Alabama Takes Down Georgia to Clinch Playoff Berth

NCAA Conference Championship – In a a college season that felt as unstable and unpredictable as any has in a long time, we still sit at the end of the season with Alabama and Georgia in the College Football Playoff. The No. 2 Crimson Tide entered the SEC Championship Game a 6.5-point underdog yet handed the No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs their first loss of the season, 41-24.

Perhaps the best way to contextualize Alabama’s win against Georgia is to compare it to the rest of the Bulldogs’ season. Georgia had not allowed a team to score more than 17 points in a game all season; they allowed a team to score in the double-digits in just four of their 12 games. The Bulldogs offense, on the other hand, scored 30 in 11 of 12 games and 40 in seven of them. In fact, the 41 points allowed to Alabama was the most allowed by a Kirby Smart defense since Georgia’s defense allowed 44 in a loss to Florida in 2020. Georgia’s defense held opponents to -0.235 EPA/play before the SEC Championship Game; Alabama’s offense averaged 0.296. Georgia’s defense held opponents to a 33.3% passing success rate; Alabama was successful on 50.0% of passes, averaging 16.2 yards per completion.

Georgia held Alabama to punts and 46 total yards on their first two drives, but on the third drive, a 67-yard Bryce Young-to-Jameson Williams strike landed for a touchdown and served as a vision of what was to come. Williams accounted for 14.6 total EPA and 184 total yards on the day, averaging 26.3 yards per completion against a Georgia defense that had allowed just four passes longer than 26 yards all season. On the first two drives, Young and Alabama threw for 38 yards on eight attempts. The rest of the game? 383 yards on 36 attempts, 10.6 yards per completion. Young, pressured on 37.5% of his attempts, averaged 0.439 EPA/pass and accounted for 19.3 total EPA through the air. Alabama’s passing attack offered Georgia’s defense a threat they had not seen all season, and the Tide came out ahead.

Meanwhile, Georgia’s offense played decently well, but a key second-half sequence derailed their chances. In the first drive of the half, the Bulldogs moved the ball 56 yards, but Stetson Bennett was intercepted at the Alabama 19. Georgia had a chance to pull the game back within one score, or at least within striking distance with a field goal, but came away with nothing. The next drive, The Bulldogs had first-and-10 at the Alabama 20 and threw three straight incompletions, failing a fourth-and-9 to again come away with nothing. Finally, the dam broke and Bennett threw his second interception of the day and the Crimson Tide made him pay: Jordan Battle returned the ball 42 yards for a touchdown to make the game 38-17.

Lost in the 17-point deficit, and perhaps pertinent to the playoff, is the fact that Alabama’s offense scored just once (a field goal) on its last four drives as Georgia’s defense largely frustrated the Tide. This of course, only contributes to the looming quarterback decision for Kirby Smart, but had Bennett not thrown one interception, had Georgia not been scoreless on two trips inside Alabama’s 20-yard line, we might be looking at a different outcome. With Alabama taking the No. 1 seed in the playoff and Georgia No. 3, a rematch is certainly on the table.

Elsewhere, No. 4 Michigan took care of business this weekend, stomping No. 35 Iowa 42-3 in the Big Ten Championship Game. The Wolverines ran over Iowa, rushing on 54.1% of early downs, averaging 0.498 EPA/rush and a 52.2% rushing success rate against the nation’s 20th-best rushing efficiency defense. Michigan led a boring 21-3 going into the fourth quarter, but the game was broken open by a blocked Iowa punt and an interception thrown by Alex Padilla that gave the Wolverines two 36-yard fields for easy touchdowns. Iowa missed only four tackles on the day, as Michigan’s Hassan Haskins played the role of a bruiser, averaging 3.3 yards per attempt, 2.35 yards after contact. Black Corum had a 67-yard run, and in all, five Michigan rushers had runs of 10 or more yards and averaged more than 0.250 EPA/rush as Iowa’s defense was on skates the entire game. For context, Michigan’s offense ran just 16 non-garbage plays in the second half.

The Wolverines finish their regular season with the most wins and highest win percentage since their 1997 AP National Championship team. They are the No. 2 seed in the playoff and will hope to follow Alabama’s blueprint to defeat the Georgia Bulldogs.

Toe Drags

• In the Big 12, No. 15 Baylor and No. 7 Oklahoma State played a thriller. Down five with 1:40 left on the clock, Oklahoma State had seven chances to score from inside Baylor’s 15-yard line, but came up short, losing 21-16. In Dave Aranda’s second year, Baylor wins the Big 12 Championship Game for the first time in school history. In a game full of mistakes (six total turnovers), Baylor was the team who took advantage most. Baylor’s offense, playing backup quarterback Blake Shapen in place of injured Gerry Bohannon, looked about in line with their season averages, benefitting greatly from turnovers and special teams: all 21 of their points came on three drives starting at the Oklahoma State 11, the Oklahoma State 37, and the Oklahoma State 47. The crazy part? Baylor left points on the table. Two other times the Bears found themselves in Cowboys territory, and both times the Bears’ offense stalled and they missed field goals.
   
  Oklahoma State’s offense had every opportunity to win this game: down 21-13 in the fourth quarter, the Cowboys took advantage of a Baylor fumble to march 29 yards and had first-and-goal at the Baylor 1. The Cowboys lost 2 yards and settled for a field goal, sealing their fate.
   
  With the loss, Oklahoma State finds themselves out of the playoff and without a conference title in one of their best regular seasons ever. The Bears head to their third New Year’s Six Bowl ever, looking for their first program win.
   
• Cincinnati made history by being the first Group of 5 team allowed to participate in the playoff. In winning the American Championship Game 35-20 against No. 53 Houston, the No. 8 Bearcats completed 2021 as the only undefeated FBS team. The Bearcats did not move the ball exceptionally well against the Cougars; Houston’s defense ranked sixth in EPA/play this season, and it showed. They held Cincinnati to just a 37.8% success rate on the day. The Bearcats had touchdown runs of 79 yards and 42 yards, along with a 21-yard pass for a touchdown after a Houston interception. Outside of those three plays, Cincinnati averaged 6.13 yards per play, but just 3.42 on 26 rushes. That might be enough to work against the American Athletic Conference and a team ranked 46th in EPA/play offense, but might not exactly be a winning formula against Alabama.
   
• No. 18 Pittsburgh won the ACC Championship Game, their first conference title since joining the conference. They outlasted No. 22 Wake Forest 45-21 in a game that was a shootout for the first three possessions, after which Wake Forest led 21-14. From that point on, the game turned into a classic Pat Narduzzi slugfest. Over the next seven possessions, Pittsburgh scored a touchdown after returning a punt to the Wake Forest 32-yard line and snuck in a last-minute field goal as time expired in the first half.
   
  Wake’s offense was frazzled, punting six times after Sam Hartman’s first of four interceptions on the day. Despite its explosiveness all season, the Wake offense could hardly move the bally against Pitt, averaging -0.124 EPA/play and a 39.3% success rate. The Wake Forest defense actually played well, surprisingly, given Pitt’s offensive outburst this season. Pitt scored 21 points on three drives that began in Wake Forest territory; on 12 drives where the Panthers started on their own side of the field, Wake Forest held them to just 17 points, 1.42 points per drive. Adding to that, Kenny Pickett struggled with accuracy down the field, throwing an on-target pass just nine of 16 attempts 10 or more yards down the field. Pitt’s defense intercepted Hartman four times, though, and the easy scores resulting from that put this game far out of reach. Pittsburgh will face Michigan State in its first New Year’s Six Bowl, and Wake Forest gets Texas A&M in the postseason.
   
• No. 6 Utah provided some pretty clear evidence that their recent dismantling of the No. 31 Oregon Ducks was no fluke; the Utes almost exactly repeated their performance two weeks ago, winning 38-10 in the Pac-12 Championship game. Yet again, Utah completely filibustered Oregon’s run game, holding the Ducks to a 34.5% success rate and -0.515 EPA/rush. Utah quarterback Cam Rising threw two interceptions (-3.97 total EPA on the day), but they proved to be immaterial as Oregon failed to score off either turnover. Meanwhile, Oregon’s Anthony Brown averaged -0.311 EPA/pass and completed only 54.2% of his passes, with 61 of his 147 total yards (41.4%) coming on the final drive, down 38-3.
   
  Despite having one of the best wins of the season, against Ohio State in Columbus, Oregon’s 2021 ended up altogether forgettable. With rumors of a coaching change on the horizon, the Ducks will head to the Alamo Bowl to play Oklahoma in a game that many predicted would have been a playoff matchup to start the season. Utah, after starting the season 1-2, has now won nine of 10 and heads to the Rose Bowl to face Ohio State.
   
• In Conference USA, the No. 52 UTSA Roadrunners completed a special season with a dramatic win over No. 46 Western Kentucky, 49-41. The Roadrunners had a 28-13 halftime lead, despite a great day from Western Kentucky’s dynamic quarterback Bailey Zappe. Zappe ended the day with an absurd 577 passing yards, 53.9 total EPA through the air, and four touchdowns. He threw two interceptions in the second half, one of which led to what may have been the decisive UTSA touchdown as the Hilltoppers outscored the Roadrunners 28-21 in the second half. This offensive outburst was somewhat expected, and both teams delivered. UTSA’s Frank Harris had 36.2 total EPA through the air and 6.08 on the ground, accounting for 299 total yards.
   
  UTSA will face San Diego State, losers of the Mountain West Championship game, in the Frisco Bowl. Meanwhile, Western Kentucky will reach their third bowl in three years under Tyson Helton, facing Appalachian State in the Boca Raton Bowl.
   
• And finally, peaking of App State, the Sun Belt Championship Game featured a matchup between familiar faces: No. 36 Appalachian State and No. 48 Louisiana faced off for the seventh time in four years, the third time they have met in the Sun Belt Championship Game. Louisiana raced out to a 17-7 halftime lead, but App State barely pulled within a score in the second half. Louisiana running back Emani Bailey averaged 8.4 yards per carry for 117 yards and 6.84 total EPA. App State’s Chase Brice had a rough day through the air, completing only 12-of-30 passes for -14.7 total EPA as the Mountaineers averaged -0.249 EPA/pass and a 33.9% success rate. Louisiana sends coach Billy Napier off to Florida on a high note, and the Cajuns will be right at home playing Marshall in the New Orleans bowl this year.

OFI Top 15: Championship Week

Here’s my final top 15 before bowl season, with raw EPA/game ratings and change in rankings from last week presented:

1. Alabama +31.2 (+2)
2. Michigan +25.8 (-)
3. Georgia +30.2 (-2)
4. Cincinnati +24.3 (+1)
5. Ohio State +37.4 (+1)
6. Notre Dame +30.6 (+1)
7. Utah +22.5 (+3)
8. Pittsburgh +35.3 (+1)
9. Oklahoma State +25.0 (-5)
10. NC State +21.2 (+1)
11. Arkansas +12.1 (+1)
12. Ole Miss +6.1 (+1)
13. Louisiana +14.3 (+1)
14. Houston +22.3 (-8)
15. Baylor +10.8 (NR)