unlucky to score just three touchdowns since Week 7. His 4.4 expected touchdowns in that time rank first at his position, and his 17 red zone targets trail just his teammate Cooper Kupp’s total of 19. There’s enough good offense to support all three of the Rams receivers in fantasy. And I like Jefferson in particular with his divisional matchup. Because while the Cardinals have been top-10 decreasers of yards and touchdowns per target for both No. 1 and slot receivers, they have increased No. 2 receiver yards and touchdowns by 3% and 60% per target. Jefferson could be the beneficiary if the Cardinals place too much attention on Kupp and Beckham or simply don’t have the bodies to lock up so many exceptional receivers.

Best DraftKings Values: K.J. Osborn ($1,000 underpriced at $4,100), Randall Cobb ($700 underpriced at $3,700), Josh Reynolds ($300 underpriced at $4,100)

Best FanDuel Values: Laviska Shenault ($700 underpriced at $5,300), K.J. Osborn ($700 underpriced at $5,500), Van Jefferson ($600 underpriced at $6,100)

It may not seem odd that Justin Jefferson is my No. 1 receiver this week. But his second-place true talent ranking is up a few spots with a projected target increase following teammate Adam Thielen’s high-ankle sprain. And typical slot receiver K.J. Osborn is up even more compared to usual and stands out as a top daily value at just $4,100 and $5,500 in DraftKings and FanDuel. Osborn had played a consistent 48% to 63% of snaps between Weeks 2 and 12 but shot up to 92% after Thielen went down last Sunday. And Osborn also saw seven targets, three more than he had in the best of his previous five weeks. Expect that increased workload to continue while Thielen is out with a thin depth chart of receivers such as Dede Westbrook and usual special teamers Dan Chisena and Ihmir Smith-Marsette behind him.

Amon-Ra St. Brown was the hero of the first Lions victory this season. But his 12 targets, 86 yards, and touchdown on Sunday are not representative of his typical involvement. Even since his snap shares increased in Week 11, St. Brown has averaged just 6.7 targets per game, tied for 32nd among wide receivers. I have him in that range as my 36th wide receiver in true talent. But his ranking falls further this week on the road in Denver facing a Broncos defense that, while disappointing with the 20th ranked DVOA, has been better against the pass (16th) than the run (25th) and is unusually deep in its secondary. The Broncos are a top-half cutter of both yards and touchdowns per target for No. 2 and slot receivers. I would leave St. Brown on fantasy benches until he offers an encore performance or at least sees a better matchup.

Worst DraftKings Values: Terry McLaurin ($1,800 overpriced at $7,000), Darnell Mooney ($1,100 overpriced at $5,700), Courtland Sutton ($800 overpriced at $5,300)

Worst FanDuel Values: Terry McLaurin ($900 overpriced at $7,100), DK Metcalf ($800 overpriced at $7,300), Darnell Mooney ($600 overpriced at $6,400)

Darnell Mooney has enjoyed a No. 1 receiver workload with a top-seven 27.8% target share since Allen Robinson injured his hamstring in Week 9. But that share is likely to mean a lot fewer than Mooney’s recent 10 targets per game with Justin Fields back under center. Fields may not be worse than his veteran substitute Andy Dalton (although his -38.0% passing DVOA is markedly worse than Dalton’s -14.9% rate), but like Cam Newton, Fields’ style is not conducive to the fantasy success of his wide receivers. Even excluding the anemic passing production from his first three starts that featured poor game plan fits, Fields has averaged just 28.8 pass attempts and 206 passing yards and thrown for just three total touchdowns in his last four healthy starts. Mooney could have a Davante Adams kind of target share and would struggle to reach WR2 value. And with his actual projected share, Mooney fell from 14th to 41st in my wide receiving rankings this week with the switch at quarterback. And he would fall further from there if Robinson returned to action.

Tight Ends

Darren Waller has yet to practice since he suffered a strained IT band in his knee on Thanksgiving. But he and the Raiders are at least optimistic he could suit up this Sunday. And as the Chiefs have ramped up their run defense in recent weeks and settled into being a top-10 increaser of tight end yards (21%) and touchdowns (28%) per target, I would even consider backup Foster Moreau as a TE2 if Waller couldn’t play. Moreau underwhelmed with one catch for 34 yards in that spot last week, but that’s in the mix for everyone at the position below the Waller/Kelce/Kittle tier. Moreau fared much better with six catches, 60 yards, and a touchdown in his Week 6 start. Meanwhile, I think Moreau is a good player. His 11.2 yards per catchable target nearly match Waller’s 11.3 yards per catchable target since the former player entered the league in 2019. And both rates are top-12 at the position among players with 50 or more targets in that time.

Best DraftKings Values: Pharaoh Brown ($600 underpriced at $3,000), Ricky Seals-Jones ($0 underpriced at $3,600), Evan Engram ($0 underpriced at $3,500)

Best FanDuel Values: Ricky Seals-Jones ($600 underpriced at $4,500), Pharaoh Brown ($500 underpriced at $4,600), Pat Freiermuth ($300 underpriced at $5,200)

Logan Thomas avoided the worst case of an ACL tear last Sunday. But his landing on injured reserve again ends his forgettable 2021 season and opens the fantasy door for his backup Ricky Seals-Jones. Seals-Jones is one of the rare tight end handcuffs—he finished 15th in target share and 16th in total PPR points among tight ends between Weeks 5 and 10 when he last served as a temporary starter. And he’s poised to pick up that TE2 value this week now that he’s back at practice coming off his own hip injury. His $4,500 FanDuel salary is tied for 36th-highest at his position. But even in a minus Cowboys matchup, I rank him in my top 20.

Pat Freiermuth has dramatically exceeded my expectations for any rookie tight end. Since JuJu Smith-Schuster went out for the season, Freiermuth has seen his snap share vault to a consistent 70% or more. He’s 15th at the position with a 16.4% target share and second with 3.5 expected touchdowns since Week 8. That justifies his top-10 true talent ranking. But his Vikings opponent is death to even the best fantasy tight ends. They are a top-four cutter of tight end catch rate (16%) and touchdowns per target (47%). That doesn’t knock Freiermuth to the TE2 range with the dearth of quality options behind him. And it doesn’t even make him a clear fade in DFS with a $5,200 FanDuel price that is just 15th-highest at the position. But I wouldn’t count on a Freiermuth touchdown this week, whatever his recent reliability in that area in recent weeks.

Worst DraftKings Values: Kyle Pitts ($1,300 overpriced at $5,500), Rob Gronkowski ($700 overpriced at $6,000), T.J. Hockenson ($700 overpriced at $5,300)

Worst FanDuel Values: Rob Gronkowski ($500 overpriced at $7,000), Tyler Higbee ($300 overpriced at $5,500), Kyle Pitts ($300 overpriced at $5,900)

T.J. Hockenson overcame that difficult Vikings matchup last week with a touchdown. But more broadly, he has underwhelmed with an average of just five targets and 34 yards per game in his last four games. An improving rookie in Amon-Ra St. Brown and a recent addition in Josh Reynolds may not be starting at wide receiver for other teams, but they are better than anything the Lions had in September and October and allow Jared Goff to avoid tunnel vision for his No. 1 tight end. With another difficult tight end opponent in the Broncos—they are the No. 1 cutter of touchdown rate at 74% for the position—I would pick a different top-tier option if I wanted to spend money on a tight end this week in DFS.