Florida, Michigan State Among Week’s Biggest Upset…

While the lack of parity in college football has been long discussed, one thing is true: no one is safe. While talent is concentrated at the top, and school athletic dollars are sometimes hilariously imbalanced, there’s always the chance that a “just OK” team can line up and shock a “pretty good” team, and often the chance that a flat-out “bad” team can upset a “very good team.” In Week 10, we got both of those types of games, even as a few top teams rolled. Let’s examine a few of these key upsets, talk about why they happened, and break down what they mean for the national picture.

Note: All rankings below refer to FEI.

Upset No. 1: No. 50 North Carolina 58, No. 6 Wake Forest 55

Who knew 2021 would be the year of the Wake Forest shootout? The Demon Deacons have scored 35 or more points in all nine of their games, allowing 30 or more in four of their last five. Saturday, despite a touchdown lead at the half, Wake fell to North Carolina and lost their undefeated season.

The Tar Heels got their biggest win of the year thanks to success in three key areas. First, they converted 58.8% of late-down attempts, extending drives nine times on late downs. Wake Forest converted only 47.4%, notably turning the ball over on downs twice in the fourth quarter. By winning the late-downs matchup, North Carolina gave themselves more opportunities to keep pace with Wake’s high-powered scoring offense.

Secondly, North Carolina capitalized on short fields, scoring touchdowns on drives of 42, 21, and 35 yards after two interceptions and a turnover on downs. Meanwhile, Wake Forest had to work for their points, with all but two touchdown drives starting more than 70 yards from the North Carolina goal line. In all, the field position advantage was decisively in the Tar Heels’ favor: they started drives, on average, on their own 35.0, whereas Wake Forest started theirs own their own 30.7-yard line. Adding injury to insult in this game, perhaps, is the fact that Wake Forest had first-and-goal at the North Carolina 1 and first-and-10 at the North Carolina 28 and came away with field goals on those two drives. Again, in a three-point game, that stings.

The third and final reason for the upset? North Carolina’s rushing offense. The Tar Heels averaged 0.302 EPA/rush in the game. For reference, they had been averaging 0.174 EPA/rush on the season. Wake Forest’s defense had no answer as Ty Chandler and Sam Howell combined for 20.24 total EPA, 317 total yards, and six touchdowns. Wake’s defense ranked 79th in rushing EPA/allowed (0.068) and the Tar Heels took advantage, riding Howell and Chandler’s legs to a victory.

What does this mean for the national outlook? Well, North Carolina was favored by Vegas lines, so this upset comes with a bit of an asterisk. As far as the ACC? Wake takes its first loss, but oddly enough, this was a non-conference game. So while this loss makes the Demon Deacon’s slim College Football Playoff hopes that much slimmer, they still have a one-game lead on North Carolina State and a two-game lead on Clemson, the two teams they’ll face next on the schedule. Those two games will be pivotal for the ACC Atlantic division; can the Demon Deacons conjure up enough offense to stay on top? Wake Forest still controls its destiny, and will have plenty of shots at quality wins down the stretch to shore up a one-loss playoff resume, but don’t be suprised to see Clemson lurking around the ACC Championship Game.

Upset No. 2: No. 31 Purdue 40, No. 20 Michigan State 29

For the second time this season, the Purdue Boilermakers took down an undefeated conference foe. After handing No. 2 Iowa a 24-7 loss earlier in October, Purdue hosted Michigan State on Saturday and delivered another batch of season-spoiling. Quarterback Aiden O’Connell threw for 31.8 total EPA and 536 total yards on 54 attempts as the Boilermakers offense ran circles against Michigan State’s defense. The Spartans had mostly gotten by in 2021 with a suffocating rush defense (-0.096 EPA/rush, 23rd in the nation) and mediocre pass defense (0.027 EPA/pass, 55th in the nation). Jeff Brohm and Purdue decided to force the issue, running the ball just 29 times. The Spartans rush defense held up (1.9 yards per rush, -0.589 EPA/rush allowed), but the pass defense suffered, allowing 0.569 EPA/attempt and three touchdowns through the air. Most notably, Purdue converted third and fourth downs at will (66.7% of attempts). Their lack of finishing ability in the second half was worrisome, but proved to be irrelevant as they scored on five of six second-half drives, kicking field goals on four of them.

On the other side of the ball, Michigan State moved fairly well. Running back Kenneth Walker III averaged 6.3 yards per carry, totaling 146 yards on the day, and four Spartans receivers had 30 or more yards. Michigan State fumbled in Purdue territory on their first drive, missed a field goal later in the first half, and threw an interception after a first-and-10 from the Purdue 15 in the second half, arguably leaving at least 13 points on the field in an 11-point game. The Spartans were also the beneficiaries of a short-field touchdown (41 yards) to pull the game within one score right after halftime, but a 16-0 run by the Boilermakers sealed the game.

The road to the Big 10 Championship Game just got that much tougher for Michigan State, as they are now behind the eight ball with a conference loss and games against Ohio State and Penn State left on their schedule. 2021 has been a surprise for Mel Tucker’s team, and a New Year’s Six game is still within reach. The Michigan State loss does take a bit of shine off of Ohio State’s resume, theoretically, and with one loss, the Buckeyes would like all the help they can get in securing a playoff seed. But the Spartans have a chance to right things against Maryland before facing off in a couple of Big Ten championship eliminator matches down the stretch.

Upset No. 3: No. 66 TCU 30, No. 18 Baylor 28

Does anyone want to challenge Oklahoma State for the second-best team in the Big 12, or is the conference destined for a back-to-back Bedlam matchup in 2021? The Baylor Bears, after consecutive thumpings of West Virginia and Texas, looked much more like the inexperienced yet talented team most people thought they’d be in 2021 against TCU on Saturday. The Bears tried to challenge the Horned Frogs’ poor rush defense (123rd nationally in EPA/rush allowed at 0.221), rushing on 66.7% of early down,s but were held to just 0.065 EPA/rush, a season low. Baylor’s offense had reached 400 total yards of offense in five of eight games this season, and TCU had given up 400 total yards of offense in six of eight games, but the Bears failed to reach the mark despite a 125-yard and 4.68 total EPA performance from running back Abram Smith. Overall, quarterback Gerry Bohanon looked flustered, throwing two interceptions on the day, including one to kill a potential game-winning drive.

The story of the day for TCU has to be backup quarterback Chandler Morris, who led all FBS quarterbacks with 32.80 total EPA on Saturday. Morris, an Oklahoma transfer from Highland Park near Dallas, threw for 461 yards and rushed for 70, finding receiver Quentin Johnston for 142 yards and a touchdown. TCU, perhaps playing with a “nothing-to-lose” attitude and a little fire after long-time head coach Gary Patterson stepped down last Sunday, put together their best defensive performance of the season, intercepting Bohanon twice in Frogs territory, staving off the comeback.

Baylor, with one conference loss and a win over Iowa State, seemed poised to play their way into the Big 12 Championship Game, but a loss here sets them back; the Bears are down in the tiebreaker to Oklahoma State and have Oklahoma and a surging Kansas State left on the schedule. This loss is probably enough to relegate Baylor out of the playoff conversation, but a Big 12 championship is still in reach, with a little magic.

Upset No. 4: No. 89 South Carolina 40, No. 7 Florida 17

Not many Florida fans had “23-point loss to South Carolina” on their agendas Saturday, yet here we are. The Gamecocks amassed 35.67 total EPA to the Gators’ 9.77, holding Florida to just 27.3% on late-down conversions and -0.238 EPA/play. The Gamecocks had an 87.5% quality possession rate, scoring on all five first-half drives and adding a fumble returned for a touchdown to take a 30-10 halftime lead. South Carolina averaged 0.303 EPA/play to Florida’s 0.128 and started drives on their own 31.5, while Florida started drives on average at their own 22.4.

This was a beatdown in all facets of the game. South Carolina running back ZaQuandrew White amassed 7.73 total EPA, averaging a 58.3% success rate on runs, and quarterback Jason Brown averaged 0.132 EPA/pass as the Gamecocks handed the Gators their third straight loss and perhaps the most embarrassing defeat of the Dan Mullen era.

In terms of national significance, this game has little beyond the following. First, South Carolina gets a vote of confidence in head coach Shane Beamer. In a year where expectations were low, Beamer’s first at the school, a win over Florida is something to rally around all offseason and onto the recruiting trail.

Second, Mullen’s job security has plummeted, with reports about his potential interest in NFL jobs surfacing and discontent in Gainesville running high. Should the Florida job open, the intricate web of coaching changes gets that much more complicated, and the Florida job might be the biggest domino to fall yet.

TOE DRAGS

• In the SEC, No. 1 Georgia ran over No. 93 Missouri 43-6 and No. 2 Alabama outlasted No. 41 LSU 20-14 as the two teams continued their march towards what feels like an inevitable matchup in the SEC Championship Game. Georgia quarterback Stetson Bennett averaged an absurd 1.202 EPA/pass and the Bulldogs held Missouri to -0.330 EPA/pass in their blowout win, while Alabama let LSU hang around a little too long for comfort. Alabama gained 15.42 total EPA to LSU’s 2.90, and the Tide capitalized on LSU turnovers to score touchdowns on drives of 58 and 39 yards to secure the win.
   
  Meanwhile, No. 17 Texas A&M upset No. 13 Auburn 20-3. Running back Isaiah Spiller topped 100 yards and the Aggies returned a fumble for a touchdown in the win; neither team scored an offensive touchdown.
   
• No. 5 Ohio State had a near-miss with No. 29 Nebraska, 26-17 as the Cornhuskers did what they do best under Scott Frost: lose a close game they probably should’ve won. Nebraska held Ohio State to 0.112 EPA/pass (the Buckeyes were averaging 0.459 coming into the game), but the Cornhuskers failed to capitalize on a turnover on downs and an interception by the Buckeyes early.
   
• No. 8 Oklahoma State continued its quiet dominance this season, besting No. 57 West Virginia 24-3 while holding the Mountaineers to -0.447 EPA/rush and -0.376 EPA/pass. They have one loss and two teams with losing records on their schedule before hosting Oklahoma to end the season, presumably with the Big 12 championship on the line.

OFI Top 15, Week 11

1. Georgia +50.1
2. Alabama +45.8
3. Ohio State +29.0
4. Oklahoma +10.35
5. Cincinnati +19.1
6. Michigan +13.5
7. Oregon +13.9
8. Oklahoma State +23.8

Michigan and Oklahoma State move up after quiet and strong performances this weekend, while teams above them stumbled. Cincinnati falls behind Oklahoma as the Bearcats have played with their food a bit the last few weeks and their efficiency numbers have trailed with them.

9. Coastal Carolina +28.7
10. Houston +35.8
11. Michigan State +2.39
12. Wake Forest +27.0
13. UTSA +30.53
14. Texas A&M +14.17
15. Notre Dame +14.8

UTSA bumps up a spot after a solid win over in-state rival UTEP; the Roadrunners are undefeated and slowly creeping up in the polls with a relatively weak schedule remaining. Texas A&M and Notre Dame, two teams who have been hovering outside the top 15 for weeks, take the spots of Auburn and Baylor. Notre Dame has won four straight since losing to No. 5 Cincinnati, and Texas A&M’s dismissal of Auburn demonstrated their defense is one of the best units in the country.

Hovering: Ole Miss, BYU, Wisconsin, North Carolina State, Penn State.

Out: Baylor lost to 3-5 TCU and Auburn looked feckless in a 20-3 defeat at the hands of Texas A&M.