NFL Next Gen Stats Team Says Zimmer ‘Got Every…

Vikings Head Coach Mike Zimmer was aggressive in Sunday’s game at SoFi Stadium, and it paid off with a 27-20 win over the Chargers.

NFL.com’s Next Gen Stats Analytics Team looked at big decisions in Week 10 games across the league and said Zimmer “got every call right” in the Vikings victory. The following was written about Zimmer’s success:

Zimmer and the Vikings have quietly been among the sharpest NFL teams on fourth down this season. Across 51 fourth-down situations when the optimal choice helped the team’s chances of winning at a greater rate than one percentage point, Zimmer has made the correct decision 86.3 percent of the time (44 times), the best mark in the league this season and a figure up significantly from Zimmer’s effort last season (69.1 percent, 25th-best in 2020).

Getting all seven decisions correct on the road against a coach (Brandon Staley) with proven fourth-down shrewdness is a good way to give your team the best chance to win. Really, though, the defining moments of the game came in two second-half decisions to keep the offense on the field. The latter of the two clinched the win for Minnesota in the game’s final minutes.

FOURTH QUARTER: With 2:32 remaining and the Vikings (leading 27-20) facing a fourth-and-2 from the Chargers’ 36-yard line, Dalvin Cook picked up a game-sealing first down (4-yard gain).

The Next Gen Stats Analytics Team noted that if the Vikings offense converts in the above situation, “the game is virtually over.” If Minnesota didn’t convert on the fourth-down attempt, however, its chances of winning drop to 85 percent, according to the NGS win-probability model.

By combining each possible outcome with the chances of each happening (i.e., Minnesota had a 55-percent chance of converting in this situation, compared to a 44-percent chance of making a 54-yard field goal), we find Zimmer made the optimal decision in keeping his offense on the field in this situation, by a factor of 2.9 percentage points in expected win probability value.