Bulldogs Stomp Gators in Toughest Test Yet

Week 9 of the 2021 season should go down as one of the most fun weeks in college football. We saw upsets of ranked teams (Wisconsin over Iowa, Miami over Pittsburgh, West Virginia over Iowa State), we saw powerhouses duke it out (Ohio State and Penn State, Michigan and Michigan State, Baylor and Texas, Florida and Georgia), and we saw a wild and crazy late-night schedule (SMU and Houston, Virginia and BYU). Let’s dive in!

Author’s note: This week, I have included my pre-game projected scores in the headers, as I feel they give a nice baseline expectation for what we would see in these games, and comparing models to reality is a good way to understand what happened better.

No. 1 Georgia 34, No. 7 Florida 7

Pregame Projected Score: Georgia 34.5, Florida 23.1
Postgame Expected Score: Georgia 24.9, Florida 9.5 (86% Postgame Win Expectancy)
EPA/play: Georgia 0.010, Florida -0.205
Eckel Ratio: Georgia 54.5%

Georgia and Florida traded blows in the first quarter, with both teams punting twice and missing a field goal. In the second quarter, though, the Georgia defense showed up, and the wheels came off for Florida. Florida moved the ball relatively well on their first drive of the second quarter, getting across Georgia’s 40, but they decided to attempt a fourth-and-13 attempt instead of taking a field goal. The Gators then intercepted Stetson Bennett, but proceeded to turn the ball over on three straight possessions. Georgia scored two touchdowns on two plays, an 11-yard James Cook run and a 36-yard touchdown pass from Bennett to Kearis Jackson. Georgia’s fourth first-half score came off an Anthony Richardson interception, and the game turned from a 3-0 fistfight into a 24-0 halftime rout in the course of about two minutes of game time.

In terms of expected points, Florida added -17.3 total EPA in the first half, and they missed a field goal. The second half proved almost inconsequential as Georgia ran 14 non-garbage plays while Florida tried desperately to close the gap. Overall, Georgia’s defense performed as well as expected against one of the better statistical offenses they have faced. The Bulldogs defense was holding teams to -0.325 EPA/play coming into the game (first in the nation—and in history), while the Gators offense averaged 0.138 (24th in the nation). Georgia held Florida to -0.205 EPA/play and a 41.1% success rate. Starter Anthony Richardson amassed -14.9 total EPA, while in some garbage time, Emory Jones added 6.76 total EPA to make the number more palatable, but Florida’s offense had an awful showing against Georiga—which is becoming the norm these days.

Georgia’s offense had little required of them, but they performed well. The Bulldogs averaged +0.010 EPA/play and a 50% success rate in scoring 27 points against the Gators. Bennett completed only 52.6% of his passes but accounted for 3.59 total EPA, and receiver Kearis Jackson added 6.62 total EPA on three receptions.

The Bulldogs had an average starting field position of their own 40.8, highly inflated by the turnovers, and had five quality possessions to Florida’s six. Georiga scored 4.5 points per quality possession while Florida scored only 1.4, including two missed field goals. On separate drives, Florida had first-and-10 at the Georgia 11, at the Georgia 28, at the Georgia 31, and at the Georgia 36, and came away with a total of zero points. The Bulldogs defense had played offenses ranked 127th, 86th, 125th, 111th, 43rd, 61st, and 54th coming into this game, and so there were legitimate concerns about quality of opponent and how good this defense really is. On Saturday, the Bulldogs put those to rest and placed themselves firmly at the top of college football.

The Bulldogs will have to guard themselves against a slip-up in their last four games; they face Missouri, Tennessee, and an FCS opponent before traveling to Georgia Tech in a rivalry game. All three FBS opponents are outside the top 50. As for Florida, at 12th in EPA/play margin but with a 4-4 record, the Gators have a claim to the title of “best bad team in college football.” They have four games to get bowl eligible and to settle their quarterback situation.

No. 3 Ohio State 33, No. 15 Penn State 24

Projected Score: Ohio State 35.7, Penn State 14.6
Expected Score: Ohio State 27.5, Penn State 24.3 (57.8% PGWE)
EPA/play: Ohio State 0.045, Penn State 0.036
Eckel Ratio: Ohio State 53.8%

The consensus Vegas spread heading into this game was Ohio State -18.5 points, but at no point in this game did it look like the Buckeyes would be able to pull away. With a finally-healthy Sean Clifford, the Penn State Nittany Lions stayed within a single score of Ohio State for 57 minutes of game time. The Nittany Lions averaged 0.036 EPA/play and held the Buckeyes to just 0.045. For reference, Ohio State’s offense averaged 0.389 EPA/play coming into the game on Saturday, first in the nation. Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud averaged 0.270 EPA/pass, completing 64.7% of his passes, but only threw for one touchdown, a 38-yard strike to Chris Olave. Olave had a quiet day otherwise, accounting for -3.72 total EPA. Where Penn State really held Ohio State was in the run game. The Buckeyes averaged 0.288 EPA/rush coming into the game with a 47.8% rushing success rate. Penn State held the Buckeyes to -0.180 EPA/rush and a 38.2% success rate, both season lows. Treveyon Henderson rushed for 152 total yards on 28 attempts (5.4 yards per carry) but was successful on only 39.3% of those runs.

Penn State’s offense attacked Ohio State’s weakness perfectly; the Ohio State secondary is a known commodity, allowing 0.072 EPA/pass (72nd) on the season, and Penn State went right after it. The Nittany Lions threw the ball 52 times, completing 35 of them, and only one went for longer than 30 yards. Instead, the Penn State passing offense was death by a thousand cuts, as Jahan Dotson and Parker Washington combined for 20 receptions, 235 total yards, and 14.82 total EPA. Penn State had six quality possessions to Ohio State’s seven, and they outscored the Buckeyes 4.00 points per quality possession to 3.71.

The real problem for Penn State was the inevitable Ohio State game-changing turnover. With first-and-10 on the Ohio State 37, Penn State’s Clifford was sacked and fumbled. Buckeyes defensive lineman Tyreke Smith, in an almost unparalleled feat of athleticism and grace, returned the ball 57 yards for a touchdown. That swing of -3.5 expected points for Penn State changed the narrative of the game from a potential halftime tie or lead to a two-score deficit barely mitigated by a late field goal. Down 17-10 instead of tied 10-10 or even up 14-10, Penn State couldn’t catch up in the second half. The two traded blows, but a Clifford interception with 11:15 in the fourth gave Ohio State a short field, and Penn State’s offense couldn’t do anything with a first-and-10 at the Ohio State 31 late.

Ohio State’s offense is still one of the better units in the nation, but this should be a wake-up call for Ryan Day and the Buckeyes. On their schedule, they still have to face teams currently ranked 15th, 17th, 24th, and 32nd in EPA/play margin. It’s a long road to Indianapolis, and Ohio State will need to iron out some wrinkles to make it there.

No. 26 Michigan State 37, No. 4 Michigan 33

Projected Score: Michigan 30.6, Michigan State 26.5
Expected Score: Michigan State 45.6, Michigan 26.6 (91.1% PGWE)
EPA/play: Michigan State 0.352, Michigan 0.026
Eckel Ratio: Michigan State 38.4%

At halftime, the Michigan Wolverines led their in-state rivals 23-14, and it arguably could have been worse. Michigan State quarterback Payton Thorne was sacked and appeared to fumble the ball, leading to a Michigan defensive touchdown and making the game a three-score affair. On review, Thorne was ruled down and Michigan settled for a punt return and a field goal to go up 23-14 instead of 27-14 or worse.

In the second half, Michigan State’s comeback was facilitated mostly by the Michigan offense. Despite a touchdown to extend the lead to 30-14, the Wolverines struggled, and three key plays cemented the Spartans’ comeback. First, Michigan fumbled on the first play of a drive at their own 45, giving Michigan State a 41-yard field for a touchdown. Then, down 33-37, the Wolverines failed a fourth-and-3 at the Spartans 31. Their next drive started at their own 33, and Cade McNamara threw an interception to ice the game.

That tale underscores how impressive Michigan State was in the second half, outscoring Michigan 23-10 and scoring touchdowns on three of their six possesions. The Spartans averaged 0.341 EPA/play in the first half, 0.362 in the second half. Their first-half efficiency was masked by two interceptions, one after a first-and-10 at the Michigan 44, and another after a first-and-10 at their own 45. The offense had moved the ball well, but those two mistakes allowed Michigan to jump out to a 10-0 lead. After that, Michigan State was in complete control. The defense allowed Michigan a 45.9% success rate and a 0.293 EPA in the first half but held the Wolverines to -0.204 EPA on a 41.9% success rate in the second half. It’s key to understand that discrepancy. In the first half, Michigan was moving the ball well and getting big plays (a 93-yard touchdown; passes of 15, 21, 21, and 17 yards; and a 24-yard run to boot). In the second half, they had just four plays longer than 15 yards, and only one longer than 20. The Spartans absolutely shut down Michigan’s big-play offense, letting the Wolverines move the ball underneath, and the Wolverines couldn’t keep pace.

Michigan State moves to 8-0 on the season, 15th in EPA/play margin, and they control their own destiny in the Big Ten East. Their November will be more than a test, with trips to Ohio State and Purdue and hosting a volatile but explosive Maryland and a rapidly improving Penn State. Mel Tucker’s turnaround of Michigan State has been supremely impressive, and the Spartans have every chance to play themselves into a conference championship.

Toe Drags

No. 47 Houston 44, No. 52 SMU 37
Projected Score: Houston 36.6, SMU 28.3
Expected Score: Houston 25.1, SMU 20.7 (61.1% PGWE)
EPA/play: SMU 0.201, Houston 0.102
Eckel Ratio: Houston, 53.8%

Any recap column would be remiss without including this game, a Group of 5 shootout that felt like the team who had the ball last would win. Turns out that was almost the case. Houston’s pass defense and SMU’s pass offense both ranked fifth in EPA/play; something had to give. The Cougars jumped out to a 17-0 lead, but SMU’s passing weapons proved their reputation wasn’t a fluke. Tanner Mordecai threw touchdowns of 43, 50, and 6 (on a fourth-and-1) yards to tie the game at 20. Houston scored on their first four first-half possessions, and SMU scored on three of their final four. The two traded touchdowns in the second half, sparked by SMU’s half-opening kickoff return for a touchdown. The two teams combined for 38 points in the second half, and the Houston defense got the edge with an interception early in the fourth quarter. Unable to regain the lead, SMU kicked a field goal to tie and the game seemed destined for overtime. With 17 seconds on the clock, Houston’s Dalton Witherspoon returned the kickoff 100 yards for a touchdown, and the Cougars pulled out the win in one of the most thrilling games of the season. Houston, largely forgotten after a season-opening loss to Texas Tech, improves to 7-1, undefeated in the American Athletic Conference, and ranks 11th in EPA/play margin. They do not play Cincinnati in the regular season but should get a chance at the reigning champs in the conference championship game. They’re playing at a high-enough level that they could give the Bearcats a test.

No. 17 Auburn 31, No. 9 Ole Miss 20
Projected Score: Auburn 39.6, Ole Miss 30.4
Expected Score: Auburn 24.5, Ole Miss 12.9 (78.9%)
EPA/play: Auburn 0.127, Ole Miss 0.052
Eckel Ratio: Auburn 46.7%

Who is Bo Nix? I’m asking. Nix seems like the perfect encapsulation of Newton’s Third Law: For every reaction, there is an equal and opposite reaction. For every 13-of-27 performance against Georgia State, there is an equal and opposite 22-of-30 performance against Ole Miss. Nix is now at 62.2% completion rate on the season, and Auburn moves to 6-2 with losses only on the road to Penn State and at home versus Georgia. With this win, Auburn sits a half-game behind Alabama in the SEC West Standings. They’ll face Texas A&M, Mississippi State, and Alabama in the coming weeks, which means Brian Harston, in his first year at Auburn, controls his own destiny in terms of the division title.

No. 20 Baylor 31, No. 8 Texas 24
Projected Score: Baylor 27.8, Texas 25.6
Expected Score: Baylor 27.9, Texas 20.7 (68.6% PGWE)
EPA/play: Baylor 0.224, Texas 0.035
Eckel Ratio: Baylor 53.8%

Baylor moves to 7-1 after simply playing well enough not to lose yet again. The Bears threw two interceptions and missed a field goal in the first half, falling to a 14-10 deficit, but yet again Steve Sarkisian’s team failed to hold onto a lead. Baylor scored touchdowns on three straight drives to start the second half, marching 75 and 80 yards and capitalizing on a 53-yard short field to pull away from the Longhorns and continue their race for the Big 12 Championship Game. Baylor moves up to 18th in EPA/play, and offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes is putting on a clinic of how to handle a young and unpolished quarterback. Gerry Bohanon threw for two interceptions and no touchdowns, completing only 58% of his passes, but there was little pressure on Bohanon in the second half; the run game drew so much attention that Bohanon had plenty of leeway to make plays. Baylor has lost to Oklahoma State, and they still have Oklahoma and an improving Kansas State left on the schedule, so they’ll need some help down the stretch, but it’s hard to say anything negative about what Dave Aranda has done in Year 2 in Waco.

No. 56 Miami 38, No. 16 Pittsburgh 34
Projected Score: Pittsburgh 31.7, Miami 19.7
Expected Score: Pittsburgh 54.0, Miami 45.6 (28.3% PGWE)
EPA/Play: Miami 0.334, Pittsburgh 0.388
Eckel Ratio: Pittsburgh, 43.8%

Pittsburgh falls to Miami as Kenny Pickett threw 55 passes, three touchdowns, and two interceptions. Receivers Jordan Addison, Taysir Mack, and Jared Wayne combined for 315 total yards, and the Panthers averaged 0.503 EPA/pass, but the story of the day was the Miami pass offense. Tyler Van Dyke threw for three touchdowns, 19.08 total EPA, and 426 total yards as the Hurricanes just outraced the Panthers. Even more troublesome for the Panthers’ defense? Miami only started drives at their own 22.6, and five of their six scoring drives were longer than 60 yards. For Pitt, it even could have been worse—Miami threw an interception after a first-and-10 at the Pitt 34, as well. The Panthers had their shots to pull out the win; they missed a field goal after a first-and-10 at the Miami 26, failed to convert a first-and-goal at the 5, and threw the final interception after a first-and-10 at the Miami 23 to fail to come back. Pat Narduzzi’s team has had a rollercoaster the last two weeks, beating Clemson but falling to Miami. They only have one conference loss, but to get to the ACC Championship Game, will have to avoid giving up these passing performances with the explosive Virginia and North Carolina offenses left on the schedule.

OFI Top 15

1. Georgia +41.8
2. Alabama +54.5
3. Ohio State +28.0
4. Cincinnati +22.6
5. Oklahoma +10.3
6. Michigan State +10.3
7. Oregon +13.24

These are the clear top seven teams in the country. Oregon moves up out of attrition more than anything, and Michigan State takes Michigan’s spot with a win.

8. Michigan +11.5
9. Wake Forest +37.5
10. Coastal Carolina +33.9

Michigan hardly gets dinged for losing on the road to a top-10 team, and Wake Forest and Coastal get a clear bump from attrition. Coastal slides behind Wake as they have struggled as of late; the win against Troy was far too close for comfort.

11. Houston +41.5
12. Oklahoma State +27.7
13. Auburn +24.4
14. UTSA +30.5
15. Baylor +5.3

Houston debuts as the clear third in the Group of 5 and the largest threat to Cincinnati in the American Athletic Conference. The Cougars’ pass defense is underrated. Oklahoma State wins against a bad Kansas team and looks to be turning a corner. Auburn finds its way into the rankings as they are improving week over week. Baylor cracks the top 15 from attrition—they are simply playing well enough to be ahead of some others.

Hovering: SMU, Notre Dame, Ole Miss, Kentucky, Minnesota.

Out: Iowa State, Pittsburgh, Virginia, and Kentucky all stalled in Week 9. Kentucky, the largest faller, seems to be unraveling on offense.